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Công ty Cổ phần Xây lắp Đường ống Bể chứa Dầu khí

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuUPCOMCT
1.300
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+22.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
1.300
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
1.588

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→−1.50B
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→1.300
Calibrated value vs last close→+22.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
1.588
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA−1.5 tỷyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·222249262267267306289335368344192211552··
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.721342343342573137··
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·18619921919919723422526028723345120312··
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·4412331321.01.03338··
Net Inventories
·344640646466607047658956197··
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·48625175757770724981111131234··
Other current assets
·2222240.30.60.54146··
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000046··
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·31333538414552607392798396··
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000.060.060.060.20.712200··
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000.060.060.060.20.712200··
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·31333438414552586778647286··
Tangible fixed assets
·31323434364045475564645561··
Leased assets
·0000000.744401722··
Intagible fixed assets
·00.40.934567890.090.10··
Other non-current assets
·0.30.090.10.030.100.010.11410131110··
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.30.090.10.030.100.010.114101365··
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·253282296305308351341394441435271294648··
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·196226242251255287259291339356222273469··
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·194225241251254286257286331344213273459··
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·912414314945458532833105··
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·18333133352935474650628152··
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·211.00.10.40.92581190.49··
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000.10.40.9257890.49··
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·58565554536381103101804920179··
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·58565554536381103101804920179··
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·200200200200200200200200200200200200200··
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·151515151515151515151577··
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−158−159−161−162−162−152−134−112−114−135−166−195−35··
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·253282296305308351341394441435271294648··
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·200200200200200200200200200200200200200··

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
63
Fair
Accrual Quality
99
Cash Conversion
53
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
34
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.25 · 84th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.92
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.803
GMI
1.388
AQI
3.591
SGI
1.158
DEPI
1.026
SGAI
1.059
TATA
0.002
LVGI
0.961

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.0347th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
1.7%46th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.79×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.2522 (84th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +0.92, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have moved materially this year. Earnings-quality components show strengths in accruals and receivables (accruals quality 99.1/100; receivables quality 100.0/100) but very weak revenue and margin signals (revenue quality 0.0/100; margin quality 33.5/100); the Altman Z-Score is -0.24 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.2522, Vietnam peer percentile 84th: the absolute M-Score is above the US -1.78 threshold and, within Vietnam, sits high versus peers — the percentile shows the company’s pattern of accruals and ratios is more aggressive than 84% of non-financial Vietnamese peers.
  • Year-over-year M-Score change +0.92: the M-Score moved substantially this year, and although single-year persistence is low, the direction is a secondary signal that accounting behaviour has changed.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 3.5906: a high AQI measures increases in the relative size of non-current assets, intangible-type items, or other non-standard asset reclassifications, which can indicate capitalisation or reclassification policies shifting balance-sheet composition.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.3877 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.1580 with Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 33.5/100: rising GMI (>1) and low revenue/margin quality indicate declining gross margins and very weak revenue-quality signals (the revenue-quality metric here scores 0), suggesting the reported sales and margins deserve scrutiny.
  • Altman Z-Score = -0.24 (distress zone): this Z-Score places the company in the zone associated with higher bankruptcy distance in the Altman model, reflecting weak liquidity/solvency ratios.
  • Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.03, 47th percentile: this middling cash-conversion metric (close to 1) indicates profits are not strongly turning into operating cash relative to peers — a lower percentile would flag cash conversion problems but here it is mediocre.
  • Accumulated losses = 0.79x paid-in capital: the company has accumulated losses equivalent to 79% of paid-in capital, a substantial historical loss position relative to capital.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.7% of total assets, 46th percentile: there are non-trade receivables / prepayments / loans classified outside the normal trade cycle that, while not extremely large, exist and should be checked for related-party or long-term terms.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 99.1/100: the accruals component scores very highly, indicating reported earnings are not being driven by unusual accruals in the periods measured.
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100: the receivables-quality metric scores at the top, suggesting no immediate sign of widespread receivable recognition issues in the tested measures.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = 0.0024: total accruals are very small relative to assets, supporting the high accruals-quality score and indicating reported profits are not dominated by large accounting accrual flows.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 6/9: a neutral-to-favourable fundamental score showing several healthy operating/fundamental signals (profitability, leverage, liquidity and efficiency items mixed but not deeply negative).
  • Owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and the company reports 0 consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025: the company is not reporting statutory consecutive-year net losses, and equity is positive.
Ownership Risk

Control is concentrated: PVX (Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Xây lắp Dầu khí Việt Nam) holds 51.0% and thus is the controlling shareholder. The company sits in a group where the same parent holds or exerts influence over multiple related listed entities (PFL 34.9%, PID 50.0%, PSG 24.7%, PVH 36.0%, PXI 51.0%, PXM 48.3%, PXS 51.0%), which can create intercompany business and related-party transaction patterns typical in Vietnamese group structures. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data set (no registered insider transaction intentions are listed here).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note(s) on related-party transactions and the disclosures to the line items that comprise the 1.7% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle (identify prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables).
  • Reconcile the components of AQI in the balance-sheet notes: check changes in ‘construction in progress’, intangible assets, deferred costs and reclassifications year-over-year to see what drove AQI = 3.5906.
  • Compare the cash-flow statement (operating cash flow) and the net-profit reconciliation to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 1.03) and identify major non-cash adjustments or working-capital movements.
  • Examine the revenue and margin disclosure schedules (revenue breakdown by segment/product and cost of goods sold detail) and the audit notes to explain why revenue quality = 0.0/100 and margin quality = 33.5/100 (look for one-off revenues, timing differences, or margin compression explanations).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
−0.24
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−1.56
Negative
Composite
41
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden−0.58×Op. Margin−0.03×Turnover0.46×Leverage4.40=ROE3.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
−55.6%
Volatility
91.0%
Max Drawdown
−65.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
14.43P/E
P/B
0.45
P/S
0.22
ROE
3.2%
ROA
0.7%
EPS
90
BVPS
2.878
Gross Margin
7.7%
Net Margin
1.6%
D/E
0.16
Current Ratio
1.14
Rev Growth
+15.8%
Profit Growth
+47.6%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
20.0M
Charter Capital
200B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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