VMS

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Hàng Hải

VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiHNXCT

29.500

VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+3.0%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 29.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 30.372

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 30 Oct 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details

Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→12.04B

Fair EV/EBITDA→7.5x

Years of data→7

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→29.500

Calibrated value vs last close→+3.0%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

30.372

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Mid-cycle EBITDA12.0 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7

VMS among Construction

Every stock in the sector, VMS marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is VMS. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	148	133	121	122	130	144	129	116	114	106	101	140	141
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	72	27	20	19	18	25	32	51	58	43	39	60	63
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	22	60	54	58	56	59	35	12	4	9	12	12	2
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	51	40	41	41	53	56	59	51	46	49	47	62	70
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	4	4	5	0.8	3	2	2	2	6	3	9	33	33
Net Inventories	·	2	3	2	0.8	2	2	3	1	3	4	2	5	5
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	2	3	2	0.8	2	2	3	1	3	4	2	5	5
Other current assets	·	2	2	3	2	2	1	1.0	0.7	2	0.9	2	1	0.9
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.6
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	108	107	114	117	121	124	128	132	135	136	152	110	105
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	25	26	25	25	25	25	25	25	33	34	35	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.09	1	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.6	2	2	3	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	12	13	17	20	25	29	32	37	36	28	34	71	67
Tangible fixed assets	·	10	11	14	17	22	26	29	33	36	28	34	30	26
Intagible fixed assets	·	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	0
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	12	12	17	16	16	16	17	17	18	18	35	36	37
Investments in associate companies	·	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−22	−22	−22	−23	−23	−23	−22	−22	−21	−21	−2	−1	−1
Other non-current assets	·	8	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	2	2
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	5	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	2	2
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	256	239	234	238	250	268	257	248	248	242	253	249	246
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	101	88	84	90	102	111	109	100	102	88	87	104	107
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	37	24	22	34	47	57	56	47	50	36	34	51	56
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.6
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	105,060	0	0	0.01	0.01	0.2	0.01	753,362	0.3	0.05	0.8	22	22
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	65	64	62	56	55	54	53	53	52	52	53	53	52
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)	·	155	152	151	148	149	157	148	148	146	154	166	145	139
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	155	152	151	148	149	157	148	148	146	154	166	145	139
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	60
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	31	26	22	19	17	17	17	17	17	17	12	3	13
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	14	15	19	19	22	31	21	21	19	27	43	26	40
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	256	239	234	238	250	268	257	248	248	242	253	249	246
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	90	60

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.24 · 54th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +0.00

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.890

GMI

1.000

AQI

0.958

SGI

1.436

DEPI

1.565

SGAI

0.959

TATA

0.009

LVGI

1.442

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 0.5031st pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 1.6%44th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.32

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.31

Positive

Composite

30 to 49

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✓Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.22×Op. Margin0.05×Turnover1.20×Leverage1.66=ROE8.8%

Price Risk

Momentum

+146.1%

Volatility

43.2%

Max Drawdown

−51.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

19.45P/E

P/B: 1.72
P/S: 0.86
ROE: 8.9%
ROA: 5.5%
EPS: 1.517
BVPS: 17.173
Gross Margin: 12.5%
Net Margin: 4.4%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 4.03
Rev Growth: +43.4%
Profit Growth: −11.2%
EV/EBITDA: 12.75
Div Yield: 2.7%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 9.0M
Charter Capital: 90.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3): Vận tải
Sub-industry: Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for VMS. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Vận Tải Container Vimc

Inst

51.0%

4.6M

2026-03-31

Công ty TNHH Đầu tư TM

Inst

12.8%

1.1M

2026-08-11

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Sao Á D.C

Inst

5.9%

534,800

2026-08-07

Đào Hồng Chương

Indiv

5.5%

499,300

2026-06-30

Hoàng Thuỳ Dương

Indiv

4.9%

442,500

2026-03-31

Bùi Thị Phương Thảo

Indiv

4.5%

400,900

2026-03-31

Công ty Cổ Phần Bất Động Sản Macland

Inst

3.7%

329,300

2026-03-31

Nguyễn Cao Thắng

Indiv

0.4%

35,000

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Chí Kiên

Indiv

0.2%

17,500

2026-06-30

Board & Management

Đào Hồng Chương5.5%

Member of Management Board

Nguyễn Chí Kiên0.2%

Member of Management Board

Phạm Quốc Hùng

Member of Supervisors Board

Top connections

MAC2 links VSC2 links HAH12.8%VIP12.8%VSM5.9%

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: 1 by 1 trader; 1 without a stated volume
Purchase registrations: 2 by 2 traders; 2 without a stated volume

Công ty TNHH Đầu tư TM
Sale · Institution
—
2026-08-11
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Sao Á D.C
Purchase · Institution
—
2026-08-07
Công ty TNHH Đầu tư TM
Purchase · Institution
—
2025-11-27

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

VMS among Construction

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

VMS among Construction