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Công ty Cổ phần Cà phê Thắng Lợi

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngUPCOMCT
19.600
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+11.9%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
19.600
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
21.925

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
63.87%
+
Kd(1-t)
3.71%
x
D/(D+E)
36.13%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→20.80B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→19.600
Calibrated value vs last close→+11.9%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
21.925
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow20.8 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
8.0%22.88722.88722.88722.88722.887
9.0%21.97121.97121.97121.97121.971
10.0%21.92521.92521.92521.92521.925
11.0%21.92521.92521.92521.92521.925
12.0%20.93521.92521.92521.92521.925
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·261182217141112138·8181595412093
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·770.7110.6·5320.20.53
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·9112563535346·414240277262
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·52824231914·161010.725
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.40.32221·0.220.020.10.23
Net Inventories
·10442128633776·182416244320
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·10442128633780·192416254520
Other current assets
·70.211.011·120.7132
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000·00000.10.2
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·876162697279·798594899378
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·543635374140·666679737559
Tangible fixed assets
·543635374140·666673666752
Intagible fixed assets
·0.10.20.30.40.030.04·007777
Investment in properties
·101213151618·000000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·000006·000022
Investments in associate companies
·000000·000022
Other non-current assets
·91010111313·121415161717
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·91010111313·121415161717
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·348243279210184217·160165154143214171
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·14557140755089·303924189154
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·12656138734887·303923179053
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·9923124472667·06545830
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·315,5500.100.010.08920,3530.01·920,0000.20.000.0100.00
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·190.82222·002110.8
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·1600000·000000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·203186139135134128·131127130125122117
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·203186139135134128·131127130125122117
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·127127127127127127·131127130125122106
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·59127720·0000011
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·17475162·0000.060.060.06
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·348243279210184217·160165154143214171
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·127127127127127127·131127130125122106

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
2
Poor
Accrual Quality
6
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 3.37 · 98th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +9.24
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
4.814
GMI
2.287
AQI
0.917
SGI
1.294
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.804
TATA
0.352
LVGI
1.765

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.0222nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.1%10th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows strong forensic-accounting signals of aggressive accounting by Vietnamese standards: a Beneish M-Score of 3.3693 (98th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +9.24. Earnings-quality metrics are very weak (Earnings Quality 1.6/100) while leverage and receivables/sales signals (LVGI 1.7648; DSRI 4.8137) and a low Piotroski F-Score (2/9) add concern; however, receivables outside the trade cycle are small (0.1% of assets) and there are no accumulated losses on the balance sheet.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 3.3693 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight ratios) — the company's score sits at the 98th percentile among Vietnamese peers, indicating far more aggressive accounting indicators than most local companies.
  • Year-over-year M-Score change +9.24 (measures the trajectory of the manipulation signal) — a large increase year-over-year, which is a secondary cue that accounting indicators have recently shifted.
  • DSRI 4.8137 (days-sales-in-receivables index; measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales) — this very high value suggests receivables or revenue recognition have expanded much faster than sales.
  • GMI 2.2875 (gross margin index; measures deterioration in gross margins) — >1 indicates gross margins have worsened, which can create pressure to manage earnings.
  • LVGI 1.7648 (leverage index; measures growth in leverage) — >1 shows rising leverage, which can incentivize earnings management.
  • TATA 0.3523 (total accruals to total assets; measures the magnitude of accruals) — positive accruals of 35.23% of assets indicate earnings include sizeable accrual components.
  • Earnings Quality score 1.6/100 with several sub-scores at 0/100 (cash conversion 0/100; receivables quality 0/100; margin and revenue quality 0/100) — these figures measure cash-flow and component quality of reported profits and show that reported profits are not supported by high-quality cash flow or revenue drivers.
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9 (measures nine fundamental health signals) — a low score indicates weak operating and balance-sheet fundamentals.
  • Altman Z-Score 2.92 (measures distance to bankruptcy) in the grey zone — indicates an intermediate level of financial stress rather than clear safety.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.02 (22nd percentile among VN non-financials) — profits are not converting to operating cash flow, which is a concern for earnings quality.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.1% of total assets (10th percentile) — measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; the absolute level is very small, which reduces concerns about off-cycle receivable buildup.
  • DEPI 1.0000 (depreciation index; measures changes in depreciation policy) — at 1.0, this suggests no evident change in depreciation rates that would artificially inflate profit.
  • Accumulated losses: none — undistributed earnings are positive, a straightforward balance-sheet fact.
  • No parent-level net loss in the last three years (0 consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025) — the company has not reported parent-company net losses in the period under review.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: an individual, Phạm Thị Linh, holds 53.4% and the Đắk Lắk provincial government holds 36.0%. This combination gives clear dominant control by a single individual together with a substantial state stake, which can influence related-party flows, intra-group transactions and governance outcomes.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the notes to the financial statements showing trade receivables, loans to related parties and prepayments with the revenue and receivables lines to reconcile the components behind DSRI = 4.8137.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow in the cash-flow statement to reported net profit and the TATA calculation (total accruals / total assets = 0.3523) to see which accrual items drive the gap between profit and cash.
  • Review the related-party/other receivables schedules and the 'long-term receivables' note to verify the 0.1% of assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Check the auditors' report and the accounting-policy disclosures for depreciation (DEPI = 1.0000) and any changes in revenue recognition policies that could explain the sudden M-Score shift (+9.24).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.92
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.24
Negative
Composite
43
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.11×Op. Margin0.05×Turnover1.09×Leverage1.71=ROE8.5%
Price Risk
Momentum
−38.4%
Volatility
85.3%
Max Drawdown
−46.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
14.31P/E
P/B
1.22
P/S
0.65
ROE
8.9%
ROA
5.9%
EPS
1.370
BVPS
16.066
Gross Margin
10.3%
Net Margin
4.6%
D/E
0.57
Current Ratio
2.07
Rev Growth
+29.7%
Profit Growth
−61.8%
EV/EBITDA
9.40
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
12.7M
Charter Capital
127B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Đồ uống & giải khát
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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