Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.884
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 4.5190th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.4%53rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows a high Beneish M-Score of 1.0586 (96th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +3.14, driven especially by an AQI of 10.00 and an LVGI of 1.1330; however earnings-quality metrics are strong overall (Earnings Quality Score 94.4/100) while solvency and fundamentals are resilient (Altman Z-Score 4.55; Piotroski F-Score 6/9). Several mixed signals stand out: high M-Score percentile and AQI suggest accounting patterns that differ from most Vietnamese peers, but accruals, receivables and cash-conversion quality scores are excellent (100/100 each) and there are no accumulated losses or consecutive statutory net-loss years.
- Beneish M-Score = 1.0586 (measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation pattern; this value is at the 96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers, indicating more aggressive accounting relative to most local peers).
- M-Score year-over-year change = +3.14 (measures the change in the composite score year-to-year; a substantial rise is a secondary cue that accounting metrics moved materially compared with the prior year).
- AQI (Abnormal Accruals Index) = 10.0000 (part of the M-Score; measures unusually large abnormal accruals-based signals and is the single component with the highest value here).
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 4.51 (90th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; this measures the extent to which reported profits convert into cash over three years — a high percentile indicates profit is not turning into cash relative to peers).
- Margin quality = 50.0/100 (part of the Earnings Quality Score; lower than other sub-scores, indicating some weakness in persistence or stability of margins).
- Earnings Quality Score = 94.4/100 (an aggregate measure of accruals, cash conversion, receivables and margin qualities; indicates generally high reported earnings quality overall).
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 and TATA = -0.0042 (accruals measure and Total Accruals to Assets; the near-zero negative TATA and perfect accruals score indicate limited net upward accrual manipulation in the year measured).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.4% of total assets (53rd percentile; the low fraction of receivables outside the trade cycle suggests limited reliance on long-term/atypical receivables or supplier prepayments).
- Cash conversion quality = 100.0/100 despite the three-year ratio percentile: short-term cash-flow relationships appear high-quality in the year under review, and the company reports operating cash flows consistent with earnings in the latest period.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.55 (measures distance-from-bankruptcy risk using balance-sheet and earnings variables; this value places the company in the 'safe' zone).
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of financial strength; a 6 is a neutral-to-favorable score).
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive, and zero consecutive parent-net-loss years up to FY2025 (these are direct balance-sheet and profit-history facts).
Control is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam (an institutional/state-related owner) holds 62.7% (majority), with the next largest institutional holder at 3.4% and small free-float positions (largest individual 0.3%). Such concentration implies that corporate decisions and related-party flows should be read in the context of group and state involvement rather than dispersed shareholder oversight.
- Compare the FY2025 cash-flow statement's 'Net cash from operating activities' and its reconciliation note to reported net profit to inspect the drivers of the three-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 4.51).
- Review the notes for 'Receivables and other receivables' and the related-party transactions schedule to identify the composition of the 2.4% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
- Examine the accounting policy and supporting schedules for 'Accruals and provisions' and the movements table to validate the near-zero TATA (-0.0042) and the AQI components behind the AQI = 10.0000.
- Check the parent-company profit (separate financial statements) and the statement of changes in equity for FY2025 to confirm there are no accumulated losses, owner's equity is positive (excluding minority interest), and that there were zero consecutive net-loss years at the parent level.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.47
- P/S
- 0.08
- ROE
- 1.5%
- ROA
- 1.0%
- EPS
- 169
- BVPS
- 11.490
- Gross Margin
- 11.6%
- Net Margin
- 0.3%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 2.00
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.36
- Div Yield
- 1.9%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 8.9M
- Charter Capital
- 89.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT