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AFX

Công ty Cổ phần Xuất Nhập khẩu Nông sản Thực phẩm An Giang

VietnamConsumerBán lẻPhân phối thực phẩm & dược phẩmHOSECT
9.870
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
9.870
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
11.525

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bán lẻ→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Bán lẻ” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
42.22%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.03%
x
D/(D+E)
57.78%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend6.88%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→66.68B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→9.870
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
11.525
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate6.88%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow66.7 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth3.9%5.4%6.9%8.4%9.9%
8.0%12.11912.11912.31812.51312.513
9.0%11.52511.52511.52512.11912.119
10.0%11.06411.31911.52511.52511.525
11.0%11.04111.04111.06411.06411.525
12.0%11.04111.04111.04111.04111.064
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,5041,6799801,003455287328331225300497705657
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·16737510159133674143416546
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·24094025429700000.070370
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·8425118017002806249572529104128255
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·26715717610211532626231555
Net Inventories
·243189146157106141275268124255358366349
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·243189146157107142276269124257360369369
Other current assets
·1223320.90.8111186
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000010.6
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·6631517591187148145164179223249236248
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0240500.400000.060.060.0600
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0240500.400000.060.060.0600
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·6064717785908695104142152166175
Tangible fixed assets
·32364248474741495889104120129
Leased assets
·2000000000000
Intagible fixed assets
·27282929384344464653472727
Investment in properties
·0000000234567
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·274876926262626262355
Investments in associate companies
·00006219192626262355
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·2777777000000
Other non-current assets
·2456101618263036535961
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·2456101618263036535961
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,5701,9941,1551,094642435473496404523746941904
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1,0491,5187056692445811513232175388584543
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1,0481,5187056692445711413132174388584538
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·738614616564224298210512116339501429
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·222544332334644
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·10.40.40.40.010.50.30.40.50.70.50.65
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0.400000000000.064
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·521476450425399377359364371348358357361
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·521476450425399377359364371348358357361
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·350350350350350350350350350350350350350
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·14131210988855522
Other Reserves
·0000000022222
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·157113886539190.3614−90.70.034
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,5701,9941,1551,094642435473496404523746941904
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·350350350350350350350350350350350350350

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
23
Poor
Accrual Quality
44
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
19
Margin Stability
41
Revenue Quality
13

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.23 · 84th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.71
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.204
GMI
1.538
AQI
0.028
SGI
1.368
DEPI
1.026
SGAI
0.696
TATA
0.160
LVGI
0.877

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−1.6811th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
17.0%88th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

AFX shows several accounting signals that sit toward the aggressive side versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -1.23 (84th percentile vs. Vietnam peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.71, while earnings-quality sub-scores are weak (overall 23.0/100) and cash conversion is especially poor (-1.68 three-year ratio, 11th percentile). At the same time, the Altman Z-Score of 2.79 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance and the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 is neutral, and the published statements do not trigger any statutory loss tests under the cited Decree.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.23 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using an eight-variable model); this score is at the 84th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher percentile = more aggressive accounting relative to VN peers) and the M-Score rose by +1.71 year-over-year (a sizable upward move in accounting aggressiveness).
  • DSRI = 1.2041 (days-sales-in-receivables index; >1 can indicate revenue recognition pressure or slower collections).
  • GMI = 1.5383 (gross-margin index; >1 indicates worsening gross margins year-over-year, which in Beneish is associated with higher manipulation risk).
  • TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.1597 (measures accrual-based earnings; higher positive values suggest earnings are supported by accruals rather than cash).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 17.0% of total assets (88th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; this line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is high in cross-section).
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = -1.68 (11th percentile; indicates profits are not converting into operating cash over the three-year window).
  • Earnings-quality composite = 23.0/100 with low sub-scores in revenue quality (13.4/100) and receivables quality (19.2/100), consistent with the high receivables-outside-trade-cycle and DSRI signals.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 2.79 (the model’s grey zone; this is not an immediate bankruptcy signal but shows the company is not in the safest quintile by the Altman measure).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (a neutral score on fundamentals; some healthy items offset weaknesses).
  • SGAI = 0.6965 (selling, general & administrative expenses index <1 in Beneish indicates SGA did not increase relative to sales, which reduces one pressure point for aggressive accounting).
  • AQI = 0.0280 (asset quality index in the Beneish model close to zero indicates limited change in the proportion of intangible/other non-current assets relative to total assets, rather than a large shift that could mask problems).
  • DEPI = 1.0263 and LVGI = 0.8770 (depreciation index just above 1 and leverage index below 1 do not point to extreme changes in depreciation policies or leverage in the Beneish components).
  • No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; parent net loss count = 0 consecutive years up to FY2025 (the published statements do not meet the statutory loss cancellation tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended).
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: an individual (Đặng Quang Thái) holds 24.4%, and two state-affiliated/institutional entities (Công ty TNHH MTV Xổ Số Kiến Thiết An Giang 8.6%; Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam 4.8%) together with other institutions hold material stakes. Director-deal registrations show 1 purchase registration (1,000,000 shares) and no sales in the past 12 months, with net registered volume = +2.86% of shares outstanding (registrations are declared intentions, not executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 note(s) for 'receivables and prepayments' with total assets to confirm the 17.0% of assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle and list the counterparties and maturities.
  • Reconcile the operating cash flow to reported net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and the management discussion for the three-year period to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio of -1.68 and explanations for cash/non-cash differences.
  • Inspect the related-party schedules for loans, advances and prepayments (note and schedule) to see whether the high receivables-outside-trade-cycle balance includes related-party items or long-term advances.
  • Review the auditor’s report and accounting-policy notes on revenue recognition and allowances (bad debt, provision policies) to assess the drivers behind DSRI = 1.2041 and revenue-quality = 13.4/100.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.79
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.05
Negative
Composite
81
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.06×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover1.79×Leverage3.01=ROE9.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.5%
Volatility
17.2%
Max Drawdown
−33.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.32P/E
P/B
0.66
P/S
0.12
ROE
9.5%
ROA
2.7%
EPS
1.352
BVPS
14.895
Gross Margin
2.2%
Net Margin
1.7%
D/E
1.42
Current Ratio
1.44
Rev Growth
+36.5%
Profit Growth
+68.9%
EV/EBITDA
17.56
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
35.0M
Charter Capital
350B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3)
Phân phối thực phẩm & dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Phân phối thực phẩm
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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