Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 19.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 19.364
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 47%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.9342nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 37.7%97th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5915 (77th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating more aggressive accounting than most local peers though above the US -1.78 cutoff; the year-over-year change is -0.06. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall score of 80.3/100 with perfect accruals, cash-conversion and receivables sub-scores, but weak margin (43.0/100) and revenue quality (25.3/100). Altman Z-Score is 2.55 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -1.5915 and Vietnam peer percentile 77th: the score is higher (more aggressive) than 77% of Vietnamese non-financial peers; note the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam.
- AQI (absquality index) 3.4918: elevated asset-quality adjustments or accrual-related flags feed the M-Score’s concern about asset/earnings distortions.
- LVGI 0.5824 and DSRI 0.5977: inventory/receivables-related signals are notable components of the M-Score (LVGI elevated; DSRI below 1 can indicate slower receivable build relative to sales but must be read with receivable composition).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle 37.7% of total assets (97th percentile): a very high proportion is classified as prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables, which is unusual relative to peers and concentrates credit/related-party exposure into non-trade items.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) 0.93 (42nd percentile): profit has not fully converted to cash over three years (ratio below 1 and middle-to-low percentile among Vietnamese peers).
- Revenue quality sub-score 25.3/100 and margin quality 43.0/100: weak scores that indicate reported revenues and margins may be supported by non-operating items or one-off adjustments rather than stable operating performance.
- Earnings Quality overall 80.3/100 with accruals quality 100/100: accruals are measured as high quality, suggesting little sign of classical accrual-based earnings smoothing in the measures used.
- Cash conversion sub-score 100/100 and receivables quality 100/100 in the Earnings Quality package: within that framework the company shows strong short-term cash and receivable indicators (contrasts with the three-year cash-conversion check — see checks).
- TATA -0.0135 (total accruals to total assets close to zero): indicates low net accruals in the period measured, supporting the high accruals-quality score.
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9: a neutral-to-favourable score showing several healthy fundamentals (profitability/liquidity/operating efficiency signals) rather than widespread deterioration.
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent net loss in 0 consecutive years up to FY2025: statutory equity and profit tests in the published statements do not show statutory loss conditions.
Shareholding is highly concentrated: SGI Holdings owns 74.9% and Thành Công Securities 9.5%, leaving limited free float and significant group control. Director-deal registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 show intentions to trade: one sale registration (7,978,558 shares) and three purchase registrations (total 11,049,958 shares), net registered volume +15.67% of shares outstanding — these are registered intentions, not executed trades, and large registered volumes can reflect repeated registrations by the same holder.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) on 'loans and receivables' / 'other long-term receivables' to the balance-sheet line that totals 37.7% of assets and identify counterparties and related-party flags.
- Reconcile the operating cash-flow statement and the profit-and-loss note for the three-year period to verify the 3-year cash conversion ratio of 0.93 and itemize major non-cash adjustments.
- Inspect the revenue-disaggregation note and the schedules for one-off, other income and related-party revenue to assess why revenue quality is 25.3/100.
- Read the ownership and related-party transactions disclosure and the director-share-registration announcements to confirm who registered the 7,978,558-share sale and the 11,049,958-share purchases and whether those registrants are major shareholders or related persons.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.33
- P/S
- 1.23
- ROE
- 9.1%
- ROA
- 5.4%
- EPS
- 967
- BVPS
- 13.497
- Gross Margin
- 43.9%
- Net Margin
- 6.6%
- D/E
- 0.25
- Current Ratio
- 1.51
- Rev Growth
- +24.8%
- Profit Growth
- −9.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 11.11
- Div Yield
- 1.4%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 19.6M
- Charter Capital
- 196B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng cá nhân
- Company Type
- CT