VTI
Công ty Cổ phần Sản xuất - Xuất nhập khẩu Dệt may
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.918
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 4 Jan 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 2.9384th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 29.1%94th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 6.12×Statutory test met
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- NegativeStatutory test met
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting signals of aggressive or stressed financial reporting: a Beneish M-Score of 1.4514 (97th percentile vs Vietnamese peers, up +0.59 year-over-year) with high DSRI (1.4437) and SGAI (3.9194) components, an Earnings-Quality composite of 0/100, and an Altman Z-Score of -347.28 (distress zone). At the same time the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral), and the company is majority-controlled by Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam (68.3%).
- Beneish M-Score = 1.4514 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight ratios). This value ranks at the 97th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher indicates more aggressive accounting relative to peers) and rose by +0.59 year-over-year (the trend signal). Note: the -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated and less applicable to Vietnam — use the peer percentile and YoY change as the stronger cues.
- DSRI = 1.4437 (Days' Sales in Receivables Index). A value >1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales, which can indicate revenue recognition or collection issues.
- SGAI = 3.9194 (Sales, General & Administrative expense Index). This large increase (>1) indicates S,G&A grew substantially relative to sales, which can reflect cost recognition timing or expense classification shifts.
- LVGI = 1.9460 (Leverage Index). A value >1 signals leverage increased year-over-year, which pressures earnings quality and solvency.
- AQI = 0.1836 (Asset Quality Index). While <1 often implies asset write-downs or fewer non-current assets, in context with other items its low value should be read with the rest of the profile.
- TATA = 1.0000 (Total Accruals to Total Assets). A non-zero or rising TATA indicates accruals contributed to earnings; here the index equals 1.0000 in the component set (check the base value definition in the model output).
- Earnings Quality Score = 0.0/100 across accruals, cash conversion, receivables and margin quality (each 0.0/100). These scores measure how reliably reported profit converts to cash, the quality of accruals, the collectibility of receivables and stability of margins; zeros indicate very weak signals on each dimension.
- Altman Z-Score = -347.28 (measures distance to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage and liquidity). This extremely negative value places the company in the distress zone (very large negative distance).
- Cash conversion (3-year OCF / net profit) = 2.93 (84th percentile). This ratio measures how much reported profit is supported by operating cash flow over three years; a high value here (especially in percentile terms) flags profit not turning into cash.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 29.1% of total assets (94th percentile). This measures amounts such as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; a high share suggests significant non-trade receivables or related-party balances.
- Accumulated losses = 6.12x paid-in capital and Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is negative. These are balance-sheet distress signs: accumulated losses far exceed contributed capital and shareholders’ equity is negative.
- Statutory loss tests: audited statements show accumulated losses above paid-in capital and negative owner's equity. Note the company trades on UPCoM where the HOSE/HNX cancellation rule (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025) does not apply; this is a fact about the published statements, not a prediction of delisting.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (measures nine fundamental signals: profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency). A score of 6 indicates a mixed-to-neutral set of fundamentals rather than wholesale operational failure.
- GMI = 0.9901 (Gross Margin Index). A value slightly below 1 suggests gross margin did not deteriorate materially year-over-year (GMI <1 normally indicates improving gross margins).
- SGI = 0.9896 (Sales Growth Index). A value just under 1 indicates sales did not accelerate; absence of rapid sales growth reduces some manipulation motives tied to growth acceleration.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam holds 68.3% (institutional/group), Tổng công ty May Hưng Yên - Công ty Cổ phần holds 5.5% (state-related). Together these indicate group/state control and limited free float; three named individuals hold small stakes (0.9%, 0.2%, 0.1%). There are no director-deal registrations provided in the input (director registrations are intentions recorded with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) on receivables and other receivables: quantify the components of the 29.1% 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (prepayments, loans to related parties, long-term receivables) and reconcile movements to the cash-flow statement.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit across the last three years to reproduce the 3-year cash-conversion ratio (OCF / net profit = 2.93) and inspect the cash-flow notes for non-recurring timing items or related-party cash flows.
- Inspect the equity and accumulated-loss disclosures (statement of changes in equity and audit note) to confirm the 6.12x accumulated-losses-to-paid-in-capital calculation and the components producing negative owner's equity (exclude minority interest per the reported figure).
- Review the related-party transactions, guarantees and group balances in the notes to the financial statements and the large-shareholder disclosures for Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam to identify intra-group loans, transfers, prepayments or management-fee arrangements that may explain high non-trade receivables and S,G&A movements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- —
- P/S
- 4.26
- ROE
- −2.9%
- ROA
- 243.7%
- EPS
- 1.479
- BVPS
- −50.700
- Gross Margin
- 80.1%
- Net Margin
- 131.3%
- D/E
- —
- Current Ratio
- 0.00
- EV/EBITDA
- 25.86
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 4.3M
- Charter Capital
- 42.8B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT