Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 8.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.071
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 24 Aug 2017
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.0%5th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 1
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows several accounting signals associated with aggressive revenue/receivable patterns: a Beneish M-Score of -0.2502 (92nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.44, driven mainly by DSRI = 5.1406 and SGAI = 5.5382. At the same time accruals quality is high (100/100) but cash conversion (16.5/100), receivables quality (0/100) and margin quality (0/100) are weak; the Altman Z-Score is 2.05 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -0.2502 (92nd Vietnam percentile): the M-Score is above most Vietnamese peers (92nd percentile), signalling relatively more aggressive accounting versus peers; year-over-year change +2.44 indicates a material shift in the M-Score trajectory compared with the prior year.
- DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 5.1406: DSRI far above 1 signals receivables (or reported sales relative to receivables) changed markedly year-on-year, often associated with revenue recognition or collectability issues.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative expenses Index) = 5.5382: SGAI well above 1 indicates SGA expenses grew much faster than sales, which can reflect expense capitalization, reclassification, or timing differences used to influence margins.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0159 combined with Cash conversion 16.5/100 and Receivables quality 0/100: operating cash conversion is weak while accrual-based measures score well, a pattern that can indicate earnings are not being converted into cash.
- Margin quality 0/100: reported margins are not supported by the quality metric used here, suggesting reported profits may be fragile or supported by non-recurring items.
- Altman Z-Score 2.05 (grey zone): distance to bankruptcy is moderate and not clearly safe, which is a financial-health concern to note alongside accounting signals.
- Accruals quality 100.0/100: accrual measures (TATA and related inputs) indicate low abnormal accruals by the metric used, which is a strength for earnings reliability on an accrual basis.
- AQI = 1.0000 and DEPI = 1.0000: Asset quality index and depreciation index equal to 1 imply no detectable change in asset mix or depreciation policy according to these inputs.
- LVGI = 1.0028 and GMI = 0.9982: leverage-growth and gross-margin indices close to 1 show no large structural change in leverage or gross margin on the specific Beneish sub-indices.
- Vietnamese checks: Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.0% of total assets (5th percentile) and no accumulated losses — the company reports minimal non-trade receivables and positive retained earnings, which are favorable facts in the filings.
Control is highly concentrated: CMS holds 68.4% (control) and the state-related TKV holds 30.0%, together representing essentially full control by two large shareholders. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data; majority control increases the influence of the controlling shareholder(s) on reporting decisions.
- Compare the FY2025 trade receivables line and the notes on 'loans receivable / other long-term receivables' to verify the 0.0% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Inspect the revenue and receivables ageing notes for FY2025 to reconcile the DSRI = 5.1406 signal with disclosures on revenue recognition policies and collectability provisions.
- Review the SGA breakdown and any notes on one-off expenses, reclassifications or capitalization in FY2025 to understand drivers of SGAI = 5.5382.
- Check the cash flow statement and the operating cash conversion reconciliation for FY2025 to reconcile Cash conversion 16.5/100 with the high accruals quality (100/100) and TATA = -0.0159.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.71
- P/S
- 176.86
- ROE
- −1.8%
- ROA
- −1.3%
- EPS
- −205
- BVPS
- 11.278
- Gross Margin
- 100.0%
- Net Margin
- −453.9%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 3.62
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.0M
- Charter Capital
- 50.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT