Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 118.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 120.037
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.6935th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 9.2%79th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows several accounting signals consistent with above-peer accounting aggressiveness: a Beneish M-Score of 0.3006 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.19, and an AQI (abnormal quality index) of 5.7918. At the same time, operating liquidity and cash-generation metrics are weak (three-year cash conversion 0.69, in the 35th percentile) while solvency-distance is strong (Altman Z-Score 12.01) and fundamentals are broadly neutral (Piotroski F-Score 6/9).
- High Beneish M-Score at 0.3006 and Vietnam peer percentile 94th: the M-Score measures a combination of eight financial ratios designed to flag likely earnings manipulation; here the score is high relative to Vietnamese peers and moved up by +2.19 year-over-year, indicating a notable recent trajectory in the accounting signals.
- Very high AQI (5.7918): AQI summarizes unusual or extreme items and adjustments; an elevated AQI suggests more accounting-level anomalies or one-off adjustments compared with peers.
- Elevated DEPI at 2.1918 and LVGI at 1.3195: DEPI (depreciation index) >1.0 measures slower depreciation (possible earnings-enhancing policy changes), and LVGI (leverage growth index) >1.0 signals rising leverage; both can be associated with accounting choices that boost short-term reported profit.
- Weak cash conversion and low cash-quality components: three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.69 (35th percentile) and Cash conversion score in earnings-quality = 20.1/100, indicating profits have not been converting into cash as well as most peers.
- Revenue-quality and total accruals concerns: Revenue quality 28.6/100 and Accruals quality 39.1/100 point to reliance on accruals and a lower-quality revenue pattern relative to peers.
- Receivables quality 100.0/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle only 9.2% of total assets (79th percentile): the company’s receivables appear comparatively clean and not dominated by long-term or non-trade receivables.
- Altman Z-Score 12.01 (safe zone): the Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk and the company is well into the safe range by this metric.
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9 (neutral to positive): this score of operating and earnings fundamentals suggests broadly acceptable underlying performance across profitability, leverage/liquidity and operational efficiency checks.
- Margin quality 65.7/100 and DSRI 0.9612: margin quality is relatively strong and DSRI (days’ sales receivable index) below 1.0 does not indicate a growing receivables problem.
Ownership is concentrated: two institutions hold 67.8% between Công ty TNHH MTV Dược Sài Gòn (43.4%) and Công ty TNHH Sinh phẩm và Dược phẩm Tasco (24.4%), with other institutional holders and a small individual stake (Trần Văn Nhiều 0.7%). Director-deal disclosures show 5 sale registrations and 4 purchase registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30; these are registered intentions with the exchange (not executed trades).
- Compare the 2025 schedule/note for trade and non-trade receivables to confirm the 9.2% of total assets classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (look for notes labelled 'receivables', 'prepayments' or 'long-term receivables').
- Reconcile the consolidated cash-flow statement and the parent profit (or consolidated profit) to verify the three-year operating cash flow / net profit ratio (0.69) and identify large adjustments to reconcile profit to cash from operations.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation note to confirm any changes in depreciation method or useful lives that would explain DEPI = 2.1918 (depreciation index >1).
- Review related-party disclosures and the statement of loans/advances to parties to check for any material prepayments, loans receivable, or long-term receivables contributing to revenue-quality (28.6/100) or AQI (5.7918).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 4.61
- P/S
- 2.03
- ROE
- 31.0%
- ROA
- 22.8%
- EPS
- 8.819
- BVPS
- 25.808
- Gross Margin
- 40.8%
- Net Margin
- 15.1%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 2.10
- Rev Growth
- +9.9%
- Profit Growth
- +2.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.73
- Div Yield
- 9.8%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 9.3M
- Charter Capital
- 93.3B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Y tế
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Dược phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Dược phẩm
- Company Type
- CT