Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 12.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 14.662
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.4863rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 17.5%89th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.2985 (Vietnam peer percentile: 83rd) with a year-over-year increase of +1.58, indicating accounting accrual measures are more aggressive versus Vietnamese peers and have recently moved toward more aggression. Earnings-quality diagnostics are mixed: accruals quality is strong (100/100) and cash conversion is healthy (85.6/100), but receivables quality and revenue quality score 0/100. The Altman Z-Score is 3.98 (in the 'safe' zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, showing balance-sheet and operating strength.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.2985 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight variables); this is above the US -1.78 cut-off and sits at the 83rd percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers).
- Year-over-year change in M-Score = +1.58 (measures the recent shift in the composite manipulation signal), indicating the company’s M-Score moved materially toward the aggressive side in the last year.
- DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 2.1798 (component of the M-Score that measures receivables growth relative to sales), signalling receivables are rising much faster than revenue.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.1017 (measures shift into non-current/less-liquid asset categories), consistent with increased non-standard asset recognition.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.1246 (measures a reduction in depreciation rates or slower expensing), which can inflate reported profits by lowering depreciation expense.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1617 (measures rising leverage), showing higher leverage year over year in the M-Score components.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 17.5% of total assets (89th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials); this includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is a high proportion of assets.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (both measure signals that revenue and receivables are of poor quality relative to peers), consistent with elevated DSRI and large non-trade receivables.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0045 (close to zero but negative; while accruals quality is scored high, this small TATA alongside other M-Score components merits scrutiny).
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 (measures quality of accruals; indicates accruals are consistent with cash flows and recorded conservatively).
- Cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.48 (63rd percentile among Vietnamese peers; measures how profit turns into cash — above 1 implies cash generation in excess of reported profit over the window).
- Altman Z-Score = 3.98 (measures distance from bankruptcy; the company is in the 'safe' zone on this metric).
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9 (measures fundamental financial strength across profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency; 7 is a strong score).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.2096 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.8270 (SGI >1 shows revenue growth; GMI <1 indicates gross margin improved year over year).
Shareholding is highly concentrated among individuals: Nguyễn Đại Thắng 15.2%, Nguyễn Minh Thắng 14.7%, Nguyễn Xuân Phú 13.9%, Nguyễn Thị Vân Anh 11.2%, and Nguyễn Đình Hiệu 11.2%, together controlling a large block of equity. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data; registrations reported to the exchange are intentions, not executed trades.
- Compare the increase in 'receivables and other long-term receivables' (note or schedule) to revenue growth and the revenue note to reconcile the DSRI = 2.1798 with reported sales.
- Inspect the note(s) for 'prepayments to suppliers' and 'loans receivable — related parties' to quantify the 17.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparties and terms.
- Reconcile the cash flow statement (operating cash flows) with profit across the last three years to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio of 1.48 and review the components that drive cash from operations.
- Examine the fixed-asset schedule and depreciation policy/note to review the DEPI = 1.1246 implication (changes in depreciation methods, useful lives or residual values) and any impairments or revaluations.
- Confirm leverage and balance-sheet composition in the notes to reconcile LVGI = 1.1617 and the Altman Z-Score components (working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, total assets, market/book if disclosed).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.60
- P/S
- 0.50
- ROE
- 9.9%
- ROA
- 8.4%
- EPS
- 1.924
- BVPS
- 20.108
- Gross Margin
- 13.1%
- Net Margin
- 8.0%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 4.30
- Rev Growth
- +21.0%
- Profit Growth
- +69.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 1.34
- Div Yield
- 4.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 4.3M
- Charter Capital
- 43.1B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Vận tải Thủy
- Company Type
- CT