Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.291
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
- Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 26 Jul 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2024
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 13.4%84th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 2
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.4412 (92nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers), indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most local peers; the M-Score moved +2.93 year-over-year. Earnings-quality diagnostics are weak (Earnings Quality 14.3/100) driven by very poor cash-conversion, receivables and margin metrics. Balance-sheet distress is mixed: Altman Z-Score 2.36 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (neutral). The published statements show no statutory loss triggers, but the parent entity reported net losses in two consecutive years to FY2024.
- Beneish M-Score = -0.4412 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns); company is at the 92nd percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting relative to VN peers) and the M-Score increased by +2.93 YoY (the trajectory is a secondary signal). Note: the -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated and less applicable in Vietnam.
- DSRI = 3.2362 (Days Sales Receivable Index measures growth in receivables relative to sales — a value >1 suggests receivables are growing faster than revenue; 3.2362 is high and is consistent with receivables growth or sales timing differences).
- SGAI = 4.1891 (Sales, General & Administrative Expenses Index measures rapid change in SG&A relative to sales; >1 indicates SG&A is rising faster than sales; 4.1891 is very elevated).
- GMI = 2.0622 (Gross Margin Index compares gross margin deterioration; >1 indicates worsening margins; 2.0622 suggests material margin pressure).
- TATA = 0.1999 (Total Accruals to Total Assets measures accrual intensity; 0.1999 indicates sizeable accruals relative to assets, consistent with weaker accruals quality — accruals quality subscore 33.4/100).
- Earnings-Quality subcomponents at or near zero: Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Receivables quality = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100 (these measure cash-generation vs profits, collectibility and margin sustainability respectively; all three being zero is concerning for earnings convertibility and revenue quality).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 13.4% of total assets (84th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). The company reports prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables in this bucket — a large proportion relative to assets that can distort operating-working-capital signals.
- Net loss (parent profit) in two consecutive years up to FY2024 (a factual result in the audited statements).
- AQI = 0.3558 (Asset Quality Index measures the proportion of non-current assets and other potentially discretionary items; values <1 can indicate lower asset-quality deterioration — here AQI is below 1).
- DEPI = 0.8246 (Depreciation Index <1 suggests depreciation expense has risen relative to prior period book values, not a deferred-depreciation signal).
- LVGI = 0.8805 (Leverage Index <1 indicates relative leverage has not increased versus prior year; it suggests leverage is not worsening).
- SGI = 0.1875 (Sales Growth Index well below 1 indicates sales are not rapidly increasing; low SGI reduces some manipulation pressure that often accompanies very rapid top-line growth).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures nine fundamentals; a middling score indicates neutral operating/fundamental signals rather than clear financial deterioration).
- No statutory loss test (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e), amended) was met in the audited annual statements (this is an explicit filing outcome).
- Owner's equity excluding minority interest is positive and there are no accumulated losses (undistributed earnings are not negative) — both are factual balance-sheet strengths in the published statements.
Shareholding is concentrated: three institutional/individual blocks together control a large portion (Công ty TNHH MTV Nhà Xuất Bản Giáo Dục Việt Nam 21.0%, Mya Capital 18.0%, Đỗ Thị Thu Trang 18.0%), with two additional individuals at 10.2% and 9.4%. Director-deal registrations over the past year show 0 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration (one trader registered, one registration without volume) — these are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2024 schedule or note for receivables and prepayments to suppliers with the related-party/loans receivable note to confirm composition of the 13.4% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile total accruals / profit in the cash-flow statement and the notes to arrive at the TATA figure (Total Accruals to Total Assets = 0.1999) and inspect the components driving accruals in the notes (provisions, deferred revenue, other non-cash adjustments).
- Review the revenue and accounts-receivable ageing/disclosure to assess the drivers behind DSRI = 3.2362 and the Receivables quality = 0.0/100 (check for long-dated receivables, related-party receivables or reclassifications).
- Check the parent company profit/loss line and the statutory-workpaper disclosures for FY2023–FY2024 to confirm the two consecutive years of net loss at the parent and the absence of any statutory loss triggers in the auditor’s report or the notes (the published statements meet none of the statutory loss tests).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- —
- P/S
- —
- ROE
- 0.0%
- ROA
- 0.0%
- Gross Margin
- 0.0%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- —
- Current Ratio
- 0.00
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 1.8M
- Charter Capital
- 17.6B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Truyền thông
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Truyền thông
- Sub-industry
- Sách, ấn bản & sản phẩm văn hóa
- Company Type
- CT