Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 14.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 13.892
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The date of the last close could not be confirmed.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.7%55th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 0.9646 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +3.62, indicating its accounting metrics are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have recently moved. Other red/concern signals include a very low Earnings-Quality composite (44.1/100), an Altman Z-Score of 1.42 (in the distress zone), and very poor cash-conversion and margin/revenue quality components (0.0/100 each).
- Beneish M-Score = 0.9646, Vietnam peer percentile = 96th, YoY change = +3.62. The M-Score combines eight manipulation-related ratios and here places the company high versus Vietnamese peers and rising year-over-year (note the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam).
- Earnings-Quality Score = 44.1/100, with Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100. These sub-scores indicate weak cash generation relative to reported earnings and deterioration in margins and revenue quality measures.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.42 (distress zone). This score measures distance to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios and here is in the zone historically associated with financial distress.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 10.0000 (part of the M-Score). A high AQI implies increasing non-current asset writing/ capitalization or other asset-quality shifts that can accompany aggressive accounting.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin index) = 1.2092 (part of the M-Score). An SGAI >1 indicates SG&A growing faster than sales, which can signal cost-pressure or discretionary expense recognition changes.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 0.8962 (part of the M-Score). A DSRI below 1 suggests receivables are not expanding faster than sales, consistent with Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and only 2.7% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.7452 (part of the M-Score). GMI <1 indicates gross margins improved year-over-year, which is a favourable signal within the Beneish components.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0492 (part of the M-Score) and Accruals quality = 80.3/100. These figures show reported accruals are not extremely large relative to assets and accrual quality is relatively strong.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (neutral). The F-Score shows mixed but not uniformly weak traditional fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.7% of total assets (55th percentile vs Vietnamese non-financials). This is moderate in the Vietnamese peer context and aligns with Receivables quality = 100.0/100.
The share register is concentrated: Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam holds 60.7% and another institution holds 15.8%, giving state/industry-group-related institutional control; a listed group member (HDM) holds 5.0% and two individuals hold 3.6% and 2.5%. Such concentration implies group or state influence on governance and financial reporting decisions.
- Inspect the note or schedule supporting 'receivables and other long-term receivables' to reconcile the 2.7% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Compare cash-flow-from-operations and net income in the consolidated cash-flow statement and management discussion to verify the Cash conversion weakness (Cash conversion = 0.0/100).
- Review the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and impairment notes to understand drivers of AQI = 10.0000 and any changes in capitalization or reclassifications.
- Examine SG&A detail and the management commentary to explain SGAI = 1.2092 (SG&A growth relative to sales) and check for one-off items in SG&A or revenue that affect margin and revenue quality (both 0.0/100).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.74
- P/S
- 0.17
- ROE
- 8.8%
- ROA
- 2.3%
- EPS
- 1.649
- BVPS
- 19.474
- Gross Margin
- 10.9%
- Net Margin
- 2.0%
- D/E
- 2.57
- Current Ratio
- 1.17
- Rev Growth
- −16.6%
- Profit Growth
- +44.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 10.42
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 13.3M
- Charter Capital
- 133B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT