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VLP

Công ty Cổ phần Công trình Công cộng Vĩnh Long

VietnamConsumerHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpTư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhUPCOMCT
900
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+36.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
900
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
1.227

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The closing price is too old for comparison.
  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
  • Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
  • Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.000
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.49%
Ke
11.49%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.49%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→2.08B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→900
Calibrated value vs last close→+36.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
1.227
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.49%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow2.1 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
9.5%1.2271.2271.2271.2271.227
10.5%1.2271.2271.2271.2271.227
11.5%1.2271.2271.2271.2271.227
12.5%1.2271.2271.2271.2271.227
13.5%1.2271.2271.2271.2271.227
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·43415554505951433636425337
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·29218273291024995
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1091515000000000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·29221729232741323431314131
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.20.220.40.31.00.80.20.110.70.61
Net Inventories
·0.40.30.50.70.30.020.20.20.20.210.20.8
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·0.40.30.50.70.30.020.20.20.20.210.20.8
Other current assets
·1.020.70.50.30.070.810.070.060.220.5
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000020.5
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·13141517111011131517131213
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·11131313968101113131213
Tangible fixed assets
·11131313968101113131213
Other non-current assets
·20.822333444000.02
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·20.822333444000.02
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·55557071616862575153556550
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·551719111613101017203723
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·551719111613101017203723
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·00.010.000.0000000.23630.000.51
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.010
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·50505253505349474136342827
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·50505252505349464135342826
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·35353535353535353534282524
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·14141313118530.50122
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·0.6243399752400
Budget sources and other funds
·0.5−0.00−0.000.900.02−0.20.9−0.20.60.70.40.7
Budget sources and other funds
··−0.00−0.000.900.02−0.20.9−0.20.60.70.40.7
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·55557071616862575153556550
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·35353535353535353534282524

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
19
Poor
Accrual Quality
57
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
12

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.39 · 82nd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −1.08
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.364
GMI
0.949
AQI
1.770
SGI
0.968
DEPI
0.922
SGAI
0.930
TATA
0.112
LVGI
1.100

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.8315th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.3%19th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.3938 (82nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating accounting attributes more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change is -1.08, showing the biggest movement occurred this year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak (Earnings Quality 18.8/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables quality (0.0/100), while Altman Z-Score = 2.41 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance and Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.3938 (82nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers). The M-Score is a composite that signals abnormal accruals and earnings manipulation risk relative to peers; the 82nd percentile means this company scores more aggressively than 82% of Vietnamese non-financial listed firms.
  • Year-over-year M-Score change = -1.08. A large annual shift is a secondary cue that accounting measures moved materially this year (note Beneish's original -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferable to Vietnam).
  • DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.3636. DSRI >1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales, which can indicate revenue recognition timing differences or collection deterioration.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.7703. AQI >1 implies a bigger share of assets in potentially less-productive or subjective categories (e.g., long-term receivables, prepayments, intangible/other assets), which can create opportunities for earnings management.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1124. Positive and material accruals (11.24% of assets) indicate earnings include significant accruals rather than cash; in combination with poor cash conversion, this raises questions about earnings sustainability.
  • Earnings-Quality overall = 18.8/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100. These sub-scores flag that reported profit is not converting to cash and receivables/prepayments raise quality concerns.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.83 (15th percentile among VN peers). Negative and low percentile means profits have not translated into operating cash over three years.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (weak). A low score reflects weak profitability, liquidity and/or operating performance metrics used by Piotroski to assess fundamental health.
Positive Signals
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9493. GMI <1 indicates gross margins have not deteriorated year-over-year, which reduces one common motive for aggressive accounting to hide margin deterioration.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.9676. SGI slightly below 1 indicates modest or slight negative sales growth rather than high growth; high SGI can be a pressure to manage earnings, so absence of rapid growth lessens that pressure.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.9223 and SGAI (SG&A Index) = 0.9303, both <1. These indicate reported depreciation and SG&A patterns have not moved in directions that typically signal aggressive capitalization or immediate expense understatement in the Beneish components.
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1000. A modest increase in leverage (10%) is visible but not extreme in isolation; it is a measurable change to monitor alongside other metrics.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025. These published-statement facts show the company is not reporting statutory accumulated losses in its consolidated statements for FY2025.
Ownership Risk

Control is highly concentrated: Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Vĩnh Long (state) holds 81.2% of shares. The remaining top individual shareholders each hold 0.6% or less. Such dominant state ownership implies strategic, governance and related-party dynamics (state influence, group relationships) are likely to be important in the company’s transactions and disclosures.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note(s) on trade receivables, loans receivable and prepayments with the balance labeled as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (reported as 0.3% of total assets) and inspect maturity/profile lines.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes to confirm components driving Cash conversion = -0.83 (three-year operating cash flow / net profit); identify major non-cash adjustments and timing items.
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the depreciation policy/disclosures to understand the drivers behind DEPI = 0.9223 and the AQI = 1.7703 (increases in ‘other’ or long-term assets).
  • Review related-party transaction notes (sales/purchases, loans, prepayments) and the schedule of balances with parent/subsidiaries or entities controlled by the state shareholder to see whether large balances contribute to receivables, prepayments or accruals.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.41
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.00
Negative
Composite
98
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.61×Interest Burden0.46×Op. Margin0.07×Turnover0.94×Leverage1.10=ROE2.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.0%
Volatility
0.0%
Max Drawdown
−0.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
3.06P/E
P/B
0.06
P/S
0.06
ROE
2.1%
ROA
1.9%
EPS
294
BVPS
14.202
Gross Margin
20.9%
Net Margin
2.0%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
8.14
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
22.2%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
3.5M
Charter Capital
35.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh
Sub-industry
Chất thải & Môi trường
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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