Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 4.269
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 25 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.7%30th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.87×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 9Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting signals show elevated aggressive-accounting indicators versus Vietnamese peers (Beneish M‑Score -1.404; 81st percentile among VN peers) with a notable year‑over‑year deterioration (+2.79). Profitability and cash metrics are weak: Altman Z‑Score -1.74 (distress zone) and an Earnings‑Quality score of 39.7/100, driven by very poor receivables and revenue quality.
- Beneish M‑Score -1.404 (81st percentile versus Vietnamese peers). The M‑Score measures statistical likelihood of earnings manipulation features; this company is in the top quintile of aggressive accounting signals among Vietnamese listed peers. The M‑Score moved up by +2.79 year‑over‑year, indicating a material shift in the accounting pattern over the last year.
- DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.5834. DSRI measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales (a value >1 suggests receivables growing disproportionately).
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 3.5673. GMI >1 indicates gross margins deteriorated year over year (this is a strong deterioration signal here).
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1503. LVGI >1 shows leverage increased relative to assets and sales, consistent with rising balance‑sheet risk.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.1384. A negative TATA indicates large negative accruals (cash flows exceeding earnings) in the year measured; it is one of the Beneish components affecting the composite score.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 in the Earnings Quality breakdown. These scores indicate major weaknesses in how revenues and receivables appear to convert into reliable cash or meet quality tests used in the scoring.
- Cash conversion (part of Earnings Quality) = 24.0/100. This low score shows poor conversion of accounting profit into operating cash flow.
- Earnings pattern: net loss at the parent in 9 consecutive years up to FY2025 and the audited statements show losses in each of the latest 3 years (relevant to statutory loss tests).
- Accumulated losses = 0.87x paid‑in capital. This shows cumulative losses are large relative to contributed capital (87% of paid‑in capital).
- Altman Z‑Score = -1.74 (distress zone). The Altman Z‑Score is a multi‑factor score intended to signal bankruptcy distance; a negative value in the distress zone indicates low distance from historical bankruptcy profiles.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100. This subscore indicates reported accruals in the income statement are internally consistent and do not, by this metric, suggest large abnormal accrual distortions in the measured period.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 5/9 (neutral). The F‑Score assesses nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 5 suggests mixed fundamentals rather than a clear deterioration or clear improvement.
- Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive. Despite accumulated losses, the parent equity base remains positive on the balance sheet.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin index) = 0.3315. SGAI <1 implies SGA expense did not grow faster than sales (or fell relative to sales) in the period measured.
Ownership is highly concentrated: three individuals each hold 24.9% (totaling 74.7% between them), and a state shareholder (Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Đắk Lắk) holds 20.2%. This structure implies control is concentrated among a few large insiders and a provincial-state owner; director‑deal registrations were not provided (note that any registrations recorded with the exchange would be declarations of intent rather than executed trades).
- Compare the year‑over‑year change in trade receivables and note disclosures for 'prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables' to reconcile the DSRI (1.5834) with the receivables‑outside‑trade‑cycle figure (0.7% of total assets).
- Review the revenue recognition note and the schedule of related‑party transactions to understand the drivers of Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and the low Revenue and Receivables quality subscores.
- Reconcile cash flow from operations to net income in the cash‑flow statement and the notes to verify the Cash conversion score (24.0/100) and the TATA figure (‑0.1384).
- Examine the audited statement lines and auditor's report showing losses in each of the latest 3 years, and verify the accumulated losses equal 0.87x paid‑in capital and the nine consecutive years of parent net losses through FY2025.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 3.36
- P/S
- 4.34
- ROE
- −27.6%
- ROA
- −10.1%
- EPS
- −420
- BVPS
- 1.310
- Gross Margin
- 6.2%
- Net Margin
- −41.4%
- D/E
- 1.10
- Current Ratio
- 0.46
- Rev Growth
- −19.7%
- Profit Growth
- +66.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 14.76
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 23.6M
- Charter Capital
- 236B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bia và đồ uống
- Sub-industry
- Đồ uống & giải khát
- Company Type
- CT