AFX
Công ty Cổ phần Xuất Nhập khẩu Nông sản Thực phẩm An Giang
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.870
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 11.525
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −1.6811th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 17.0%88th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
AFX shows several accounting signals that sit toward the aggressive side versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -1.23 (84th percentile vs. Vietnam peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.71, while earnings-quality sub-scores are weak (overall 23.0/100) and cash conversion is especially poor (-1.68 three-year ratio, 11th percentile). At the same time, the Altman Z-Score of 2.79 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance and the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 is neutral, and the published statements do not trigger any statutory loss tests under the cited Decree.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.23 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using an eight-variable model); this score is at the 84th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher percentile = more aggressive accounting relative to VN peers) and the M-Score rose by +1.71 year-over-year (a sizable upward move in accounting aggressiveness).
- DSRI = 1.2041 (days-sales-in-receivables index; >1 can indicate revenue recognition pressure or slower collections).
- GMI = 1.5383 (gross-margin index; >1 indicates worsening gross margins year-over-year, which in Beneish is associated with higher manipulation risk).
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.1597 (measures accrual-based earnings; higher positive values suggest earnings are supported by accruals rather than cash).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 17.0% of total assets (88th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; this line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is high in cross-section).
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = -1.68 (11th percentile; indicates profits are not converting into operating cash over the three-year window).
- Earnings-quality composite = 23.0/100 with low sub-scores in revenue quality (13.4/100) and receivables quality (19.2/100), consistent with the high receivables-outside-trade-cycle and DSRI signals.
- Altman Z-Score = 2.79 (the model’s grey zone; this is not an immediate bankruptcy signal but shows the company is not in the safest quintile by the Altman measure).
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (a neutral score on fundamentals; some healthy items offset weaknesses).
- SGAI = 0.6965 (selling, general & administrative expenses index <1 in Beneish indicates SGA did not increase relative to sales, which reduces one pressure point for aggressive accounting).
- AQI = 0.0280 (asset quality index in the Beneish model close to zero indicates limited change in the proportion of intangible/other non-current assets relative to total assets, rather than a large shift that could mask problems).
- DEPI = 1.0263 and LVGI = 0.8770 (depreciation index just above 1 and leverage index below 1 do not point to extreme changes in depreciation policies or leverage in the Beneish components).
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; parent net loss count = 0 consecutive years up to FY2025 (the published statements do not meet the statutory loss cancellation tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended).
Ownership is concentrated: an individual (Đặng Quang Thái) holds 24.4%, and two state-affiliated/institutional entities (Công ty TNHH MTV Xổ Số Kiến Thiết An Giang 8.6%; Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam 4.8%) together with other institutions hold material stakes. Director-deal registrations show 1 purchase registration (1,000,000 shares) and no sales in the past 12 months, with net registered volume = +2.86% of shares outstanding (registrations are declared intentions, not executed trades).
- Compare the 2025 note(s) for 'receivables and prepayments' with total assets to confirm the 17.0% of assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle and list the counterparties and maturities.
- Reconcile the operating cash flow to reported net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and the management discussion for the three-year period to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio of -1.68 and explanations for cash/non-cash differences.
- Inspect the related-party schedules for loans, advances and prepayments (note and schedule) to see whether the high receivables-outside-trade-cycle balance includes related-party items or long-term advances.
- Review the auditor’s report and accounting-policy notes on revenue recognition and allowances (bad debt, provision policies) to assess the drivers behind DSRI = 1.2041 and revenue-quality = 13.4/100.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.66
- P/S
- 0.12
- ROE
- 9.5%
- ROA
- 2.7%
- EPS
- 1.352
- BVPS
- 14.895
- Gross Margin
- 2.2%
- Net Margin
- 1.7%
- D/E
- 1.42
- Current Ratio
- 1.44
- Rev Growth
- +36.5%
- Profit Growth
- +68.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 17.56
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 35.0M
- Charter Capital
- 350B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bán lẻ
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Phân phối thực phẩm & dược phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Phân phối thực phẩm
- Company Type
- CT