Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 651
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.8%71st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.81×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.4727 (91st percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.77, indicating accounting metrics are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and moving toward greater aggressiveness. Earnings-quality sub-scores show very weak cash conversion and margin/revenue quality (cash conversion 0.0/100, margin quality 0.0/100, revenue quality 0.0/100) despite high accruals and receivables quality (accruals quality 95.5/100; receivables quality 100.0/100). The Altman Z-Score of -0.62 places the company in the distress zone, while the Piotroski F-Score is neutral at 4/9.
- Beneish M-Score -0.4727 (91st percentile vs VN peers; YoY change +1.77) — the score is well above the US -1.78 threshold and ranks in the top decile of Vietnamese firms for aggressive accounting indicators, with a notable year-over-year rise of +1.77.
- GMI (gross margin index) = 3.2952 — measures deterioration in gross margins year-over-year; values >1 indicate margin pressure.
- SGI (sales growth index) = 2.3529 — measures unusually high sales growth (values >1 indicate growth that can be associated with earnings manipulation risk in some contexts).
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.0111 — positive accruals; while small in absolute terms, TATA contributes to the M-Score and must be interpreted with the cash-conversion and margin signals.
- Altman Z-Score = -0.62 (distress zone) — this bankruptcy-distance measure suggests financial distress under the Altman model.
- Earnings-quality composite 43.9/100 with cash conversion 0.0/100, margin quality 0.0/100, revenue quality 0.0/100 — indicates weak convertibility of reported earnings into cash and weak margin/revenue reliability.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.8% of total assets (70th percentile vs VN peers) — a material portion of receivables is not trade-related (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables) which can complicate revenue/earnings recognition analysis.
- Accumulated losses = 0.81x paid-in capital — accumulated losses are substantial relative to capital (0.81 times paid-in capital).
- Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): 0 sale registrations, 3 purchase registrations (one registration for 2,000,000 shares, one registration with unspecified volume) — registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.
- Accruals quality 95.5/100 and receivables quality 100.0/100 — the accruals profile and the measurable quality of receivables score well by the earnings-quality model.
- DSRI (days sales receivable index) = 0.3987 — a DSRI below 1 can indicate receivables are not ballooning relative to sales, consistent with the high receivables-quality score (but note the separate metric for non-trade receivables).
- DEPI (depreciation index) = 0.9706 and LVGI (leverage growth index) = 0.9816 — these are close to 1, indicating no large shifts in depreciation policy or leverage growth that often accompany aggressive accounting.
- No reported parent net loss in the most recent year (0 consecutive years of net loss up to FY2025) and positive owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) — the primary statements show positive equity and not currently reporting a parent loss in the latest year.
Shareholding is concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng Dầu khí Nghệ An holds 40.5%, and three individuals hold large stakes (Trần Thị Toàn 24.4%, Lê Mạnh Trung 22.9%, Đường Hùng Cường 14.4%); combined these reflect strong control by institution and insiders. Director-deal filings show only purchase registrations (3) and no sale registrations in the disclosed period; these are registered intentions, not executed trades.
- Compare the 2025 line items for "loans receivable" and "other long-term receivables" in the notes to the balance sheet against the 5.8% of total assets figure for receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the statement of cash flows 2023–2025 with the reported cash-conversion quality (cash conversion 0.0/100) — inspect operating cash flow, changes in working capital and a note to accruals/total accruals (TATA = 0.0111).
- Review the auditor’s report and the statement of owner’s equity for disclosures explaining accumulated losses equal to 0.81x paid-in capital and any management commentary on capital adequacy.
- Inspect director and related-party transaction disclosures and the exchange’s director-deal registry entries for the three purchase registrations (including the 2,000,000-share registration) to confirm counterparties, purpose and dates; remember these are registered intentions, not proof of execution.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.25
- P/S
- 0.14
- ROE
- 1.4%
- ROA
- 0.2%
- EPS
- 29
- BVPS
- 2.036
- Gross Margin
- 20.8%
- Net Margin
- 0.8%
- D/E
- 1.54
- Current Ratio
- 1.04
- Rev Growth
- +135.3%
- Profit Growth
- +153.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 13.18
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 15.0M
- Charter Capital
- 150B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT