LIC

Business Overview

Tổng Công ty LICOGI - Công ty Cổ phần is a construction and building materials company listed on UPCOM. Revenue was VND 2,276.4 bn in 2025, following VND 2,249.7 bn in 2024 and VND 2,035.9 bn in 2023; the latest reported revenue growth was 1.2% year on year, indicating limited recent top-line momentum.

Net profit improved from a VND 1.3 bn loss in 2023 to VND 59.7 bn in 2024 and VND 81.3 bn in 2025. The shareholder register is concentrated: the State Capital Investment Corporation holds 40.7%, while two institutional investors hold 35.0% and 19.2%. No director or related-party trade registrations were reported over the 12 months to 2026-10-30; registrations, in any event, are not evidence of executed trades.

Key points

LIC's reported profitability has recovered, with 2025 net profit of VND 81.3 bn and latest ROE of 18.4%. However, the latest net profit margin is 4.7%, while the EBIT margin is 3.1%; the high ROE should therefore be read alongside substantial leverage and weak cash realization rather than as evidence of unqualified operating strength.

Balance-sheet risk is material: debt/equity is 4.6x, and total assets rose to VND 5,406.6 bn in 2025 from VND 4,616.6 bn in 2024. Three-year operating cash flow to net profit is -4.0x, at the 6.4th percentile versus Vietnamese peers. This divergence makes earnings conversion and the recoverability of receivables important diligence priorities.

At VND 27,000, the shares trade at 29.9x P/E, 5.1x P/B and 41.0x EV/EBITDA. The calibrated intrinsic value of VND 29,595 implies a 9.6% illustrative gap, but the estimate is from an earlier version of a back-test and is not a forecast return or evidence of mispricing. The modest comparison does not resolve the tension between recent profit growth, high leverage, and poor cash conversion.

Valuation Commentary

The supplied calibrated intrinsic value uses EV/EBITDA on mid-cycle EBITDA. It is an illustrative estimate from an earlier version of a back-test, compared with the last close; it is not a forecast or a price target.

• Calibrated intrinsic value: VND 29,595 per share.
• Market price at the supplied assessment: VND 27,000 per share.
• The supplied calibrated gap is 9.6%; it is an illustrative comparison, not an expected return.
• The market multiples are 29.9x P/E, 5.1x P/B and 41.0x EV/EBITDA.

Points in favour

• Net profit rose to VND 81.3 bn in 2025 from VND 59.7 bn in 2024, extending the recovery from a VND 1.3 bn loss in 2023.
• Latest ROE is 18.4%, with a 4.7% net profit margin and 10.8% gross profit margin.
• The calibrated intrinsic value is VND 29,595 per share versus the VND 27,000 market price, although the 9.6% gap is illustrative rather than a forecast.

Points against

• Debt/equity of 4.6x leaves limited room for balance-sheet shocks and makes returns more sensitive to financing conditions.
• Three-year operating cash flow to net profit is -4.0x, ranking at the 6.4th percentile versus Vietnamese peers.
• Receivables outside the trade cycle equal 10.5% of assets and rank at the 81.8th percentile versus Vietnamese peers.
• Valuation is demanding on reported metrics: 29.9x P/E, 5.1x P/B and 41.0x EV/EBITDA, while latest revenue growth is 1.2%.

Sector Context

Construction demand and earnings can be affected by project timing, client payment capacity, materials costs and the pace of public and private investment. LIC's revenue increased from VND 2,035.9 bn in 2023 to VND 2,276.4 bn in 2025, but latest year-on-year growth of 1.2% points to subdued near-term expansion. The supplied data do not provide peer operating metrics, so a relative competitive ranking cannot be established.

For a Vietnamese contractor, reported earnings under VAS need to be assessed alongside cash collection and receivables, not just accounting profit. LIC's negative three-year cash conversion and elevated share of receivables outside the trade cycle are notable in this respect. The company is UPCOM-listed; the supplied statutory tests show accumulated losses of 0.6x paid-in capital, no consecutive net-loss years over the stated measure, and no negative equity without minority interest. None of those supplied measures meets the specified numerical tests, and the HOSE/HNX cancellation rule described in the input does not apply to UPCOM.

State ownership is significant at 40.7%, alongside two institutional stakes of 35.0% and 19.2%. State-linked ownership may influence governance and capital allocation, but the supplied information does not establish a payout mandate or the likely direction of any shareholder decision. Foreign ownership room and dividend yield are not provided.

Risk Factors

• High leverage: debt/equity is 4.6x, increasing sensitivity to funding costs, refinancing availability and project delays.
• Weak cash realization: three-year operating cash flow to net profit is -4.0x, ranking at the 6.4th percentile versus Vietnamese peers.
• Receivables risk: receivables outside the trade cycle account for 10.5% of assets and rank at the 81.8th percentile versus Vietnamese peers, creating uncertainty around timing and recoverability.
• Execution and growth risk: revenue grew 1.2% year on year in the latest period, while construction results can be affected by project completion and collection timing.
• Valuation risk: the shares trade at 29.9x P/E and 41.0x EV/EBITDA, leaving reported earnings and cash-flow quality important to sustaining current multiples.
• Ownership concentration: the State Capital Investment Corporation and two institutions together hold 94.9%, which may constrain the influence of minority shareholders.
• Forensic-data limitation: the Beneish M-Score and risk classification are unavailable; the supplied peer percentile and annual change cannot substitute for a full company-specific assessment.

What could change the picture

• Evidence that operating cash flow is recovering relative to net profit would address a key concern, given the three-year cash-conversion ratio of -4.0x.
• A reduction in receivables outside the trade cycle from the current 10.5% of assets could improve confidence in asset recoverability and earnings quality.
• Further net-profit growth beyond VND 81.3 bn in 2025 could support the case that the profit recovery is durable, provided it is accompanied by cash generation.
• Any improvement in revenue growth from the latest 1.2% year-on-year pace could alter expectations for near-term operating momentum.

Forensic Assessment

The Beneish M-Score and its risk classification are null, so the supplied data do not support a company-specific manipulation-risk conclusion. The peer percentile is 71.5 and the score's year-on-year change is 0.8, but neither should be treated as a standalone manipulation signal. More directly, earnings quality is 27.7/100, three-year cash conversion is -4.0x, and receivables outside the trade cycle represent 10.5% of assets, making cash realization and recoverability the principal forensic concerns.

Ownership is concentrated, with three reported holders owning 94.9% in aggregate. The supplied statutory checks show accumulated losses at 0.6x paid-in capital, zero consecutive net-loss years, and no negative equity without minority interest; these measures do not meet the stated thresholds. No director or related-party trade registrations were reported in the 12-month period, which does not establish that no transactions occurred.

Track Record

No historical hit rate or validated track record is supplied for the calibrated estimate. The VND 29,595 calibrated intrinsic value is an illustrative comparison from an earlier back-test version, not a forecast; its 9.6% gap should therefore be treated cautiously and does not establish the likelihood of outperformance.