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PVO

Công ty Cổ phần Dầu nhờn PV Oil

VietnamCyclicalsHóa chấtUPCOMCT
5.500
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+7.0%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
5.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
5.884

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hóa chất→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Hóa chất” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→3.94B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→5.500
Calibrated value vs last close→+7.0%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
5.884
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA3.9 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·121118123117101809083103163115181203
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·3736583528262110940141078
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.211660.20.2000805520
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·27302942371429334964584944
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·40.1313170.86162221
Net Inventories
·57393032343939354245426558
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·57393033354039364245426558
Other current assets
·1.00.90.7110.90.85250.623
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.90.8
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·41343433343638425140424651
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.10.050.030.030.030.030.030.030.040.040.0400
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.10.050.030.030.030.030.030.030.040.040.0400
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·31333333333537404513131413
Tangible fixed assets
·8987678101311111211
Intagible fixed assets
·2324252627282930321122
Other non-current assets
·0.80.70.70.80.9112627293238
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.80.70.70.80.9112627293238
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·163152157150135117128125154203156227254
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·6150554834152825519361129156
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·6150554834152725519361129156
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·000000007902520
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.070.50.40.020.10.040.030.060.050.30.90.44
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0000.20.20.20.20.20.20.1000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·102102102102101102100101103110969898
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·102102102102101102100101103110969898
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·89898989898989898989898989
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·1010109999985532
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·21210.520.50.83140.233
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·163152157150135117128125154203156227254
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·89898989898989898989898989

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
94
Good
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
50

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 1.06 · 96th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +3.14
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.765
GMI
1.056
AQI
10.000
SGI
1.170
DEPI
0.922
SGAI
0.943
TATA
−0.004
LVGI
1.133

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
4.5190th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
2.4%53rd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows a high Beneish M-Score of 1.0586 (96th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +3.14, driven especially by an AQI of 10.00 and an LVGI of 1.1330; however earnings-quality metrics are strong overall (Earnings Quality Score 94.4/100) while solvency and fundamentals are resilient (Altman Z-Score 4.55; Piotroski F-Score 6/9). Several mixed signals stand out: high M-Score percentile and AQI suggest accounting patterns that differ from most Vietnamese peers, but accruals, receivables and cash-conversion quality scores are excellent (100/100 each) and there are no accumulated losses or consecutive statutory net-loss years.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 1.0586 (measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation pattern; this value is at the 96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers, indicating more aggressive accounting relative to most local peers).
  • M-Score year-over-year change = +3.14 (measures the change in the composite score year-to-year; a substantial rise is a secondary cue that accounting metrics moved materially compared with the prior year).
  • AQI (Abnormal Accruals Index) = 10.0000 (part of the M-Score; measures unusually large abnormal accruals-based signals and is the single component with the highest value here).
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 4.51 (90th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; this measures the extent to which reported profits convert into cash over three years — a high percentile indicates profit is not turning into cash relative to peers).
  • Margin quality = 50.0/100 (part of the Earnings Quality Score; lower than other sub-scores, indicating some weakness in persistence or stability of margins).
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score = 94.4/100 (an aggregate measure of accruals, cash conversion, receivables and margin qualities; indicates generally high reported earnings quality overall).
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100 and TATA = -0.0042 (accruals measure and Total Accruals to Assets; the near-zero negative TATA and perfect accruals score indicate limited net upward accrual manipulation in the year measured).
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.4% of total assets (53rd percentile; the low fraction of receivables outside the trade cycle suggests limited reliance on long-term/atypical receivables or supplier prepayments).
  • Cash conversion quality = 100.0/100 despite the three-year ratio percentile: short-term cash-flow relationships appear high-quality in the year under review, and the company reports operating cash flows consistent with earnings in the latest period.
  • Altman Z-Score = 4.55 (measures distance-from-bankruptcy risk using balance-sheet and earnings variables; this value places the company in the 'safe' zone).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of financial strength; a 6 is a neutral-to-favorable score).
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive, and zero consecutive parent-net-loss years up to FY2025 (these are direct balance-sheet and profit-history facts).
Ownership Risk

Control is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam (an institutional/state-related owner) holds 62.7% (majority), with the next largest institutional holder at 3.4% and small free-float positions (largest individual 0.3%). Such concentration implies that corporate decisions and related-party flows should be read in the context of group and state involvement rather than dispersed shareholder oversight.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 cash-flow statement's 'Net cash from operating activities' and its reconciliation note to reported net profit to inspect the drivers of the three-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 4.51).
  • Review the notes for 'Receivables and other receivables' and the related-party transactions schedule to identify the composition of the 2.4% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
  • Examine the accounting policy and supporting schedules for 'Accruals and provisions' and the movements table to validate the near-zero TATA (-0.0042) and the AQI components behind the AQI = 10.0000.
  • Check the parent-company profit (separate financial statements) and the statement of changes in equity for FY2025 to confirm there are no accumulated losses, owner's equity is positive (excluding minority interest), and that there were zero consecutive net-loss years at the parent level.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.55
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.36
Negative
Composite
40
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.70×Interest Burden1.04×Op. Margin0.00×Turnover3.53×Leverage1.59=ROE1.5%
Price Risk
Momentum
−9.4%
Volatility
39.4%
Max Drawdown
−49.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
31.87P/E
P/B
0.47
P/S
0.08
ROE
1.5%
ROA
1.0%
EPS
169
BVPS
11.490
Gross Margin
11.6%
Net Margin
0.3%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
2.00
EV/EBITDA
2.36
Div Yield
1.9%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
8.9M
Charter Capital
89.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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