Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 33.950
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 35.858
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.5%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.3960th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.3%16th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M‑Score is -1.5084 (80th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +1.32, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and a recent upward trajectory. Key component signals include a high Asset Quality Index (AQI = 3.0110) and a Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI = 1.1332), while total accruals (TATA = -0.0002) are essentially zero; earnings‑quality metrics are mixed (overall 70/100) with very low revenue quality (0/100) and poor receivables quality (36.7/100).
- Beneish M‑Score = -1.5084 (80th percentile vs Vietnamese peers): the level is above most domestic peers and the YoY change +1.32 shows a recent move toward more aggressive accounting metrics (the -1.78 US cutoff is less applicable in Vietnam; use the percentile and trajectory).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 3.0110: this measures the increase in non‑current or unusual assets (capitalized costs, long‑dated receivables, etc.); a value this high indicates a material shift in asset composition that can signal capitalization or reclassification of items.
- DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivable Index) = 1.1332: this measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales; DSRI > 1 suggests receivables are rising relative to revenue, a potential early sign of revenue recognition timing or collection deterioration.
- Receivables quality = 36.7/100 and Revenue quality = 0/100: the scoring shows receivables and revenue recognition measures are weak (revenue quality at the bottom), which is consistent with the DSRI deterioration and implies the cash and earnings origins warrant scrutiny.
- TATA (total accruals) = -0.0002: this measures accrual‑based earnings versus cash flows; a near‑zero value indicates low net accruals in the period, which supports the quality of reported profit from an accruals perspective.
- Accruals quality = 100/100 and Cash conversion (3‑year OCF / net profit) = 1.39 (60th percentile): accruals appear clean (perfect score) and operating cash flow has converted profits into cash at a reasonable multi‑year rate (1.39), with cash conversion scoring 80.2/100.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.8464 and SGAI (SG&A Index) = 0.9301: DEPI <1 suggests depreciation policies or asset bases are not showing signs of accelerated depreciation pressure, and SGAI <1 shows SG&A did not grow faster than sales — both temper some manipulation concerns.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 6/9 and Altman Z‑Score = 2.61 (grey zone): fundamentals are neutral to moderately healthy (Piotroski 6), and the Z‑Score places the company in the grey zone for bankruptcy distance rather than immediate distress.
The largest shareholder is Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam with 61.9% (institutional/state group control), indicating concentrated ownership and likely influence over strategic and reporting decisions; remaining shareholders are small (next largest individual 3.1%). This concentrated, group/state‑linked ownership is typical in Vietnam and can affect related‑party transactions and intra‑group balances.
- Compare the line items that make up ‘Other non‑current assets’ and 'Long‑term receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet with the related‑party disclosures and the notes on capitalized costs to assess the components driving AQI = 3.0110.
- Reconcile the receivables and revenue schedules: check the notes that detail trade receivables, advances to customers/suppliers and intra‑group receivables to verify drivers of DSRI = 1.1332 and the receivables‑quality score (36.7/100).
- Match operating cash flow (cash flow statement, operating activities) to reported net profit across the last three years to verify the 3‑year cash conversion ratio = 1.39 and the accruals implied by TATA = -0.0002.
- Inspect the statutory audit and equity/retained earnings disclosures to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that the statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) were not met in FY2025, as reported.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.39
- P/S
- 0.27
- ROE
- 32.4%
- ROA
- 9.5%
- EPS
- 8.794
- BVPS
- 29.666
- Gross Margin
- 11.7%
- Net Margin
- 6.0%
- D/E
- 1.50
- Current Ratio
- 1.18
- Rev Growth
- +5.9%
- Profit Growth
- +12.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.18
- Div Yield
- 6.1%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 43.2M
- Charter Capital
- 432B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT