ISG
Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải biển và Hợp tác lao động Quốc Tế
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 12.524
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 22 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.1926th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.0%4th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 2.86×Statutory test met
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- NegativeStatutory test met
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows several mixed signals: the Beneish M-Score is -1.3549 (82nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers, with a year-over-year change of -2.29) indicating more aggressive accounting than most Vietnamese peers, while the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9 (solid fundamentals). The statements show accumulated losses of 2.86x paid-in capital and negative owner’s equity, and the Altman Z-Score is -0.73 (in the distress zone), while accruals quality scores well (95.7/100) but receivables and margin quality score 0/100.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.3549 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight ratios); this is at the 82nd percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and moved by -2.29 year-over-year (an unusually large trajectory vs prior year).
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 2.2879 (component of Beneish; measures relative growth in receivables to sales), suggesting receivables grew faster than sales in the period used.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.1817 (component of Beneish; measures increases in non-current/non-operating assets or capitalisation that can inflate income), indicating rising asset-quality items relative to peers.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0107 (component of Beneish and accruals measure); while small in absolute terms it feeds into the M-Score and must be interpreted with other signals.
- Altman Z-Score = -0.73 (measures distance to bankruptcy; value in the distress zone), signalling balance-sheet weakness.
- Owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) = negative (a balance-sheet deficiency reported in the audited statements).
- Accumulated losses = 2.86x paid-in capital (explicitly reported; a statutory measure of losses relative to contributed capital).
- Cash conversion (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.19 (26th percentile among Vietnamese non-financial companies), indicating profits have not converted well into operating cash over three years.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100 (these scores measure, respectively, the likelihood that receivables are collectible/in the normal trade cycle and the sustainability/quality of margins).
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9 (measures several fundamentals: profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency; a higher score indicates relatively strong operational/fundamental signals).
- Accruals quality = 95.7/100 (measures the size and direction of accruals relative to assets and earnings; high score suggests low-risk accruals behavior).
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.7198 (component of Beneish; a value <1 indicates gross margins improved relative to the prior period), which helps explain part of the earnings strength captured by the Piotroski score.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.9513 (component of Beneish; <1 indicates sales did not accelerate relative to the prior period, reducing one classic manipulation motive tied to rapid growth).
Ownership is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam (a state-owned maritime corporation) holds 36.0%, and four individuals together hold a further 47.1% (Đào Nguyên Phương 17.0%, Nguyễn Ngọc Minh 14.5%, Nguyễn Vũ 11.4%, Nguyễn Tuấn Anh 5.2%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the supplied data (director deal registrations are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades).
- Compare the 'Receivables, loans and other long-term receivables' lines and related-party note in the FY2025 audited statements to confirm the disclosed 0.0% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify any related-party reclassifications.
- Reconcile the consolidated cash flow from operating activities (3-year sum or per-year line) with consolidated net profit to reproduce the cash conversion ratio of 0.19 and to trace which years and items drive the shortfall.
- Inspect the equity note and retained earnings / accumulated losses schedule in the FY2025 audited statements to confirm 'accumulated losses = 2.86x paid-in capital' and to show the components (prior-year losses, adjustments, reserves) that produced negative owner’s equity.
- Review the related-party transactions, group/company note and any schedules of advances/prepayments to related parties or loans to/from affiliates (VAS disclosures) to check for material balances that could affect receivables, asset quality (AQI), or cash conversion.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- —
- P/S
- 0.22
- ROE
- −23.0%
- ROA
- 6.8%
- EPS
- 4.679
- BVPS
- −17.991
- Gross Margin
- 12.6%
- Net Margin
- 11.3%
- D/E
- —
- Current Ratio
- 0.34
- EV/EBITDA
- 1.10
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 8.8M
- Charter Capital
- 88.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Vận tải Thủy
- Company Type
- CT