Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 21.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 21.621
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.0649th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.2%15th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting-quality concerns despite a benign solvency signal. The Beneish M-Score is -0.1026 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +0.86, driven mainly by a very high DSRI (2.7033) and elevated GMI (1.3048) and AQI (1.4718). At the same time, the Altman Z-Score is 8.98 (well inside the safe zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is low at 3/9, and earnings-quality metrics show very weak cash conversion (0/100) and receivables quality (0/100).
- Beneish M-Score -0.1026 (93rd Vietnam peer percentile, YoY change +0.86): the M-Score measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation; the company ranks more aggressive than 93% of Vietnamese peers and has a material upward trajectory year-over-year.
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 2.7033: this measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a DSRI well above 1 suggests receivables (or revenue recognition) are growing much faster than sales.
- Accruals / earnings signals: Earnings-Quality overall 30.3/100 with accruals quality 71.0/100 but Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100 — these measure the extent to which reported profit converts to cash and the quality/collectibility of receivables; both are effectively nil.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9: this score measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 3 indicates weak fundamentals and limited positive internal operating signals.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0724: this measures discretionary accruals relative to assets; a positive TATA indicates accruals are adding to reported profit rather than cash flows.
- Altman Z-Score = 8.98 (safe zone): this measures bankruptcy distance using working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value, and sales; the score indicates low short-term insolvency risk under the Altman model.
- DEPI = 0.9621 and SGAI = 0.8856: DEPI (depreciation index) below 1 implies depreciation expense has not been materially reduced; SGAI below 1 suggests selling/general/admin expenses have not been inflated relative to sales — both are not consistent with aggressive expense manipulation.
- LVGI = 0.7200 and SGI = 1.0149: low leverage-growth (LVGI) and near-1 sales growth index (SGI) suggest the company has not been exhibiting rapid growth financed by leverage that sometimes accompanies aggressive accounting.
Ownership is relatively concentrated: Công ty TNHH Quang Ngân Việt Nam holds 25.8% (institutional) while the listed individuals are registered at 0.0% in the provided table. The presence of a single large institutional shareholder (25.8%) indicates meaningful ownership influence; the company is listed on UPCoM (not HOSE/HNX), and the statutory listing-loss rule cited for HOSE/HNX does not apply to UPCoM.
- Compare FY2025 trade receivables, advances and "other receivables/loans to related parties" lines in the notes and the receivables aging schedule to assess the composition behind DSRI = 2.7033.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to parent net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes (statement of cash flows and auditor comments) to verify cash conversion = 1.06 (3-year) and Earnings-Quality cash-conversion 0.0/100.
- Inspect the related‑party transactions note for prepayments, loans, and balances with group companies or directors to see whether receivables outside the trade cycle (0.2% of assets) are concentrated in particular counterparties.
- Check the auditor’s report and any emphasis-of-matter/going-concern paragraph, plus the statutory financial statements for retained earnings and parent net profit lines, to confirm there are no accumulated losses and zero years of parent net loss up to FY2025.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.98
- P/S
- 3.03
- ROE
- 6.8%
- ROA
- 4.2%
- EPS
- 571
- BVPS
- 10.622
- Gross Margin
- 13.3%
- Net Margin
- 8.2%
- D/E
- 0.24
- Current Ratio
- 1.32
- EV/EBITDA
- 21.36
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 7.9M
- Charter Capital
- 79.1B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT