Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 11.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 13.686
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 5 Jul 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.0421st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 10.4%81st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.2394, which sits at the 84th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and moved up by +1.56 year‑over‑year; this indicates accounting accruals and receivable dynamics that are more aggressive than most local peers but not conclusive on its own. Specific component signals include a high DSRI of 1.6364 (days‑sales/receivables signal), an AQI of 1.1363 (quality of accruals), and a low TATA of 0.1194 (total accruals to assets); at the same time, the company’s Altman Z‑Score is 3.15 (in the ‘safe’ zone) and the Piotroski F‑Score is 6/9 (neutral).
- High DSRI = 1.6364: this ratio measures the change in days‑sales‑outstanding/receivables and a value >1 suggests receivables have risen faster than sales, consistent with collection or revenue recognition pressure.
- Beneish peer percentile = 84th and YoY change +1.56: the M‑Score moved materially higher year‑over‑year and is more aggressive than 84% of Vietnamese peers; note the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam.
- Earnings Quality overall = 21.4/100, with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100: this measures poor conversion of reported profits into operating cash and weak quality/structure of receivables.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 10.4% of total assets (81st percentile): this measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables outside normal trade terms and is high versus peers, raising scrutiny over related‑party financing or long‑dated receivables.
- Three‑year cash conversion (OCF / net profit) = -0.04 (21st percentile): this measures the three‑year cumulative conversion of reported profit into cash from operations and a negative value indicates profits have not been producing operating cash flow.
- TATA = 0.1194 (total accruals to assets): this measures total accruals relative to assets; a relatively low positive value suggests accruals are not extreme in absolute terms.
- GMI = 0.9675 (Gross margin index <1): this measures deterioration in gross margins year‑over‑year; a value <1 indicates gross margin improved rather than deteriorated.
- SGAI = 0.9896 (selling, general & admin index ~1): this measures changes in operating expenses; close to 1 implies no large unexplained step‑up in SG&A.
- Altman Z‑Score = 3.15: this bankruptcy‑distance measure places the company in the ‘safe’ zone, indicating lower immediate financial distress risk by that model.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 6/9: this measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 6 is modestly positive/neutral rather than strongly negative.
Ownership is concentrated with Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam holding 25.0% and Domex Company Ltd 10.0%; several individuals hold mid single‑digit stakes (5.0%, 5.0%, 4.5%). The presence of a large state‑linked textile group as the top holder suggests potential group or related‑party transactions typical in Vietnamese listed groups.
- Compare the FY2025 schedule of trade receivables, loans receivable and prepayments in the notes to the line item that produces the 10.4% of total assets figure and identify related‑party counter‑parties.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to parent net profit in the cash flow statement and the accounting policy/note on cash conversion to confirm drivers of the three‑year OCF/net profit = -0.04.
- Inspect the related‑party transactions note for any increases in loans, advances or long‑dated receivables to entities within the listed group or to the top shareholders.
- Check the revenue recognition and receivable aging notes (including any non‑trade receivables) to validate the DSRI drivers behind DSRI = 1.6364 and the Revenue quality = 0.0/100 assessment.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.49
- P/S
- 0.20
- ROE
- 13.0%
- ROA
- 8.3%
- EPS
- 2.897
- BVPS
- 22.885
- Gross Margin
- 18.6%
- Net Margin
- 5.2%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.69
- Rev Growth
- +7.2%
- Profit Growth
- +16.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.35
- Div Yield
- 13.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.3M
- Charter Capital
- 52.9B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT