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Công ty Cổ phần Cấp thoát nước Bến Tre

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtNước & Khí đốtUPCOMCT
13.800
VND · Close 28 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
13.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
16.042

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.820
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend5.34%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS→1.100
Payout ratio→58.4%
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→13.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
16.042
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate5.34%growth method: fundamental equity blend
Dividend per share1.100dps source: eventspayout ratio: 58.38
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·749392528112113010379531455246
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·5678632347271058159271101724
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)
·00000610000000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·621716192117141515161318
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·50.910.50.9420.710.3639
Net Inventories
·11121010121178478124
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·11121010121178478124
Other current assets
·1113420.10.030.02411110.2
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000000.2
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·455455461459437405398421446482438335235
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·424425416429417385394420436463311334234
Tangible fixed assets
·424425416429417385393419436463311219205
Intagible fixed assets
·0.10.20.040.090.10.040.40.70.010.020.040.30.4
Other non-current assets
·29231920151120.98570.91
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·29231920151120.98570.91
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·529548552510519525528524525535583387281
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·73901109911313315517621223730314096
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·374548524544434152721723327
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·16272619191919222523201714
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.20.20.20.20.20.30.20.20.30.30480,0900
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·36456247689011113516016513110869
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·3645624462819912016016513110869
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·456458443411405392374347312298280246185
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·456458443411405392374347312298280246185
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·294294294294294294294294280280280102102
Other Reserves
·000000000008238
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·12711195826753331413305340
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·35535435444547392015095
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·529548552510519525528524525535583387281
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·294294294294294294294294280280280102102
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
64
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
18

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −0.80 · 89th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.80
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
3.012
GMI
0.960
AQI
1.103
SGI
0.998
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
1.193
TATA
−0.045
LVGI
0.843

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.5164th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
1.0%35th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.8023 (89th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.80, signalling an above‑peer shift in accounting aggressiveness rather than an absolute US‑calibrated breach of -1.78. Key internal signals: very high Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI = 3.0121) and weak revenue/receivables metrics (Revenue quality 18.1/100; Receivables quality 0.0/100), while accruals and cash conversion metrics look strong (Accruals quality 100/100; Cash conversion 100/100; TATA = -0.0450).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score = -0.8023 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using 8 variables); despite being above the US threshold, the Vietnam percentile is more informative: 89th percentile (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and a notable year‑over‑year rise of +2.80 (shows accounting metrics moved materially this year).
  • DSRI = 3.0121 (Days Sales Receivable Index, measures growth in receivables relative to sales) — a large DSRI indicates receivables grew much faster than sales and is a primary contributor to the M‑Score increase.
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 (an earnings‑quality component that rates the quality of receivables and the likelihood of revenue recognition issues) and Revenue quality = 18.1/100 (measures sustainability/quality of reported revenue) — both indicate weak revenue/receivable quality.
  • SGAI = 1.1926 (Sales, General & Admin expense index; measures SGA growth relative to sales) — SGA rose faster than sales which can signal expense recognition shifts or margin pressure masked by accounting choices.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.0% of total assets (35th percentile among VN non-financials) — while the absolute share is modest, the low receivables quality and large DSRI suggest those receivables deserve scrutiny for timing or related‑party classification.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100 (measures how much profit is driven by non‑cash accruals) and TATA = -0.0450 (Total Accruals to Total Assets, measures accrual magnitude) — both indicate low abnormal accruals and that reported profits are not driven by large working‑capital accruals.
  • Cash conversion score = 100.0/100 and three‑year operating cash flow / net profit = 1.51 (64th percentile) — reported earnings generally convert into cash; the 1.51 ratio means operating cash flow exceeded net profit over three years.
  • Altman Z‑Score = 5.48 (measures distance from bankruptcy) — places the company in the 'safe' zone on bankruptcy risk metrics.
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 7/9 (measures nine fundamental improvements) — indicates generally strong accounting and operating fundamentals year‑to‑year.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated with state entities listed as major holders (Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Vĩnh Long 64.0% and Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Bến Tre 64.0%), indicating dominant state control or an overlap in reported holdings; institutional holders are Công ty CP Cấp Thoát Nước Thủy Anh 17.4% and Công ty TNHH Hoàn Cầu 15.0%, and an individual holds 0.1%. Director‑deal registrations show one purchase registration of 4,150 shares (net registered +0.01% of shares outstanding) in the last year — registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the breakdown of trade receivables, prepayments, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables in the 2025 notes to total assets and to sales — reconcile the receivables subcategories to the DSRI movement (DSRI = 3.0121).
  • Review the related‑party disclosures and the schedule of receivables from related parties in the 2025 annual report to see whether receivables outside the trade cycle (1.0% of assets) are concentrated with related parties or have unusual terms.
  • Reconcile profit before tax to operating cash flows in the cash flow statement and the notes (three‑year operating cash flow / net profit = 1.51) to confirm cash collection patterns behind the high cash‑conversion and the low accruals signals.
  • Inspect the SGA note and revenue recognition policy (note on revenue and significant accounting policies) to understand drivers of SGA growth (SGAI = 1.1926) and whether any revenue timing or contract‑based recognition practices could explain the low revenue quality score (18.1/100).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
5.48
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.43
Negative
Composite
53
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.83×Interest Burden1.05×Op. Margin0.26×Turnover0.46×Leverage1.16=ROE11.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
−12.7%
Volatility
59.7%
Max Drawdown
−35.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.51P/E
P/B
0.89
P/S
1.68
ROE
11.8%
ROA
10.0%
EPS
1.837
BVPS
15.500
Gross Margin
65.9%
Net Margin
22.3%
D/E
0.12
Current Ratio
2.01
Rev Growth
−0.2%
Profit Growth
−1.3%
EV/EBITDA
3.73
Div Yield
11.6%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
29.4M
Charter Capital
294B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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