Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 1.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 1.248
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 4 Nov 2026Valid through 19 Jul 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2024
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 18.4%89th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.12×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 1
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting signals of aggressive revenue and expense recognition: a Beneish M-Score of 3.4794 (98th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +5.85) driven by extreme DSRI and SGAI (both 10.0000) and a high GMI (2.2975). Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (35/100) with particularly poor receivables, margin and revenue quality (each 0/100). Financial distress indicators are also concerning: Altman Z-Score -0.14 (distress zone) while operating-fundamentals are mixed with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9.
- Beneish M-Score 3.4794 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns); company is at the 98th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and M-Score rose by +5.85 year-over-year (a meaningful shift compared with low year-to-year correlation).
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 10.0000 (measures unusual growth in receivables relative to sales), indicating receivables grew far faster than revenue.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 10.0000 (measures abnormal growth in SGA relative to sales), which can signal expense deferral or reclassification.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 2.2975 (measures deterioration in gross margin) — a reading >1 suggests worsening margins year-over-year.
- Receivables quality = 0/100 and 'Receivables outside the trade cycle' = 18.4% of total assets (89th percentile among VN non-financials) (measures level of receivables/prepayments/long-term receivables that are not normal trade receivables).
- Margin quality = 0/100 and Revenue quality = 0/100 (measures persistence/quality of margins and revenue recognition patterns).
- Altman Z-Score = -0.14 (measures distance to bankruptcy; this is in the distress zone).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.1234 (measures accruals; negative large accruals can reflect one-off adjustments or cash/earnings disconnects to investigate).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures nine fundamental signals; a middle/low score indicating mixed operational and profitability signals).
- Accumulated losses = 0.12x paid-in capital (measures cumulative retained losses relative to equity base).
- Accruals quality = 100/100 (measures the quality of accruals; here accruals appear high quality by the metric used).
- LVGI = 0.9437 (leverage-growth index close to 1 suggests leverage did not spike abnormally relative to asset growth).
- SGI = 0.0149 (sales growth index near zero indicates little revenue growth, reducing some risks associated with aggressive growth accounting).
- Owner's equity excluding minority interest: positive (measures solvency on the parent’s balance sheet).
- Statutory loss tests: company is on UPCoM where the HOSE/HNX statutory cancellation test does not apply (a factual statement about listing venue and applicable rule).
Ownership is concentrated in individuals: the top three natural persons hold 21.8%, 11.4% and 10.2% respectively, giving substantial insider control. Institutional ownership is small (largest institution 4.9%); director-deal disclosures show one sale registration and no purchase registrations in the last year (registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the FY2024 breakdown of 'receivables and prepayments' in the notes to the statement of financial position and quantify the 18.4% of total assets classified as prepayments/loans/long-term receivables.
- Reconcile revenue by product/segment with trade receivables and days-sales-outstanding in the management discussion or revenue note to understand the DSRI = 10.0000 signal.
- Inspect the SGA note and the SGA line in the income statement to track items causing SGAI = 10.0000 (look for one-off reversals, reclassifications or capitalized expenditures).
- Review the audit report, retained earnings/movements schedule and note on accumulated losses to confirm the 0.12x paid-in-capital figure and the single-year parent net loss disclosure.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- —
- P/S
- —
- ROE
- 0.0%
- ROA
- 0.0%
- Gross Margin
- 0.0%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- —
- Current Ratio
- 0.00
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 91.8M
- Charter Capital
- 918B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Truyền thông
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Truyền thông
- Sub-industry
- Sách, ấn bản & sản phẩm văn hóa
- Company Type
- CT