AGX
Công ty Cổ phần Thực phẩm Nông sản Xuất khẩu Sài Gòn
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 130.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 151.801
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.8138th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.8%31st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting signals are mixed. The Beneish M-Score is -1.5459 (79th percentile vs Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +0.38) indicating relatively more aggressive accounting metrics versus peers but below the US -1.78 cutoff; earnings-quality components show an elevated AQI (1.4935) and inventory/receivables signals (DSRI 1.0725, DEPI 1.2539) while total accruals (TATA 0.0673) are small. Fundamental-health indicators are strong: Altman Z-Score 12.14 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score 7/9.
- Beneish M-Score -1.5459 (79th percentile among Vietnamese peers; higher values indicate more aggressive accounting relative to peers). The M-Score rose by +0.38 year-over-year, showing a material movement in the metric compared with the prior year.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.4935. AQI higher than 1 suggests increased non-current asset or non-standard asset balances (prepayments, long-term receivables, capitalized items) relative to sales.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.2539. DEPI > 1 indicates depreciation expense has fallen relative to prior-year implied depreciation (a sign that useful lives or depreciation methods/assumptions may have changed or that asset mix changed).
- DSRI (Days' Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.0725. DSRI > 1 signals receivables grew faster than sales in the year, which can indicate looser credit terms or timing differences.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.2676. Rapid sales growth (SGI >1) can make earnings quality comparisons harder and can correlate with some aggressive accounting choices.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.81 (38th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). A ratio below 1 means reported profits have not fully converted into operating cash over the three-year window.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.8% of total assets (30th percentile). Although small in absolute terms, the company ranks low versus peers on this check, suggesting some off-cycle receivables/prepayments exist.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0673. While not large, positive accruals show profits are supported in part by accrual accounting rather than cash.
- Altman Z-Score = 12.14. This places the company in the 'safe' zone for bankruptcy distance by the Altman model.
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9. A score of 7 indicates generally strong financial fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity improvements, operating efficiency).
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 0.7213 (SGAI < 1). This indicates S,G&A expenses fell relative to sales, which can reflect operating leverage or cost control rather than accrual manipulation.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.7414 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9109. LVGI < 1 indicates leverage declined year-over-year; GMI < 1 indicates gross margins improved or did not deteriorate, both supportive of healthier fundamentals.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (ex-minority) positive; parent net loss count = 0 years to FY2025. These statutory statement facts show retained earnings and equity are positive and there were no parent-level net losses in the window reported.
Shareholding is highly concentrated among institutions: Công ty TNHH Phát Triển VF 24.5%, Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại An Long 23.0%, Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại Sg 19.1%, Tổng Công ty Thương Mại Sài Gòn 18.3% — these four institutions together hold ~85% of shares; an individual, Lê Ngọc Khoa, holds 5.8%. Director-deal disclosures show 0 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration (one registrant, one registration without a volume) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30. Concentrated institutional ownership and limited insider sale registrations are notable governance facts to record.
- Compare the FY2025 note/schedule for 'long-term receivables' and 'prepayments to suppliers' to the 0.8% of total assets figure labeled 'receivables outside the trade cycle' to identify the line items behind AQI and the 0.8% metric.
- Review the fixed-asset and depreciation note for FY2025 for changes in useful lives, depreciation methods or large asset revaluations to explain DEPI = 1.2539.
- Reconcile sales, trade receivables and allowance-for-doubtful-accounts movements in the receivables aging and revenue note to investigate DSRI = 1.0725 and the 3-year cash conversion ratio (0.81).
- Inspect the cash-flow statement (operating cash flows) and the reconciliation of profit to cash from operations for the three-year period used to compute cash conversion = 0.81 to see timing or non-cash drivers of profit.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.90
- P/S
- 0.71
- ROE
- 39.9%
- ROA
- 36.0%
- EPS
- 48.433
- BVPS
- 144.186
- Gross Margin
- 33.0%
- Net Margin
- 26.3%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 9.94
- EV/EBITDA
- 0.97
- Div Yield
- 1.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 10.8M
- Charter Capital
- 108B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bán lẻ
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Phân phối thực phẩm & dược phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Phân phối thực phẩm
- Company Type
- CT