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Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Sao Mai Việt

VietnamTechnologyCông nghệ Thông tinPhần mềm & Dịch vụ Máy tínhHNXCT
6.800
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
−8.5%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
6.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
6.222

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
  • Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Công nghệ Thông tin→Technology
Classified as technology because ICB sector “Công nghệ Thông tin” maps to the technology group.
ModelDCF + P/E Blend
Intrinsic = 60% x DCF Value + 40% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF lets growth fade more slowly than in any other sector, recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.

Technical details
Why this model

Tech firms combine high growth potential with current profitability that peers can benchmark. Pure DCF could overvalue if growth assumptions are too aggressive. The P/E blend acts as a market-calibrated anchor, while the PEG-based cap prevents paying excessive multiples.

How it works

DCF: 10-year FCF projection with growth capped at 20%, fading more slowly than in any other sector toward the sector's long-run growth rate. P/E: 5-year median P/E capped at dynamic ceiling (growth x 1.5, max 30). Blend: 60% DCF + 40% P/E.

Best for

Technology and IT companies where high growth potential must be balanced against the risk of speculative overvaluation.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.80%
Ke
12.80%
x
E/(D+E)
37.81%
+
Kd(1-t)
2.68%
x
D/(D+E)
62.19%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend5.00%
Growth decays 5%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Max fair P/E→8x
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→6.800
Calibrated value vs last close→−8.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
6.222
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate5.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flowone off strip ratio: 0.18

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%8.0%
8.0%6.2226.2226.2226.2226.222
9.0%6.2226.2226.2226.2226.222
10.0%6.2226.2226.2226.2226.222
11.0%N/AN/A6.2216.2216.222
12.0%N/AN/AN/AN/A6.221
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·90355649747131034444645507780···
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·30.6330.960.32211132···
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·000000000.30.30.30.40.5···
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·2528581960.4231394241352528···
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·247777773012117790.80.7···
Net Inventories
·6324624033650.010.030.60.81.0344446···
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·6324624033650.010.030.811.0344446···
Other current assets
·1699822220.10054···
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000030.9···
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·000325817113512812712211610099···
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·000333400008381···
Tangible fixed assets
·0003334000000···
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·00000034418181818···
Investments in associate companies
·00000000018181818···
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·0000004440000···
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·000000−0.60−0.10000···
Other non-current assets
·000000.020.05000000···
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·000000.020.05000000···
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·903556497474262180169171173167165177179···
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·46939233331198211012141083437···
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·13439211111098211012141083437···
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·527549499014339201113···
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·695959585555110.90.80.8···
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·335022120100.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1···
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·680221201000000000···
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·434164164163163159159159159158157143143···
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·434164164163163159159159159158157143143···
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·426156156156156156156156156156145145145···
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0.090.090.090.090.090.090.090.090.090.090.0900···
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·66665555549−4−5···
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·903556497474262180169171173167165177179···
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000000000.100···
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·426156156156156156156156156156145145145···

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
46
Weak
Accrual Quality
98
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
12

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 0.85 · 95th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.89
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.703
GMI
1.752
AQI
1.000
SGI
4.217
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.487
TATA
0.005
LVGI
0.317

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−53.621st pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
27.4%94th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
1
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The firm's Beneish M-Score is 0.8494 (95th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.89, indicating its accounting profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese listed peers and that the accounting metrics have recently moved. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: accruals quality is high (97.9/100) and receivables quality is high (100.0/100), but cash conversion is very weak (0.0/100) and margin and revenue quality are poor (0.0/100 and 11.5/100). The Altman Z-Score is 1.52 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9 (weak fundamentals).

Red Flags
  • High Beneish M-Score: 0.8494 and ranked at the 95th percentile vs Vietnamese peers — the company scores as more aggressive than most peers; the M-Score rose by +2.89 year-over-year (the YoY shift is a separate cue because consecutive-year M-Scores correlate weakly). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly applicable to Vietnam, so peer percentile and trajectory are emphasized.
  • Extremely poor cash conversion: three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -53.62 (1st percentile among Vietnamese non-financial companies), showing profits are not converting to operating cash.
  • Distress-zone Altman Z-Score: 1.52, indicating limited distance from bankruptcy benchmarks used in the Altman model.
  • Weak operating and earnings fundamentals: Piotroski F-Score = 2/9 and overall Earnings Quality = 46.2/100; specifically margin quality = 0.0/100 and revenue quality = 11.5/100.
  • Receivables/outside-trade-cycle exposure: 27.4% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle (94th percentile), which in the Vietnamese context often includes prepayments to suppliers, loans to related parties or long-term receivables.
  • Director-deal activity: 14 sale registrations (9 registrants; 15,555,281 shares; 7 registrations without a volume) and 13 purchase registrations (5 registrants; 16,100,000 shares; 11 without a volume) were disclosed in the 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 window — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not confirmed executed trades.
Positive Signals
  • High accruals quality: 97.9/100, which suggests reported earnings are not driven by large abnormal accruals under the accrual-quality metric.
  • Receivables quality score: 100.0/100, indicating on-balance-sheet receivables pass whatever internal criteria underpin the score, despite the high level of receivables outside the trade cycle (this points to potential complexity rather than automatic impairment).
  • Low discretionary TATA: Total Accruals (TATA) = 0.0051, a small number consistent with the high accruals-quality score.
  • Some expense patterns: SGAI = 0.4867 (SG&A index below 1) and DSRI = 0.7035 (days-sales-in-receivables index below 1), which for those specific indices indicate reduced SG&A relative to prior year and fewer days sales in receivables on the conventional Beneish terms.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: three parties together hold ~62.9% (Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Phát Triển Tổng Hợp Nhân Nghĩa 21.8%, Nguyễn Thị Thanh Tâm 21.5%, Nguyễn Thị Kim Tuyến 19.6%), with an additional institutional holder (Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Thành Công) at 14.3% and another individual at 9.2%. Several insiders and large holders registered buy and sell intentions during the latest 12 months (see director-deal registrations), which are exchange-registered intentions rather than executed transactions.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 schedule/note for 'receivables and prepayments' to see the composition of the 27.4% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle (identify amounts classified as loans to related parties, prepayments to suppliers, and long-term receivables).
  • Reconcile the consolidated and parent operating cash flow statements and the note(s) to cash flows to confirm the drivers of the three-year cash conversion ratio of -53.62 (identify non-cash items, working-capital movements and related-party cash flows).
  • Examine the revenue note and any segment or contract disclosures to reconcile the revenue quality score (11.5/100): check the recognition basis, major one-off revenue items, and any related-party revenue schedules.
  • Inspect the auditor's report and the statutory notes on accumulated losses and equity to verify the statements cited: confirm undistributed earnings are positive, parent net loss occurred in 1 consecutive year up to FY2025, and that none of the statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) are met.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.52
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.07
Negative
Composite
10
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✗Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden−0.21×Interest Burden0.38×Op. Margin0.03×Turnover0.00×Leverage2.08=ROE−0.0%
Price Risk
Momentum
+7.8%
Volatility
74.5%
Max Drawdown
−47.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
—P/E
P/B
0.64
P/S
61.56
ROE
0.0%
ROA
0.0%
EPS
0
BVPS
10.173
Gross Margin
47.8%
Net Margin
−0.2%
D/E
0.17
Current Ratio
6.72
Rev Growth
+321.7%
Profit Growth
+9688.0%
EV/EBITDA
594.72
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
42.6M
Charter Capital
426B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Công nghệ Thông tin
Industry (ICB L3)
Phần mềm & Dịch vụ Máy tính
Sub-industry
Dịch vụ Máy tính
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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