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Công ty Cổ phần Xăng dầu Dầu khí Nam Định

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtNước & Khí đốtUPCOMCT
7.500
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+8.4%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
7.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
8.132

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
2
Model Inputs
DPS source:EPS default
DPS→0
3
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→7.500
Calibrated value vs last close→+8.4%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
8.132
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate
Dividend per share0dps source: none in window
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·63781071137861172611121515991
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·668967791319127
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·403472782324434636151940
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·201066564440.40.30.4
Net Inventories
·1536272648291185611052143
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1536272748291185611052246
Other current assets
·3210.30.624221170.8
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·616059718090989591938995
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·263137455054585955585658
Tangible fixed assets
·242936434852565653555355
Intagible fixed assets
·222222223333
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·00.40.40.40.40.4333333
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·555555555566
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−5−5−5−5−5−5−2−2−2−2−3−3
Other non-current assets
·352821262835383433322932
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·352821262835383433322932
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·124138167184158151271156203243148186
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·80941251491271241948012716773113
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·75911201421161131846911315559102
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·0.60.2511235772332222
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·20.970.60.090.520.72212
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·54571011101114121511
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·20.50.6233223560
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·454442353127767776767573
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·454442353127767776767573
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·676767676767676767676767
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·777777776555
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−29−30−31−38−42−47233432
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·124138167184158151271156203243148186
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·676767676767676767676767

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
33
Weak
Accrual Quality
90
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
63
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
10

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −2.06 · 63rd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.17
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.068
GMI
0.975
AQI
1.368
SGI
1.104
DEPI
0.942
SGAI
1.033
TATA
0.025
LVGI
0.937

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.8740th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
15.8%87th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.43×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -2.065 (63rd percentile versus Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +2.17), signalling a move toward more aggressive accounting relative to peers rather than an absolute US-calibrated alarm. Earnings-quality subcomponents show high accruals quality (90.1/100) but very weak cash conversion (0.0/100), revenue quality (9.9/100) and margin quality (0.0/100). Altman Z-Score is 25.52 (large distance from distress) and Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral fundamentals).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -2.065 (63rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +2.17). The M-Score aggregates eight ratios to flag earnings manipulation; here the score sits below the US -1.78 threshold but ranks above most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially year-over-year, indicating a relative shift in accounting signals.
  • Cash conversion 3-year ratio 0.87 (40th percentile among VN non-financials). This measures operating cash flow divided by net profit over three years; being below 1 and in the lower half suggests profits are not consistently converting into cash.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle 15.8% of total assets (87th percentile). This line measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; a high percentile indicates substantial items outside ordinary trade receivables relative to assets.
  • Earnings-quality sub-scores: Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Margin quality 0.0/100. These scores quantify the company’s ability to turn reported profit into cash and to sustain margins; both are reported at the bottom of the scale.
  • Revenue quality 9.9/100 and M-Scores components: DSRI 1.0682 and SGI 1.1038. DSRI >1 indicates receivables growing faster than sales; SGI >1 shows sales growth that can be associated with pressure to manage earnings. Low revenue quality score corroborates concern over the sustainability or recognition pattern of sales.
  • AQI 1.3684 (accruals quality index >1). AQI measures growth in non-cash accruals; a higher value is associated with increased accruals activity, consistent with the relatively lower cash conversion.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality 90.1/100. This high score indicates that reported profit contains a smaller measured component of potentially problematic accruals behavior relative to the scoring model.
  • TATA (total accruals to total assets) 0.0247. This low absolute TATA indicates reported accruals are modest as a fraction of assets in the period measured.
  • DEPI 0.9421 and LVGI 0.9367 (both <1). DEPI <1 suggests no obvious pattern of lengthening depreciation lives; LVGI <1 suggests asset liquidation/gross margin pattern is not indicating large manipulation via inventory valuation.
  • Altman Z-Score 25.52 (safe zone). Z-Score uses balance-sheet and profit measures to assess bankruptcy risk; this very high value indicates a wide distance from financial distress by that model.
  • Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (neutral). Some fundamentals are positive or stable, and the score does not show extreme deterioration across profitability, leverage/liquidity, or operating efficiency metrics.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam holds 56.8%, and three other institutional shareholders together hold a further ~30.5% (14.5%, 9.0%, 7.5%), with one individual at 7.5%. The majority institutional stake suggests control is concentrated within a few entities (one large institutional owner plus other institutions); in the Vietnamese context that can reflect group or state-linked influence and associated related-party or group-transaction patterns.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 schedule/note for 'receivables and other long-term receivables' to the total assets line to verify the 15.8% figure and inspect counterparty descriptions (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, related-party designations).
  • Reconcile the consolidated cash flow from operating activities and the consolidated net profit in the FY2023–FY2025 notes to confirm the 3-year cash conversion ratio of 0.87 and identify the main reconciling items (changes in working capital, non-cash items, one-offs).
  • Inspect the revenue recognition note and the trade receivables ageing/terms to assess drivers of the Revenue quality score (DSRI 1.0682, revenue-quality 9.9/100) and whether sales growth (SGI 1.1038) is accompanied by longer collection terms or increased returns/allowances.
  • Review the related-party transactions note and the schedule of receivables/payables with related parties to determine whether the large apportioned receivables outside the trade cycle involve group/related-party balances, given the concentrated ownership and institutional group structure.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
25.52
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.13
Positive
Composite
9
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden−1.71×Op. Margin0.00×Turnover25.63×Leverage2.79=ROE2.3%
Price Risk
Momentum
+8.3%
Volatility
165.5%
Max Drawdown
−56.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
47.91P/E
P/B
1.12
P/S
0.02
ROE
2.4%
ROA
0.8%
EPS
157
BVPS
6.693
Gross Margin
3.0%
Net Margin
0.0%
D/E
0.06
Current Ratio
0.85
Rev Growth
+10.3%
Profit Growth
−33.0%
EV/EBITDA
8.66
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
6.7M
Charter Capital
66.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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