Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 25.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 27.131
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 18 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.1525th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.9%34th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.9611 (88th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.80, indicating its accounting profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially this year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 15.2/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables quality (0.0/100), while the Altman Z-Score of 2.95 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance and the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 shows neutral fundamentals.
- Beneish M-Score -0.9611 (88th percentile vs Vietnamese peers): measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight ratios; the company ranks high (more aggressive accounting) among Vietnamese peers and the M-Score rose by +1.80 year-over-year, signalling a material change in accounting signals.
- DSRI 1.5029: Days Sales Receivable Index above 1.0 measures growth in receivables relative to sales — this suggests receivables or revenue recognition have grown faster than sales, which can signal revenue recognition pressure.
- TATA (Total Accruals) 0.2170: measures accruals relative to total assets — a positive 21.7% indicates sizeable accruals, consistent with low cash conversion and potential earnings not supported by cash.
- Earnings Quality 15.2/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100: these scores measure how much reported profit converts to cash and the composition/timing of receivables; both effectively zero indicate that reported profits have not produced operating cash and receivables may be non-standard or timing-shifted.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) 0.15 (24th percentile): over three years only 15% of reported profit has converted into operating cash flow, low relative to peers and consistent with the low cash-conversion score.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle 0.9% of total assets (34th percentile): measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables — non-trade receivables are present and not trivial in size for the peer group, which can complicate revenue/asset quality assessment.
- GMI 0.9618: Gross Margin Index below 1.0 measures that gross margin has not deteriorated year-over-year (values <1 suggest improving gross margins), which can be a stabilising factor for earnings quality.
- SGAI 0.7489: Sales, General & Administrative expenses Index below 1.0 indicates SGA expense growth has been slower than sales, a sign of operating leverage rather than expense inflation.
- DEPI 1.0000 and LVGI 0.9541: Depreciation Index near 1.0 (DEPI) and low long-term growth in gross margin volatility (LVGI <1) indicate no large, obvious changes in depreciation policy or asset-life manipulation in the reported ratios.
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive; and zero consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025: statutory-accounting results show retained earnings positive and the parent company profitable in the latest year(s), which meet standard balance-sheet health indicators.
The ownership is concentrated: Bộ Quốc Phòng (state) holds 51.0% controlling ownership. The next-largest holders are individuals (2.7%, 2.7%, 2.5%, 1.4%). This state majority stake implies strategic or non-market objectives may influence accounting or related-party activity; no director-deal registrations were provided in the data, and no group/affiliate listing structure was supplied for further context.
- Compare the company’s FY2025 operating cash flow and the notes to the cash-flow statement with the profit-and-loss note to reconcile why three-year cash conversion is only 0.15.
- Inspect the receivables and other receivables schedules (notes to trade receivables, loans and prepayments) to quantify the 0.9% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparties and related-party disclosures.
- Review the accruals and provisions line and its explanatory note to understand the components contributing to TATA = 0.2170 (total accruals / total assets).
- Check the revenue recognition policies and the turnover details (sales by segment/customer) disclosed in the revenue note to assess drivers of DSRI = 1.5029 and whether growth in receivables is concentrated in particular customers or related parties.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.74
- P/S
- 0.22
- ROE
- 22.5%
- ROA
- 10.3%
- EPS
- 7.481
- BVPS
- 33.934
- Gross Margin
- 10.3%
- Net Margin
- 6.5%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.43
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.62
- Div Yield
- 8.8%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 6.8M
- Charter Capital
- 68.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Giầy dép
- Company Type
- CT