Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 7.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 8.465
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.9543rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.8%33rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.5043 (80th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.36, indicating accounting metrics have become more aggressive relative to peers recently; key M-Score components showing stress include DSRI 1.3682 and GMI 1.5587. Earnings-quality measures are weak overall (20.5/100) driven by cash conversion, receivables and revenue-quality scores at 0/100, while Altman Z-Score 1.84 places the company in the grey zone for bankruptcy distance and the Piotroski F-Score is neutral at 4/9.
- Beneish M-Score -1.5043 (80th percentile vs VN peers; YoY change +1.36): the M-Score measures likelihood of earnings manipulation signals; this company scores higher (more aggressive) than 80% of Vietnamese peers and has moved toward more aggressive signals year-over-year.
- DSRI = 1.3682: days' sales receivables index >1 suggests receivables or revenue timing changes relative to sales.
- GMI = 1.5587: gross margin index >1 indicates deterioration in gross margins year-over-year, which can motivate earnings management.
- AQI = 1.4153 and DEPI = 1.1424: accruals quality and depreciation index above 1 point to possible accrual or depreciation policy shifts affecting earnings recognition.
- TATA = 0.0885 (total accruals to total assets): non-trivial accruals relative to assets, consistent with low cash conversion and earnings-quality concerns.
- Earnings-Quality Score 20.5/100 with Cash conversion 0/100 and Receivables quality 0/100: operating cash generation relative to reported profit is weak and receivables-related indicators score poorly.
- Revenue quality 0/100 and Margin quality 10.8/100: revenue and margin metrics offer little support that reported profits are backed by sustainable operating performance.
- Altman Z-Score 1.84 (grey zone): distance to default is limited compared with healthier firms, indicating financial fragility relative to stronger Z-Scores.
- SGI = 0.7177: sales growth index below 1 shows the company is not inflating growth via aggressive recognition—sales actually decelerated, reducing some pressure to manage upward.
- LVGI = 1.0617: leverage growth index is only modestly above 1, indicating leverage has not expanded dramatically in the most recent period.
- Accrued losses and statutory tests: no accumulated losses, owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive, and the parent reported zero net-loss years up to FY2025 — these are accounting facts that reduce immediate statutory distress signals under Vietnamese rules.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9: while neutral, it does not indicate outright deterioration across the nine fundamental tests.
Ownership is extremely concentrated: Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Đắk Lắk (a state owner) holds 98.9% of shares, with negligible free float among named individuals. This high state ownership implies significant control and potential for related-party transactions, consistent with Vietnamese group and state-entity reporting patterns.
- Compare operating cash flow to net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and the management discussion for FY2023–FY2025 to corroborate the 3-year cash conversion ratio of 0.95 (43rd percentile).
- Inspect the notes on receivables, prepayments and loans receivable (including related-party schedules) to verify the 0.8% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify the counterparties and maturities.
- Review the fixed-asset and depreciation notes to see policies and recoverability tests that relate to DEPI = 1.1424 and AQI = 1.4153.
- Examine the related-party transactions note and the statement of changes in equity for disclosures consistent with the large state shareholder and any intra-group balances or guarantees.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.69
- P/S
- 1.43
- ROE
- 11.2%
- ROA
- 7.3%
- EPS
- 1.221
- BVPS
- 11.257
- Gross Margin
- 15.9%
- Net Margin
- 22.4%
- D/E
- 0.23
- Current Ratio
- 1.36
- Rev Growth
- −28.1%
- Profit Growth
- +148.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.58
- Div Yield
- 4.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 156M
- Charter Capital
- 1,558B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Nhựa, cao su & sợi
- Company Type
- CT