Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 13.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 12.522
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.9314th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.2%68th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.9821, which is above the US-based -1.78 cutoff but sits at the 88th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and rose by +0.08 year-over-year; this suggests accounting metrics are more aggressive than most Vietnamese listed peers and have edged slightly toward more aggressive territory. Earnings-quality diagnostics are mixed: overall Earnings Quality 33.0/100 with very weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue quality (11.1/100) but strong receivables quality (100.0/100). Solvency and fundamentals indicators are also mixed: Altman Z-Score is 2.53 (the grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, indicating weak reported fundamentals.
- Beneish M-Score = -0.9821 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight accounting ratios); Vietnam peer percentile = 88th (this company shows more aggressive accounting metrics than 88% of Vietnamese non-financial peers).
- Year-over-year change in M-Score = +0.08 (the M-Score trended slightly more aggressive compared with the prior year).
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = -0.93 (14th percentile among Vietnamese peers; measures whether reported profit is converting into operating cash — a negative ratio and low percentile indicate three-year profit has not translated into operating cash).
- Earnings Quality total = 33.0/100 and Cash conversion component = 0.0/100 (measures quality of reported earnings; near-zero score on cash conversion is a concern for earnings reliability).
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.2052 (part of Beneish inputs; measures accrual intensity — higher values can indicate earnings management via accruals).
- SGI (sales growth index) = 2.0373 (measures change in sales; a high SGI signals rapid growth which can increase pressure to manage earnings).
- DEPI (depreciation index) = 1.6935 (measures changes in depreciation policy or estimates; values >1 can indicate slower depreciation or useful-life extensions that inflate earnings).
- LVGI (leverage index) = 1.4615 (measures change in leverage; rising leverage can pressure management and affect accounting choices).
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Revenue quality = 11.1/100 and Margin quality = 22.3/100 (these low scores indicate reported revenue and margins may be of low quality or volatile).
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures nine signals of operational profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency; a 3 indicates weak fundamentals).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures the quality and behavior of receivables; a perfect score indicates receivables appear conservative or well-behaved relative to peers).
- DSRI (days' sales index) = 0.8056 (part of the Beneish model; a value <1 implies days' sales in receivables decreased year-over-year, which is generally not a manipulation signal).
- GMI (gross margin index) = 0.8051 (part of Beneish; a value <1 indicates gross margins improved year-over-year rather than deteriorated).
- AQI (asset quality index) = 0.8361 (part of Beneish; a value <1 indicates asset composition did not shift toward potentially manipulative assetization compared with the prior period).
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive and parent reported no net loss in the 0 of the most recent years (these are balance-sheet and statutory outcomes showing solvency on published statements).
- Director-deal registrations: 0 sale registrations and 12 purchase registrations (11 registrants) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30; registrations total 15,118,047 shares with net registered volume = +31.27% of shares outstanding (these are registered intentions to trade disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).
Shareholding is concentrated: two institutional shareholders together hold 55.7% (Công ty TNHH Đầu tư TM 32.4%, Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Sao Á D.C 23.3%). Four individuals hold meaningful stakes (6.6%, 6.0%, 5.3% etc.). The concentrated institutional ownership and the presence of significant individual holders indicate potential for controlling influence or group dynamics; director-deal registrations (primarily purchase registrations) total a large registered volume (+31.27% of shares outstanding) but are registered intentions, not executed trades.
- Compare operating cash flow to net profit in the consolidated cash-flow statement and the management discussion for the three-year period to verify the components producing Cash conversion = -0.93.
- Inspect the notes to the financial statements for the composition of 'receivables' and 'other long-term receivables' to corroborate Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.2% of total assets and to identify related-party loans, prepayments or advances.
- Review the fixed-asset and depreciation notes to reconcile DEPI = 1.6935 (check changes in useful lives, depreciation methods, revaluations or one-off disposals).
- Examine financing and borrowings notes and the statement of changes in liabilities to validate LVGI = 1.4615 and any new debt or covenant disclosures driving leverage changes.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.15
- P/S
- 2.27
- ROE
- 14.5%
- ROA
- 7.2%
- EPS
- 1.211
- BVPS
- 11.390
- Gross Margin
- 10.5%
- Net Margin
- 26.0%
- D/E
- 0.16
- Current Ratio
- 4.20
- Rev Growth
- +103.7%
- Profit Growth
- +9.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 29.80
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 48.4M
- Charter Capital
- 484B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
- Company Type
- CT