VSN
Công ty Cổ phần Việt Nam Kỹ Nghệ Súc Sản
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 15.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 16.779
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.0621st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.8%31st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.6473 (76th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.40, indicating its accounting signals are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved toward greater aggressiveness this year. Key governance and financial-quality measures are mixed: Altman Z-Score is 3.87 (in the ‘safe’ zone for bankruptcy distance), Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral), while the Earnings-Quality composite is low at 34.1/100 driven by very weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and low receivables quality (24.9/100). The company reports no accumulated losses and owner’s equity is positive; it is listed on UPCoM (so the HOSE/HNX statutory loss delisting test does not apply).
- Beneish M-Score -1.6473 (76th percentile vs VN peers): the absolute score is above the US -1.78 threshold but that cutoff is US-calibrated; the company ranks more aggressive than 76% of Vietnamese peers and the M-Score rose by +1.40 year-over-year (the trajectory is a secondary signal).
- DSRI = 1.1754: the days-sales-in-receivables index above 1.0 suggests receivables (or revenue recognition relative to sales) have grown faster than sales year-over-year.
- AQI = 1.0512: the asset quality index above 1.0 indicates a shift toward less-conservative asset composition (more receivables, intangibles, or capitalized items) relative to total assets.
- TATA = 0.1351: total accruals to assets of 13.51% indicate a material level of accrual-based earnings relative to assets (contributes to low cash conversion).
- Earnings-Quality Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and three-year operating-cash-flow / net-profit = -0.06 (21st percentile): reported profit has not converted into operating cash over three years, a liquidity/quality concern.
- Receivables quality = 24.9/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.8% of assets (31st percentile): receivable-type balances outside normal trade (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables) exist and receivables quality scores poorly.
- Altman Z-Score = 3.87: places the company in the bankruptcy 'safe' zone using the Altman model, indicating distance from default in that metric.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9: a neutral score showing neither distinctly strong nor weak operating/fundamental signals on nine binary tests.
- Revenue quality = 62.0/100 and SGI = 0.9312: revenue-quality scoring is modestly positive and sales growth index below 1.0 indicates no rapid top-line acceleration that can sometimes accompany aggressive recognition.
- No accumulated losses; parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive: the statutory balance-sheet measures show no historical retained-loss issue.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Thương Mại Sài Gòn holds 67.8% and Masan MEATLife holds 24.9% (combined ~92.7% institutional control). This indicates dominant shareholder control and close group/strategic influence; no director-deal registrations were provided in the data supplied.
- Compare the movements in 'Trade and other receivables' and any 'Loans to/from related parties' notes between FY2023–FY2025 to explain DSRI = 1.1754 and receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.8% of assets.
- Reconcile the 'Cash flows from operating activities' line with 'Profit for the year' over the past three years to investigate the -0.06 three-year operating-CFO / net-profit ratio and the reported TATA = 0.1351.
- Review the accounting-policy note for capitalization and asset classification to understand the AQI = 1.0512 (what items drove the rise in asset-quality index: intangibles, advances, construction in progress, etc.).
- Check the related-party schedules and 'Transactions with parent/major shareholders' disclosures given the concentrated ownership (67.8% and 24.9%) for any large prepayments, loans, or guarantees.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.95
- P/S
- 0.42
- ROE
- 6.4%
- ROA
- 4.2%
- EPS
- 1.014
- BVPS
- 15.783
- Gross Margin
- 22.8%
- Net Margin
- 2.8%
- D/E
- 0.10
- Current Ratio
- 2.58
- Rev Growth
- −6.5%
- Profit Growth
- −26.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.55
- Div Yield
- 3.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 80.9M
- Charter Capital
- 809B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Thực phẩm
- Company Type
- CT