PND
Công ty Cổ phần Xăng dầu Dầu khí Nam Định
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 7.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 8.132
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.8740th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 15.8%87th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.43×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -2.065 (63rd percentile versus Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +2.17), signalling a move toward more aggressive accounting relative to peers rather than an absolute US-calibrated alarm. Earnings-quality subcomponents show high accruals quality (90.1/100) but very weak cash conversion (0.0/100), revenue quality (9.9/100) and margin quality (0.0/100). Altman Z-Score is 25.52 (large distance from distress) and Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score -2.065 (63rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +2.17). The M-Score aggregates eight ratios to flag earnings manipulation; here the score sits below the US -1.78 threshold but ranks above most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially year-over-year, indicating a relative shift in accounting signals.
- Cash conversion 3-year ratio 0.87 (40th percentile among VN non-financials). This measures operating cash flow divided by net profit over three years; being below 1 and in the lower half suggests profits are not consistently converting into cash.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle 15.8% of total assets (87th percentile). This line measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; a high percentile indicates substantial items outside ordinary trade receivables relative to assets.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Margin quality 0.0/100. These scores quantify the company’s ability to turn reported profit into cash and to sustain margins; both are reported at the bottom of the scale.
- Revenue quality 9.9/100 and M-Scores components: DSRI 1.0682 and SGI 1.1038. DSRI >1 indicates receivables growing faster than sales; SGI >1 shows sales growth that can be associated with pressure to manage earnings. Low revenue quality score corroborates concern over the sustainability or recognition pattern of sales.
- AQI 1.3684 (accruals quality index >1). AQI measures growth in non-cash accruals; a higher value is associated with increased accruals activity, consistent with the relatively lower cash conversion.
- Accruals quality 90.1/100. This high score indicates that reported profit contains a smaller measured component of potentially problematic accruals behavior relative to the scoring model.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) 0.0247. This low absolute TATA indicates reported accruals are modest as a fraction of assets in the period measured.
- DEPI 0.9421 and LVGI 0.9367 (both <1). DEPI <1 suggests no obvious pattern of lengthening depreciation lives; LVGI <1 suggests asset liquidation/gross margin pattern is not indicating large manipulation via inventory valuation.
- Altman Z-Score 25.52 (safe zone). Z-Score uses balance-sheet and profit measures to assess bankruptcy risk; this very high value indicates a wide distance from financial distress by that model.
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (neutral). Some fundamentals are positive or stable, and the score does not show extreme deterioration across profitability, leverage/liquidity, or operating efficiency metrics.
Ownership is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam holds 56.8%, and three other institutional shareholders together hold a further ~30.5% (14.5%, 9.0%, 7.5%), with one individual at 7.5%. The majority institutional stake suggests control is concentrated within a few entities (one large institutional owner plus other institutions); in the Vietnamese context that can reflect group or state-linked influence and associated related-party or group-transaction patterns.
- Compare the FY2025 schedule/note for 'receivables and other long-term receivables' to the total assets line to verify the 15.8% figure and inspect counterparty descriptions (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, related-party designations).
- Reconcile the consolidated cash flow from operating activities and the consolidated net profit in the FY2023–FY2025 notes to confirm the 3-year cash conversion ratio of 0.87 and identify the main reconciling items (changes in working capital, non-cash items, one-offs).
- Inspect the revenue recognition note and the trade receivables ageing/terms to assess drivers of the Revenue quality score (DSRI 1.0682, revenue-quality 9.9/100) and whether sales growth (SGI 1.1038) is accompanied by longer collection terms or increased returns/allowances.
- Review the related-party transactions note and the schedule of receivables/payables with related parties to determine whether the large apportioned receivables outside the trade cycle involve group/related-party balances, given the concentrated ownership and institutional group structure.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.12
- P/S
- 0.02
- ROE
- 2.4%
- ROA
- 0.8%
- EPS
- 157
- BVPS
- 6.693
- Gross Margin
- 3.0%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- 0.06
- Current Ratio
- 0.85
- Rev Growth
- +10.3%
- Profit Growth
- −33.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 8.66
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 6.7M
- Charter Capital
- 66.7B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Nước & Khí đốt
- Sub-industry
- Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
- Company Type
- CT