PXS
Công ty Cổ phần Kết cấu Kim loại và Lắp máy Dầu khí
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 2.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 2.688
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.8%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.3%64th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 1.02×Statutory test met
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounts show mixed signals: a Beneish M‑Score of -1.57 (Vietnam peer percentile 78th, year‑over‑year +0.42) flags more aggressive accounting versus Vietnamese peers and a recent deterioration in the score; the Altman Z‑Score is -0.18 (in the distress zone), while the Piotroski F‑Score is 6/9 (neutral fundamentals). Earnings‑quality components show high accruals and receivables quality (79.6/100 and 87.5/100) but very weak cash conversion, margin and revenue quality (all 0.0/100).
- Beneish M‑Score = -1.57: measures the statistical likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios; the company sits at the 78th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive) and the M‑Score has risen by +0.42 year‑over‑year, indicating accounting measures have moved toward more aggressive settings this year.
- Altman Z‑Score = -0.18: measures distance to insolvency/bankruptcy; a negative score places the company in the distress zone, signalling elevated financial stress.
- Earnings Quality Score 37.4/100 with Cash Conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin Quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue Quality = 0.0/100: these three components indicate very weak cash generation relative to reported profits, poor margin stability, and concerns about revenue sustainability or recognition.
- TATA (total accruals) = 0.0509: the Beneish component TATA measures the size of total accruals relative to assets; while not large in isolation, coupled with Cash Conversion = 0.0/100 it suggests earnings include accrual components that are not being converted into cash.
- Accumulated losses = 1.02x paid‑in capital: the audited statements show accumulated losses exceed paid‑in capital, a statutory fact for FY2025 reported here (the company trades on UPCoM where HOSE/HNX delisting rules cited do not apply). This is a capital‑erosion indicator.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.3% of total assets (64th percentile): this line (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables) is material enough to warrant scrutiny given the low cash conversion score and the group structure.
- SGI (sales growth index) = 1.6591 and GMI (gross margin index) = 1.2587: SGI > 1 shows rapid sales growth (measures year‑over‑year sales growth); GMI > 1 indicates gross margins deteriorated versus the prior year—together they can be a pattern where growth accompanies worsening margins.
- Accruals quality = 79.6/100: indicates reported accruals, as measured, are relatively high quality versus peers on the accruals metric used here.
- Receivables quality = 87.5/100: on the metric applied, receivables look relatively high quality, despite the separate flagged 4.3% of assets being receivables outside the normal trade cycle.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 6/9: measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 6 is a neutral‑to‑positive score suggesting several healthy operational or balance‑sheet indicators.
- LVGI = 1.0780 and DEPI = 0.9173: LVGI (leverage/various liquidity index) modestly >1 and DEPI <1 (lower depreciation index) are not extreme; DEPI <1 suggests depreciation policies did not become markedly slower year‑over‑year.
The largest shareholder is PVX (Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Xây lắp Dầu khí Việt Nam) with 51.0% (control) as of 2026‑06‑30; the company sits within a group where the same parent controls or significantly influences several other listed affiliates (multiple holdings at or above 20–51%). No director‑deal registrations were provided in the input. The ownership is concentrated and tied to a large listed parent and a state‑linked sector group, which is relevant for related‑party, intra‑group transactions and VAS‑context reporting.
- Compare the FY2025 'Receivables and prepayments' schedule and the related‑party note: quantify the prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables that make up the 4.3% of total assets and identify counterparties (group/related parties).
- Reconcile profit to cash flows: compare the consolidated profit reconciliation to cash flows from operating activities in the cash flow statement to understand why Cash Conversion is 0.0/100 (look for large non‑cash items, working capital build, or one‑off adjustments).
- Examine the accumulated losses and paid‑in capital lines in the parent and consolidated statements and the equity note: verify the components that produce accumulated losses = 1.02x paid‑in capital and any disclosures about capital restoration or plans.
- Inspect the related‑party transactions note and intra‑group balances: given PVX’s 51.0% control and the group’s other listed subsidiaries, check for recurring prepayments, loans or services to group entities and the terms disclosed (interest, maturity, collateral).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.44
- P/S
- 0.14
- ROE
- 13.5%
- ROA
- 1.6%
- EPS
- 246
- BVPS
- 1.527
- Gross Margin
- 5.8%
- Net Margin
- 1.6%
- D/E
- 0.13
- Current Ratio
- 0.59
- Rev Growth
- +65.9%
- Profit Growth
- +48.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.80
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 60.0M
- Charter Capital
- 600B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT