VPD
Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Điện lực Việt Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 20.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 23.946
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.6167th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.5%25th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows mixed accounting signals: the Beneish M‑Score is -1.3537 (82nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +2.42, indicating an above‑peer degree of earnings‑aggressiveness metrics rather than an absolute US cutoff breach. Strong solvency and fundamentals coexist with specific revenue/receivable concerns: Altman Z‑Score is 13.13 (safe zone) and Piotroski F‑Score is 9/9, while receivables and revenue quality scores are both 0/100 and DSRI is 1.9229.
- Beneish components: DSRI = 1.9229 (measures days‑sales‑receivables index; values >1 can indicate rising receivables relative to sales), AQI = 1.1758 (asset quality index; higher values can signal capitalizing costs or shifting to less‑liquid assets), SGAI = 1.1079 (sales, general & admin growth index; growth >1 indicates SG&A rising faster than sales), SGI = 1.1871 (sales growth index; measures sales growth), LVGI = 0.4540 (leverage growth index), TATA = -0.0206 (total accruals to assets; small negative accruals but not strongly conservative).
- Earnings‑quality sub-scores: Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these scores measure the extent that reported revenue and receivables patterns look like high quality — here they flag concerns).
- Earnings vs cash: Three‑year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.61 (67th percentile among Vietnamese non‑financials), which indicates profit is not fully converting to cash relative to peers (higher ratio here is a weaker signal in this ranking).
- M‑Score trajectory: Year‑over‑year change in M‑Score = +2.42 (the move started recently); Beneish scores have low year‑to‑year persistence, so the change is a secondary cue that accounting metrics have become more aggressive versus the prior year.
- Altman Z‑Score = 13.13 (measures distance from bankruptcy; this value is well into the safe zone).
- Piotroski F‑Score = 9/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of quality; a top score indicates strong profitability, liquidity and operating performance indicators).
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 and Cash conversion subscore = 94.0/100 (these measure that reported accruals and operating cash flow patterns are strong in the accruals and cash dimensions).
- Vietnamese statutory and solvency checks: No accumulated losses, owner's equity (ex‑minority) is positive, zero years of parent net loss to FY2025, and none of the statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are met — these are factual results in the audited statements.
Ownership is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Phát điện 1 holds 36.6% and Tepco Renewable Power Singapore Pte. Ltd. holds 30.0%, with a related listed group holder (PPC) at 10.6%; this large institutional and group ownership suggests potential influence by major shareholders and inter‑company relationships common in Vietnamese power sector groups. Director‑deal data show 1 purchase registration (200,000 shares) and 0 sale registrations between 2025‑10‑30 and 2026‑10‑30 (registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the change in trade receivables and the note for 'other receivables / loans to related parties' in FY2025 to the DSRI drivers shown (disclose the line items that caused DSRI = 1.9229).
- Reconcile revenue line items and recognition policies in the revenue note with any one‑off or timing items — the filings should show the basis for revenue recognition given Revenue quality = 0/100.
- Confirm the composition of 'prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables' in the disclosures that produce 'receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.5% of total assets' and inspect related‑party schedules.
- Verify the components behind the Altman and Piotroski inputs in the financial statement schedules (working capital, retained earnings, operating cash flow) to see how they produce Z = 13.13 and F = 9/9.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.36
- P/S
- 3.18
- ROE
- 17.3%
- ROA
- 14.9%
- EPS
- 2.462
- BVPS
- 15.240
- Gross Margin
- 55.6%
- Net Margin
- 37.7%
- D/E
- 0.01
- Current Ratio
- 3.22
- Rev Growth
- +20.4%
- Profit Growth
- +26.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.03
- Div Yield
- 1.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 107M
- Charter Capital
- 1,066B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Company Type
- CT