VLP
Công ty Cổ phần Công trình Công cộng Vĩnh Long
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 1.227
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2024
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.8315th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.3%19th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.3938 (82nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating accounting attributes more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change is -1.08, showing the biggest movement occurred this year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak (Earnings Quality 18.8/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables quality (0.0/100), while Altman Z-Score = 2.41 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance and Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.3938 (82nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers). The M-Score is a composite that signals abnormal accruals and earnings manipulation risk relative to peers; the 82nd percentile means this company scores more aggressively than 82% of Vietnamese non-financial listed firms.
- Year-over-year M-Score change = -1.08. A large annual shift is a secondary cue that accounting measures moved materially this year (note Beneish's original -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferable to Vietnam).
- DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.3636. DSRI >1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales, which can indicate revenue recognition timing differences or collection deterioration.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.7703. AQI >1 implies a bigger share of assets in potentially less-productive or subjective categories (e.g., long-term receivables, prepayments, intangible/other assets), which can create opportunities for earnings management.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1124. Positive and material accruals (11.24% of assets) indicate earnings include significant accruals rather than cash; in combination with poor cash conversion, this raises questions about earnings sustainability.
- Earnings-Quality overall = 18.8/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100. These sub-scores flag that reported profit is not converting to cash and receivables/prepayments raise quality concerns.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.83 (15th percentile among VN peers). Negative and low percentile means profits have not translated into operating cash over three years.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (weak). A low score reflects weak profitability, liquidity and/or operating performance metrics used by Piotroski to assess fundamental health.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9493. GMI <1 indicates gross margins have not deteriorated year-over-year, which reduces one common motive for aggressive accounting to hide margin deterioration.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.9676. SGI slightly below 1 indicates modest or slight negative sales growth rather than high growth; high SGI can be a pressure to manage earnings, so absence of rapid growth lessens that pressure.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.9223 and SGAI (SG&A Index) = 0.9303, both <1. These indicate reported depreciation and SG&A patterns have not moved in directions that typically signal aggressive capitalization or immediate expense understatement in the Beneish components.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1000. A modest increase in leverage (10%) is visible but not extreme in isolation; it is a measurable change to monitor alongside other metrics.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025. These published-statement facts show the company is not reporting statutory accumulated losses in its consolidated statements for FY2025.
Control is highly concentrated: Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Vĩnh Long (state) holds 81.2% of shares. The remaining top individual shareholders each hold 0.6% or less. Such dominant state ownership implies strategic, governance and related-party dynamics (state influence, group relationships) are likely to be important in the company’s transactions and disclosures.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) on trade receivables, loans receivable and prepayments with the balance labeled as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (reported as 0.3% of total assets) and inspect maturity/profile lines.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes to confirm components driving Cash conversion = -0.83 (three-year operating cash flow / net profit); identify major non-cash adjustments and timing items.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the depreciation policy/disclosures to understand the drivers behind DEPI = 0.9223 and the AQI = 1.7703 (increases in ‘other’ or long-term assets).
- Review related-party transaction notes (sales/purchases, loans, prepayments) and the schedule of balances with parent/subsidiaries or entities controlled by the state shareholder to see whether large balances contribute to receivables, prepayments or accruals.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.06
- P/S
- 0.06
- ROE
- 2.1%
- ROA
- 1.9%
- EPS
- 294
- BVPS
- 14.202
- Gross Margin
- 20.9%
- Net Margin
- 2.0%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 8.14
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- 22.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 3.5M
- Charter Capital
- 35.4B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh
- Sub-industry
- Chất thải & Môi trường
- Company Type
- CT