Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.109
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −8.274th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 3.5%59th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.569 (78th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of -2.00, indicating its accounting profile has moved toward more aggressive patterns versus peers; the high AQI (1.5699) and SGI (1.6865) drive that signal while TATA is low (0.0910). Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall score of 35.9/100 with very weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and margin/revenue quality (0.0/100) but strong receivables quality (100.0/100). Other context: Altman Z-Score is 1.89 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score: -1.569 and Vietnam peer percentile 78th — this places the company above most Vietnamese peers on the aggression scale (note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not VN-calibrated).
- Year-over-year M-Score change: -2.00 — the M-Score moved substantially from the prior year, which is a secondary cue to changing accounting patterns.
- AQI (asset quality index) = 1.5699 — a relatively high AQI component, which measures increases in non-current/other assets (e.g., write-ups, capitalised costs, long-term receivables).
- SGI (sales growth index) = 1.6865 — elevated sales growth, which can stress quality if not matched by cash generation.
- Cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -8.27 (4th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — reported profits are not converting to operating cash and rank poorly versus peers.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Cash conversion 0.0/100, Margin quality 0.0/100, Revenue quality 0.0/100 — these indicate weak observable cash and margin support for reported earnings and revenue recognition.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.89 (grey zone) — distance-to-distress is moderate and not in the safe zone.
- Director-deal registrations net +0.39% of shares outstanding (1 sale registration: 3,000,000 shares; 2 purchase registrations: 3,100,000 shares) — registrations are non-binding intentions but show insiders/related parties registering trades in 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 3.5% of total assets (59th percentile) — limited exposure to long-term/atypical receivables relative to peers.
- Receivables quality sub-score = 100.0/100 — receivables appearance and aging appear strong by the applied measures.
- Accruals quality = 63.6/100 — moderate accruals quality suggests some alignment between reported earnings and accrual patterns.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 — fundamentals are neutral-to-favourable on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency checks.
- No accumulated losses and zero consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025 — retained earnings are positive and the parent company is not reporting consecutive statutory losses.
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e) as amended) — none met in the audited annual statements for FY2025.
The listed group controls VCE with a 68.4% holding (control). Top individual shareholders are concentrated: Phạm Minh Phúc 24.3%, Phạm Văn Tùng 5.0%, Phạm Văn Xuyên 4.9%; overall control and a dominant group holding indicate concentrated ownership and potential for related-party activity under group control.
- Compare FY2025 cash flow from operations (statement of cash flows) with parent net profit to corroborate the three-year cash conversion ratio of -8.27 and identify major non-cash reconciling items.
- Inspect the notes for receivables and other long-term receivables / prepayments to verify the 3.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and check counterparties and related-party flags.
- Examine the ‘related-party transactions’ note for large loans, prepayments, transfers or guarantees with the listed group or with the top shareholders (68.4% group control and the named individuals).
- Read the auditor’s report and the accounting policies note for revenue recognition, capitalisation policies and asset reclassifications that could explain the high AQI (1.5699) and zeroes in revenue/margin quality.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.44
- P/S
- 0.37
- ROE
- 11.4%
- ROA
- 5.2%
- EPS
- 1.238
- BVPS
- 11.471
- Gross Margin
- 11.3%
- Net Margin
- 8.2%
- D/E
- 0.69
- Current Ratio
- 3.31
- Rev Growth
- +68.6%
- Profit Growth
- +537.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 11.66
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 25.5M
- Charter Capital
- 255B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT