PTV
Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại Dầu khí
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.101
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −301.030th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.5%54th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.17×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 1
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The quantitative signals show multiple accounting and solvency concerns: the Beneish M-Score is -0.5962 (90th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.75, driven by a very high DSRI (4.1511) and extreme SGAI (6.4195); the Altman Z-Score is 0.41 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9. Earnings-quality metrics are extremely weak (overall score 0.1/100) with particular deterioration in accruals (0.4/100), cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables and revenue quality (both 0.0/100).
- Beneish M-Score -0.5962 (90th percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +1.75) — the M-Score aggregates eight ratios to flag earnings manipulation tendencies; the high peer percentile and upward trajectory suggest accounting behaviour has become more aggressive relative to Vietnamese peers even though the US-cutoff (-1.78) is not directly calibrated for Vietnam.
- DSRI = 4.1511 — the Days’ Sales Receivable Index measures receivables growth relative to sales; a value well above 1 indicates receivables are growing faster than sales and may signal revenue recognition or collectability issues.
- SGAI = 6.4195 — the Sales, General & Administrative expenses Index compares SG&A growth to sales; a very large value suggests SG&A rose disproportionately to sales, which can reflect one-off cost recognition choices or reclassification.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.3970 and Accruals quality = 0.4/100 — high accruals relative to assets and a very poor accruals-quality score indicate earnings rely heavily on non-cash accounting adjustments.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = -301.03 (0th percentile) — reported profits are not converting to operating cash; prolonged negative conversion is a liquidity and quality concern.
- Altman Z-Score = 0.41 (distress zone) — the composite bankruptcy-distance measure places the company in a zone historically associated with high financial distress risk.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 — weak fundamental-score result driven by the metrics above, consistent with fragile profitability, asset turnover or leverage.
- Earnings Quality Score 0.1/100 with Revenue, Margin and Receivables quality all 0.0/100 — the packaged earnings-quality sub-scores indicate almost no support from cash, margins or receivable behaviour for reported profits.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.5% of total assets (54th percentile) — the line items that include prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables are around mid‑peer levels in Vietnam, so there is not an unusually large balance classified outside trade receivables.
- Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and accumulated losses are 0.17x paid-in capital — the company has positive equity and accumulated losses have not exceeded paid-in capital, which are factual balance-sheet strengths.
- Statutory loss tests: the company is on UPCoM, and the Decree-based automatic delisting test that applies to HOSE/HNX audited statements does not apply here — this is a factual listing-context point that limits direct application of that statutory trigger.
Top ownership is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam holds 29.0%, Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Xây dựng Tràng An 23.1%, and an individual, Dương Công Ái, 16.9%; together these shareholders control a large majority. Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam is an institutional owner (likely state-related), and several other institutional holders hold 5.0% each, indicating group and insider influence in governance and related-party flows.
- Compare the FY2025 and prior years' trade receivables and 'receivables outside the trade cycle' note line by line to the DSRI drivers — check the sales denominators used in the calculation and disclosures on bad-debt provisioning.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cash-flow statement and the management discussion: trace the major accrual adjustments that produce the 3-year cash-conversion ratio of -301.03.
- Inspect the notes on related-party transactions, loans receivable, prepayments to suppliers and long-term receivables to explain the 2.5% of assets labelled 'receivables outside the trade cycle.'
- Examine the audit report, impairment and provisioning notes and the SG&A breakdown to understand the drivers of SGAI = 6.4195 and TATA = 0.3970 (large SG&A growth and high accruals).
- Check the balance-sheet equity and accumulated-loss disclosures to verify the 0.17x paid-in capital figure and confirm the statutory-loss test status and any auditor emphasis or going-concern paragraph, given the Altman Z-Score of 0.41.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.44
- P/S
- 0.73
- ROE
- −1.5%
- ROA
- −0.5%
- EPS
- −153
- BVPS
- 10.054
- Gross Margin
- 20.6%
- Net Margin
- −1.0%
- D/E
- 1.56
- Current Ratio
- 1.28
- Rev Growth
- −85.2%
- Profit Growth
- −1358.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 20.0M
- Charter Capital
- 200B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Dầu khí
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Thiết bị, Dịch vụ và Phân phối Dầu khí
- Sub-industry
- Thiết bị và Dịch vụ Dầu khí
- Company Type
- CT