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X20

Công ty Cổ phần X20

VietnamCyclicalsHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngHàng cá nhânHNXCT
10.400
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+23.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
10.400
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
12.823

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng May mặc→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Hàng May mặc” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→54.29B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→10.400
Calibrated value vs last close→+23.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
12.823
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA54.3 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·406499381345386293263684594465621
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·133231561111275827357624145
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·260.40.350000000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·102759250443367347249204244
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·32020.31221983834
Net Inventories
·142178220172206194164301269234231
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·144181227180220208165301269239237
Other current assets
·4141489840.50.630.2
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·193190209207220235265262258226189
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.000000000000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.000000000000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·174172195191214228253225211194135
Tangible fixed assets
·162161183180203223248219206189132
Intagible fixed assets
·1111111112555552
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·44333322222
Investments in associate companies
·44333322222
Other non-current assets
·13131012241045813
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·1313911121045813
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·599689590552606528528946852692810
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·307399331296351281291690592431549
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·295381327293337272280689591431549
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·330042184128243191300
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.6294561611012270.90.35
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·121833139121.01.00.50.5
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·81000128110000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·292290259257255247237256260260261
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·292290259257255247237256260260261
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·173173173173173173173173173173173
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·8770686458575757575551
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·324719202518826313337
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·599689590552606528528946852692810
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·173173173173173173173173173173173

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
24
Poor
Accrual Quality
64
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
51
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.52 · 79th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.02
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.583
GMI
1.029
AQI
1.181
SGI
0.857
DEPI
1.057
SGAI
1.011
TATA
0.090
LVGI
0.888

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.3960th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.5%25th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.5187 (79th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.02, signalling that its accounting metrics are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved toward greater aggressiveness over the last year. Earnings-quality component scores are weak in cash conversion, receivables and revenue (each 0.0/100), while accruals quality is middling (63.8/100) and TATA is low at 0.0905; the Altman Z-Score is 2.91 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.5187 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight ratios); this is above the US -1.78 cutoff and sits at the 79th percentile among Vietnamese peers, meaning this company shows more aggressive accounting signals than ~79% of local non-financial firms.
  • Year-over-year change in M-Score = +2.02 (measures directional change in the composite score); a large positive jump indicates accounting signals moved toward greater aggressiveness versus the prior year.
  • DSRI = 1.5825 (days-sales-in-receivables index; measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales): >1.0 suggests receivables grew disproportionately to sales in the period measured.
  • AQI = 1.1807 (asset quality index; measures shift into less-depreciable or hard-to-value assets): >1.0 indicates an increase in higher-risk or capitalized assets relative to total assets.
  • DEPI = 1.0572 (depreciation index; measures a slowdown in depreciation expense relative to prior period): >1.0 suggests depreciation expense fell relative to depreciation base, which can inflate profit.
  • TATA = 0.0905 (total accruals to total assets; measures accruals magnitude): positive and non-trivial accruals (9.05% of assets) mean reported earnings include material accrual components rather than cash earnings.
  • Earnings-quality sub-scores very weak: Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these measure, respectively, the conversion of reported profit to operating cash flow over three years, the quality/normality of receivables, and the likelihood revenue is sustainable).
Positive Signals
  • SGI = 0.8569 (sales growth index <1.0; measures sales growth relative to prior year): below 1 suggests sales did not accelerate; slower top-line growth reduces one common motive for aggressive recognition to hit growth targets.
  • GMI = 1.0288 (gross margin index; measures deterioration in gross margin): only a slight worsening (GMI ~1.03), not a large collapse in margins that often precedes aggressive accounting.
  • LVGI = 0.8876 (leverage index <1.0; measures whether leverage decreased): <1 indicates leverage fell year-over-year, which lessens immediate balance-sheet distress pressure.
  • Accruals quality = 63.8/100 (moderate): suggests accruals are not extremely poor when assessed by the accruals-quality model.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.5% of total assets (25th percentile): a low proportion of receivables outside the trading cycle (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables) relative to peers reduces concern about off-cycle receivables.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Bộ Quốc Phòng (state) holds 71.7%, with no material stakes from the named individuals (each listed at 0.0%) and a small institutional holder at 2.9%. No director-deal registrations were provided in the input (registrations, when present, are intentions filed with the exchange).

To check in the filings
  • Compare FY2025 and FY2024 notes: reconcile the change in 'Receivables' and the DSRI components (days sales, allowance movements) to the DSRI = 1.5825 signal.
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and depreciation policies / estimates to assess DEPI = 1.0572 and AQI = 1.1807 (look for increases in capitalized costs or slower depreciation rates).
  • Reconcile operating cash-flow to net profit across the last three years in the cash-flow statement and cash-flow note to verify the reported three-year cash conversion ratio = 1.39.
  • Check related-party disclosures and the schedule of loans/advances to see whether the 0.5% of assets categorised as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' are prepayments, related-party loans, or other long-term receivables.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.91
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.33
Negative
Composite
80
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.78×Interest Burden1.03×Op. Margin0.04×Turnover1.86×Leverage2.05=ROE11.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
−6.1%
Volatility
28.8%
Max Drawdown
−14.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.16P/E
P/B
0.61
P/S
0.16
ROE
11.9%
ROA
5.4%
EPS
2.014
BVPS
16.934
Gross Margin
17.9%
Net Margin
3.1%
D/E
0.04
Current Ratio
1.38
Rev Growth
−14.3%
Profit Growth
−23.1%
EV/EBITDA
0.44
Div Yield
9.6%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
17.3M
Charter Capital
173B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng cá nhân
Sub-industry
Hàng May mặc
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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