Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 12.823
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.3960th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.5%25th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.5187 (79th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.02, signalling that its accounting metrics are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved toward greater aggressiveness over the last year. Earnings-quality component scores are weak in cash conversion, receivables and revenue (each 0.0/100), while accruals quality is middling (63.8/100) and TATA is low at 0.0905; the Altman Z-Score is 2.91 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.5187 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight ratios); this is above the US -1.78 cutoff and sits at the 79th percentile among Vietnamese peers, meaning this company shows more aggressive accounting signals than ~79% of local non-financial firms.
- Year-over-year change in M-Score = +2.02 (measures directional change in the composite score); a large positive jump indicates accounting signals moved toward greater aggressiveness versus the prior year.
- DSRI = 1.5825 (days-sales-in-receivables index; measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales): >1.0 suggests receivables grew disproportionately to sales in the period measured.
- AQI = 1.1807 (asset quality index; measures shift into less-depreciable or hard-to-value assets): >1.0 indicates an increase in higher-risk or capitalized assets relative to total assets.
- DEPI = 1.0572 (depreciation index; measures a slowdown in depreciation expense relative to prior period): >1.0 suggests depreciation expense fell relative to depreciation base, which can inflate profit.
- TATA = 0.0905 (total accruals to total assets; measures accruals magnitude): positive and non-trivial accruals (9.05% of assets) mean reported earnings include material accrual components rather than cash earnings.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores very weak: Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these measure, respectively, the conversion of reported profit to operating cash flow over three years, the quality/normality of receivables, and the likelihood revenue is sustainable).
- SGI = 0.8569 (sales growth index <1.0; measures sales growth relative to prior year): below 1 suggests sales did not accelerate; slower top-line growth reduces one common motive for aggressive recognition to hit growth targets.
- GMI = 1.0288 (gross margin index; measures deterioration in gross margin): only a slight worsening (GMI ~1.03), not a large collapse in margins that often precedes aggressive accounting.
- LVGI = 0.8876 (leverage index <1.0; measures whether leverage decreased): <1 indicates leverage fell year-over-year, which lessens immediate balance-sheet distress pressure.
- Accruals quality = 63.8/100 (moderate): suggests accruals are not extremely poor when assessed by the accruals-quality model.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.5% of total assets (25th percentile): a low proportion of receivables outside the trading cycle (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables) relative to peers reduces concern about off-cycle receivables.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Bộ Quốc Phòng (state) holds 71.7%, with no material stakes from the named individuals (each listed at 0.0%) and a small institutional holder at 2.9%. No director-deal registrations were provided in the input (registrations, when present, are intentions filed with the exchange).
- Compare FY2025 and FY2024 notes: reconcile the change in 'Receivables' and the DSRI components (days sales, allowance movements) to the DSRI = 1.5825 signal.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and depreciation policies / estimates to assess DEPI = 1.0572 and AQI = 1.1807 (look for increases in capitalized costs or slower depreciation rates).
- Reconcile operating cash-flow to net profit across the last three years in the cash-flow statement and cash-flow note to verify the reported three-year cash conversion ratio = 1.39.
- Check related-party disclosures and the schedule of loans/advances to see whether the 0.5% of assets categorised as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' are prepayments, related-party loans, or other long-term receivables.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.61
- P/S
- 0.16
- ROE
- 11.9%
- ROA
- 5.4%
- EPS
- 2.014
- BVPS
- 16.934
- Gross Margin
- 17.9%
- Net Margin
- 3.1%
- D/E
- 0.04
- Current Ratio
- 1.38
- Rev Growth
- −14.3%
- Profit Growth
- −23.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 0.44
- Div Yield
- 9.6%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 17.3M
- Charter Capital
- 173B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT