Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.232
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.5816th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 7.0%74th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 0.1161 (94th percentile versus Vietnamese peers), indicating its combination of signals is more aggressive than most local peers; the M-Score's year-over-year change is -5.73 which marks when the accounting profile began to move. Component drivers include a very high DSRI (2.7071), elevated SGI (1.5392) and a positive TATA (0.0771); at the same time Altman Z-Score is 15.76 (well into the safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (moderately healthy fundamentals).
- Beneish DSRI = 2.7071 (measures days-sales-in-receivables growth relative to sales; a high DSRI suggests receivables or revenue recognition have grown faster than sales).
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Cash conversion = 24.9/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 (these measure how reported profit converts to cash and the quality/collectibility of receivables; both are very low).
- Vietnam check — three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.58 (16th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; indicates reported profits have not been converting into operating cash over three years).
- Earnings-Quality total = 23.5/100 with Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these indicate weak underlying earnings drivers and revenue persistence measures in the scoring framework).
- LVGI = 0.3313 (sales growth volatility index; elevated value implies greater volatility in growth — this can complicate revenue-quality assessment).
- Altman Z-Score = 15.76 (measures bankruptcy distance using balance-sheet and earnings items; this is in the 'safe' zone relative to distress thresholds).
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of financial strength; a 6 indicates several healthy operational and balance-sheet metrics).
- Beneish GMI = 1.0000 and DEPI = 0.7726 (GMI measures gross-margin deterioration; GMI = 1.0 shows no gross-margin worsening in the index, DEPI <1 indicates depreciation patterns have not moved in the direction that Beneish associates with earnings inflation).
- No accumulated losses and zero years of parent net loss through FY2025; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive, and statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (amended) are not met (these are objective facts from published statements showing no statutory-loss triggers).
Shareholding is concentrated: one individual, Võ Anh Linh, holds 35.6% and together with another individual, Phạm Thị Thu Hà (9.0%), insiders/individuals hold substantial stakes; an institutional shareholder holds 6.1%. This concentration and the presence of large individual owners are facts that can affect related‑party flows and group transactions in the filings.
- Compare year‑by‑year trade receivables, other receivables and prepayments in the notes to the consolidated balance sheet to quantify the DSRI driver (DSRI = 2.7071).
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cash-flow statement and the notes to reproduce the three‑year cash conversion ratio (reported as -0.58) and identify drivers (non‑cash items, working‑capital swings, related‑party receivables).
- Inspect the related‑party note and schedules for loans, prepayments or long‑term receivables (receivables outside the trade cycle = 7.0% of total assets) and disclose counterparties and terms.
- Verify the statutory loss tests and equity position: check the parent profit/loss line, retained earnings/accumulated losses note, and the auditor’s report to confirm none of the statutory loss conditions are met.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.38
- P/S
- 2736.29
- ROE
- 12.1%
- ROA
- 11.6%
- EPS
- 1.518
- BVPS
- 13.265
- Gross Margin
- 100.0%
- Net Margin
- 81425.7%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 26.74
- Rev Growth
- +20.0%
- Profit Growth
- +152.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 32.2M
- Charter Capital
- 322B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT