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AGX

Công ty Cổ phần Thực phẩm Nông sản Xuất khẩu Sài Gòn

VietnamConsumerBán lẻPhân phối thực phẩm & dược phẩmUPCOMCT
130.000
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
130.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
151.801

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bán lẻ→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Bán lẻ” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.10%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend11.43%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→197.18B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→130.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
151.801
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.10%
Growth rate11.43%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow197.2 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth8.4%9.9%11.4%12.9%14.4%
9.1%159.625162.238164.813164.813164.813
10.1%159.625159.625159.625162.238162.238
11.1%151.801159.625159.625159.625159.625
12.1%151.801151.801151.801159.625159.625
13.1%151.801151.801151.801151.801151.801
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,3861,015632524435340271271292162188159167
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·8820111059262463495455451221
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·7343842772111891327910213630738176
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·213157112123927049502926263322
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·12158797270.82272
Net Inventories
·23121310010811010065606044352740
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·23121410010911110165606044352740
Other current assets
·12060332317141411137968
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.80.2
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·316187195218228233231179164239190176174
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.4000000000000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.4000000000000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·14810711013614713561676463737871
Tangible fixed assets
·14710610913414513359676363583633
Intagible fixed assets
·21122210.20.20.3143132
Investment in properties
·42444648505357606687928186
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·93141414141414141472141414
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·14141414141414141414141414
Other non-current assets
·141620151075447333
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·141620151075447333
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,7011,201827742662574502451456401378335341
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·14413989124171137102738567624866
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1391338312016513096667860554360
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·000488272209900011
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·5125394536410.97
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·5664766777756
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·1,5571,063738618491437400378371334316287274
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,5571,063738618491437400378371334316287274
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·1081081081081081081081081081081089090
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·18181818181818181818181010
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1,325831506386259205168146140102855542
Minority Interest
·000000000000.040.04
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,7011,201827742662574502451456401378335341
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·1081081081081081081081081081081089090
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·0.10.050.060.060.050.040.040.040.040.040.0400

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
64
Fair
Accrual Quality
73
Cash Conversion
63
Receivables
61
Margin Stability
57

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.55 · 79th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.38
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.072
GMI
0.911
AQI
1.493
SGI
1.268
DEPI
1.254
SGAI
0.721
TATA
0.067
LVGI
0.741

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.8138th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.8%31st pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The accounting signals are mixed. The Beneish M-Score is -1.5459 (79th percentile vs Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +0.38) indicating relatively more aggressive accounting metrics versus peers but below the US -1.78 cutoff; earnings-quality components show an elevated AQI (1.4935) and inventory/receivables signals (DSRI 1.0725, DEPI 1.2539) while total accruals (TATA 0.0673) are small. Fundamental-health indicators are strong: Altman Z-Score 12.14 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score 7/9.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.5459 (79th percentile among Vietnamese peers; higher values indicate more aggressive accounting relative to peers). The M-Score rose by +0.38 year-over-year, showing a material movement in the metric compared with the prior year.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.4935. AQI higher than 1 suggests increased non-current asset or non-standard asset balances (prepayments, long-term receivables, capitalized items) relative to sales.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.2539. DEPI > 1 indicates depreciation expense has fallen relative to prior-year implied depreciation (a sign that useful lives or depreciation methods/assumptions may have changed or that asset mix changed).
  • DSRI (Days' Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.0725. DSRI > 1 signals receivables grew faster than sales in the year, which can indicate looser credit terms or timing differences.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.2676. Rapid sales growth (SGI >1) can make earnings quality comparisons harder and can correlate with some aggressive accounting choices.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.81 (38th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). A ratio below 1 means reported profits have not fully converted into operating cash over the three-year window.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.8% of total assets (30th percentile). Although small in absolute terms, the company ranks low versus peers on this check, suggesting some off-cycle receivables/prepayments exist.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0673. While not large, positive accruals show profits are supported in part by accrual accounting rather than cash.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 12.14. This places the company in the 'safe' zone for bankruptcy distance by the Altman model.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 7/9. A score of 7 indicates generally strong financial fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity improvements, operating efficiency).
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 0.7213 (SGAI < 1). This indicates S,G&A expenses fell relative to sales, which can reflect operating leverage or cost control rather than accrual manipulation.
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.7414 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9109. LVGI < 1 indicates leverage declined year-over-year; GMI < 1 indicates gross margins improved or did not deteriorate, both supportive of healthier fundamentals.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (ex-minority) positive; parent net loss count = 0 years to FY2025. These statutory statement facts show retained earnings and equity are positive and there were no parent-level net losses in the window reported.
Ownership Risk

Shareholding is highly concentrated among institutions: Công ty TNHH Phát Triển VF 24.5%, Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại An Long 23.0%, Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại Sg 19.1%, Tổng Công ty Thương Mại Sài Gòn 18.3% — these four institutions together hold ~85% of shares; an individual, Lê Ngọc Khoa, holds 5.8%. Director-deal disclosures show 0 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration (one registrant, one registration without a volume) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30. Concentrated institutional ownership and limited insider sale registrations are notable governance facts to record.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note/schedule for 'long-term receivables' and 'prepayments to suppliers' to the 0.8% of total assets figure labeled 'receivables outside the trade cycle' to identify the line items behind AQI and the 0.8% metric.
  • Review the fixed-asset and depreciation note for FY2025 for changes in useful lives, depreciation methods or large asset revaluations to explain DEPI = 1.2539.
  • Reconcile sales, trade receivables and allowance-for-doubtful-accounts movements in the receivables aging and revenue note to investigate DSRI = 1.0725 and the 3-year cash conversion ratio (0.81).
  • Inspect the cash-flow statement (operating cash flows) and the reconciliation of profit to cash from operations for the three-year period used to compute cash conversion = 0.81 to see timing or non-cash drivers of profit.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
12.14
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.18
Negative
Composite
64
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.83×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.32×Turnover1.17×Leverage1.09=ROE33.6%
Price Risk
Momentum
+11.2%
Volatility
124.6%
Max Drawdown
−56.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
2.68P/E
P/B
0.90
P/S
0.71
ROE
39.9%
ROA
36.0%
EPS
48.433
BVPS
144.186
Gross Margin
33.0%
Net Margin
26.3%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
9.94
EV/EBITDA
0.97
Div Yield
1.5%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
10.8M
Charter Capital
108B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3)
Phân phối thực phẩm & dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Phân phối thực phẩm
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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