PAP
Công ty Cổ phần Dầu khí đầu tư khai thác Cảng Phước An
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 27.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 25.434
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 10.3%81st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.23×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 5Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting-stress signals: a very high Beneish M-Score of 3.5562 (99th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) driven by large SGI (10.0000) and LVGI (1.6576) and an elevated AQI (1.3948). Earnings-quality metrics are mixed — accruals and receivables score 100/100 but cash conversion is weak (40/100) and margin quality is 0/100 — while solvency/distress indicators are poor (Altman Z-Score = -0.03) and the firm has reported parent net losses for five consecutive years.
- Beneish M-Score = 3.5562 (99th percentile among Vietnamese peers). The M-Score is a composite that signals the likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to peers; note the US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly transferable and about 28% of Vietnamese firms exceed it, so the peer percentile and year-on-year trend are material to interpretation.
- Beneish components: SGI = 10.0000 (sales growth index), LVGI = 1.6576 (leverage growth index), AQI = 1.3948 (asset quality index), DSRI = 0.0387 (days' sales in receivables index), DEPI = 0.0835 (depreciation index), SGAI = 0.1430 (SG&A index), TATA = -0.1209 (total accruals to total assets), GMI = 0.0000. The extremely high SGI and elevated LVGI/AQI drive much of the M-Score.
- Altman Z-Score = -0.03 (distress zone). The Z-Score measures distance to bankruptcy; a negative score indicates low cushion against insolvency risks by the model.
- Earnings-Quality: overall 64.7/100 but with Margin quality = 0/100 and Cash conversion = 40/100. Margin quality of 0 indicates deterioration or volatility in reported profit margins; low cash conversion indicates earnings are not being converted into operating cash.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 10.2% of total assets (81st percentile). The figure aggregates prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables — these are sizable relative to peers and may affect cash flow reliability.
- Net loss at parent level in 5 consecutive years up to FY2025 and audited statements show losses in each of the latest 3 years. These are factual results in the published statements and trigger statutory-loss tests for HOSE/HNX listings (though UPCoM does not apply that cancellation rule).
- Accumulated losses = 0.23 × paid-in capital. This indicates retained deficit is materially eroding contributed capital, though owner's equity (excluding minorities) remains positive.
- Accruals quality = 100/100. TATA = -0.1209 (total accruals to assets) — the accruals profile (per the score) is strong, indicating limited aggressive accrual-based earnings management signals on that measure.
- Receivables quality = 100/100 even though receivables outside trade cycle are measurable (10.2% of assets); the receivables-quality metric suggests collectability and classification metrics are not flagged by that score.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (neutral-to-solid). The F-Score summarizes recent operational fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency) and a 6 indicates several positive fundamentals remain.
- Director-deal registrations: 1 purchase registration and 0 sale registrations disclosed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30. Registrations are intentions filed with the exchange and not executed trades.
Top shareholders include two institutional owners (Công ty TNHH MTV Hoành Sơn 11.3%; Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam 9.8%) and several individuals (largest individual 7.6%). Ownership is moderately concentrated among a mix of institutions and insiders; one registered insider purchase was filed in the past year (one registration without a volume).
- Compare the FY2025 line-items for 'Loans receivable' and 'Other long-term receivables' and reconcile their sum to the 10.2% of total assets noted in the receivables-outside-trade-cycle measure.
- Inspect the cash-flow statement (operating cash flow and changes in working capital) across FY2023–FY2025 to verify the low cash-conversion result (40/100) and reconcile with the reported net losses at parent level for five consecutive years.
- Review the notes on 'Revenue and receivables' and the related-party disclosures for prepayments to suppliers and loans to related parties to understand classification and recoverability assumptions driving AQI and receivables figures.
- Check the equity statement and the accumulated loss line to confirm the accumulated losses = 0.23 × paid-in capital, and confirm the parent net-loss series and the three-year statutory-loss condition cited in the audited financial statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 4.98
- P/S
- 62.72
- ROE
- −22.9%
- ROA
- −5.5%
- EPS
- −1.414
- BVPS
- 5.465
- Gross Margin
- −123.7%
- Net Margin
- −326.0%
- D/E
- 2.86
- Current Ratio
- 0.51
- Rev Growth
- +7027.9%
- Profit Growth
- −2815.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 357M
- Charter Capital
- 3,570B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
- Company Type
- CT