Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.540
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.076
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.6%45th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.6072 (90th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), showing it scores more aggressively on accounting signals than most Vietnamese listed companies; the year-over-year M-Score change is -1.95, a large move relative to prior years. Earnings-quality components are mixed: Revenue quality is very high at 99.1/100 while cash-conversion and margin quality are 0.0/100; the Altman Z-Score is 1.51 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral fundamentals).
- High Beneish peer ranking: M-Score = -0.6072, Vietnam peer percentile = 90th (this measures a composite of accruals and financial ratios linked to earnings manipulation risk; higher percentile means more aggressive accounting vs VN peers).
- Large year-over-year M-Score change: ΔM-Score = -1.95 (the magnitude suggests a recent shift in the accounting profile; consecutive-year M-Scores have low serial correlation, so this is a secondary cue rather than a definitive label).
- Days’ Sales Receivable Index elevated: DSRI = 1.1802 (measures receivables relative to sales; >1 can indicate receivables growing faster than sales).
- Accrual-related and margin concerns in earnings-quality: Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100 (cash-generation and reported margin sustainability score very poorly).
- Receivables quality low: Receivables quality = 24.0/100 and 'receivables outside the trade cycle' = 1.6% of total assets (45th percentile) – suggests a material portion of receivables are prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables rather than trade receivables.
- Altman Z-Score in distress zone: Z-Score = 1.51 (this canonical score measures distance to bankruptcy; values below ~1.8 are commonly flagged as 'distress').
- Very high revenue-quality score: Revenue quality = 99.1/100 (this measures the portion of revenue supported by cash flows and low one-off adjustments).
- Accruals quality reasonable: Accruals quality = 75.5/100 (suggests reported accruals are not extreme relative to peers).
- No accumulated statutory losses and parent profit track record: Accumulated losses = none; Net loss (parent) = 0 consecutive years up to FY2025, and owner's equity (excluding minorities) is positive (these are factual signs of not meeting the statutory loss triggers).
- SGAI and DEPI not extreme in the manipulation palette: SGAI = 1.0574 (selling, general & admin expense growth modest) and DEPI = 0.9002 (depreciation index not showing obvious slowdown of depreciation policy).
Top shareholder concentration: Hanwa Company Limited holds 19.6% and the next largest individual is Phạm Hoàng Anh at 8.1%; other named individuals hold 3.2% and 2.3%. Insider activity filings show 4 sale registrations and 6 purchase registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (total registered volumes where disclosed: sales 7,900,000 shares, purchases 17,900,000 shares), indicating shareholder and insider registration activity but registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the 'receivables outside the trade cycle' line (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables) in the FY2025 notes with the balance-sheet total to confirm the 1.6% of total assets figure and inspect related-party descriptions.
- Review the related-party transactions note for FY2025 to reconcile any loans receivable, advances to suppliers or non-trade receivables and confirm whether those balances are with group entities or third parties.
- Open the auditor's report and the statutory-loss schedule in the audited FY2025 financial statements to confirm which statutory loss tests were or were not met (the published statements report none met).
- Examine the exchange disclosures/schedule of insider registrations for 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 to verify the 4 sale and 6 purchase registrations, the registrants named, and the disclosed volumes.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.68
- P/S
- 0.10
- ROE
- 19.2%
- ROA
- 3.9%
- EPS
- 2.447
- BVPS
- 13.989
- Gross Margin
- 0.0%
- Net Margin
- 2.8%
- D/E
- 2.03
- Current Ratio
- 0.80
- Rev Growth
- −21.5%
- Profit Growth
- +472.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 19.47
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 110M
- Charter Capital
- 1,104B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Kim loại
- Sub-industry
- Thép và sản phẩm thép
- Company Type
- CT