Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 18.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 21.019
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 26 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −1.3212th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 12.1%84th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 7.0167 (100th percentile versus Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +10.92), indicating unusually aggressive accounting metrics relative to peers by that model's components rather than a US-calibrated cutoff. Earnings-quality diagnostics are very weak (overall 3.6/100) driven by accruals, cash conversion and receivables measures at 0/100, while solvency distance per the Altman Z-Score is 6.28 (safe zone) even as operating fundamentals per the Piotroski F-Score are weak (3/9).
- Very high Beneish M-Score: 7.0167 and at the 100th percentile among Vietnamese peers; the M-Score measures a composite of eight accounting ratios intended to detect earnings manipulation signals and the company has moved markedly year-over-year (+10.92).
- Extremely elevated DSRI: 10.0000. DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) measures changes in receivables relative to sales and such a high value signals large increases in receivables or timing differences versus revenue recognition.
- Very poor accruals and cash metrics: Earnings Quality overall 3.6/100 with Accruals quality 0/100 and Cash conversion 0/100; the three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) is -1.32 (12th percentile), indicating reported profit is not being converted into operating cash flow.
- Large off-cycle receivables: 'Receivables outside the trade cycle' are 12.1% of total assets (84th percentile). This captures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and can indicate material related-party or non-trade claims on assets.
- High LVGI and SGAI: LVGI 2.3240 (large relative change in leverage/long-term items) and SGAI 1.6120 (61.2% rise in SG&A relative to sales) — these Beneish components point to substantial non-operating shifts and expense recognition changes.
- Very low revenue- and receivables-quality component scores: Revenue quality 0/100 and Receivables quality 0/100, reinforcing concerns about the sustainability and recognition of reported sales.
- Altman Z-Score 6.28 (safe zone): this measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and income variables and places the company well away from distress thresholds.
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9: while low (weak fundamentals), it is an explicit, limited set of profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency checks rather than a direct fraud signal.
- GMI <1 (GMI 0.5938): the Gross Margin Index below 1 suggests gross margins improved year-over-year, which can be a legitimate operating improvement rather than margin erosion.
Majority control by Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam at 51.0% indicates concentrated institutional ownership and potential group/state influence; the next largest individual holders are small (2.9%, 1.2%, 0.8%, 0.8%). There are no director-deal registrations listed in the provided data (registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the year-end balances of 'Receivables from related parties' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 notes to the 12.1% of total assets figure to identify counterparties and terms.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit in the FY2023–FY2025 consolidated cash flow statements and the management discussion to explain the three-year cash conversion ratio of -1.32.
- Inspect the revenue recognition note and the trade receivables schedule for large movements that generate DSRI = 10.0000, including ageing and write-off policies.
- Review the disclosures for SG&A composition and non-recurring items to understand the SGAI = 1.6120 and any depreciation/amortisation or restructuring effects captured by DEPI = 1.0000 and LVGI = 2.3240.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.95
- P/S
- 0.08
- ROE
- 10.4%
- ROA
- 5.6%
- EPS
- 1.955
- BVPS
- 19.019
- Gross Margin
- 9.0%
- Net Margin
- 0.8%
- D/E
- 0.88
- Current Ratio
- 1.17
- Rev Growth
- −29.6%
- Profit Growth
- +37.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 14.49
- Div Yield
- 4.6%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 4.0M
- Charter Capital
- 40.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Thực phẩm
- Company Type
- CT