TYA
Công ty Cổ phần Dây và Cáp điện Taya Việt Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 16.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 15.808
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.1224th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.9%33rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5689 (78th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +0.84, signalling that its accounting behaviour is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially in the last year. Earnings-quality diagnostics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 26.9/100) driven by very poor cash-conversion and margin/revenue signals (Cash conversion 0.0/100; Margin quality 0.0/100; Revenue quality 0.0/100), while receivables quality is relatively strong (82.8/100). The Altman Z-Score is 2.76 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -1.5689: above the US -1.78 threshold but the Vietnamese context matters; the score ranks at the 78th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and increased by +0.84 year-over-year, indicating a material shift in the accounting profile.
- Very low cash conversion: Cash conversion component = 0.0/100 and three-year operating cash flow / net profit = 0.12 (24th percentile among VN non-financials). This measures the company’s ability to turn reported profit into operating cash flow — a low figure suggests profits are not being realised in cash.
- Zero margin and revenue quality scores: Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100, indicating the algorithms found patterns in margins and top-line recognition that lower confidence in reported operating performance.
- Elevated SGI and LVGI contributors to M-Score: SGI = 1.2610 (sales growth index) and LVGI = 1.0853 (leverage growth index) are above 1, measuring faster sales growth and higher leverage year-over-year—both can be associated with pressure to sustain growth and higher risk of accounting smoothing.
- TATA (total accruals) low but non-negligible: TATA = 0.1953 measures discretionary accruals; a positive figure of 19.53% of assets indicates accruals are adding to reported profit and should be checked in detail.
- Altman Z-Score 2.76 (grey zone): measures bankruptcy distance; being in the grey zone suggests limited cushion compared with safer firms.
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (neutral): measures near-term fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a middling score indicates mixed operational fundamentals.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle low: 0.9% of total assets (33rd percentile). This metric measures prepayments, loans receivable and other non-trade receivables; a low percentage reduces concern about material related-party loans or long-term receivables hiding cash flows.
- Receivables quality high: Receivables quality = 82.8/100, indicating the algorithm finds fewer red flags in revenue-related receivables recognition and aging.
- AQI (asset quality index) supportive: AQI = 0.5169 (<1). AQI measures write-offs and non-current asset shifts; a value below 1 generally signals fewer asset-quality deterioration signals feeding into the M-Score.
- No accumulated losses and equity positive: Undistributed earnings are not negative, owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive, and there were 0 years of parent net loss through FY2025, which are concrete balance-sheet and profit continuity positives.
- Director-deal registrations skew to purchases: Four purchase registrations (45,500 shares across three registrants) and zero sale registrations registered in the last 12 months; registrations measure declared intentions to trade, not executed transactions.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Taya Vietnam (Cayman) Holding Ltd. holds 80.0% (institutional), with the next largest holders at 3.5%, 2.4% and smaller institutional stakes. This concentration implies control is tightly held by the Cayman holding entity; 0 sale registrations and several purchase registrations by insiders/related persons are recorded but registrations are intentions, not executed trades.
- Compare the 2025 operating cash flow reconciliation (cash flow statement and related note) with consolidated net profit to verify the components driving the 3‑year cash conversion ratio of 0.12.
- Inspect the notes supporting trade and non‑trade receivables (receivables aging, related‑party receivables and prepayments) to confirm the 0.9% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile total accruals and the TATA calculation by reviewing the accounting policies and notes for provisions, depreciation and other non-cash adjustments that produce TATA = 0.1953.
- Review financing and debt schedule notes for the year-over-year leverage increase (LVGI = 1.0853) and the drivers of SGI = 1.2610 (sales growth), including related-party transactions and off‑balance financing disclosures.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.79
- P/S
- 0.22
- ROE
- 19.9%
- ROA
- 8.4%
- EPS
- 3.863
- BVPS
- 20.892
- Gross Margin
- 10.8%
- Net Margin
- 5.1%
- D/E
- 1.34
- Current Ratio
- 1.59
- Rev Growth
- +26.1%
- Profit Growth
- +52.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.21
- Div Yield
- 4.9%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 30.7M
- Charter Capital
- 307B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
- Sub-industry
- Hàng điện & điện tử
- Company Type
- CT