Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 2.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 2.692
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 52%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 6.0%72nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The accounting signals are mixed. The Beneish M-Score is -1.5895 (77th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of +1.42, indicating the company scores more aggressively than most Vietnamese peers and that the score has moved toward the manipulation side; component drivers include a high GMI (2.1156) and elevated LVGI (1.5068). Earnings-quality measures show very weak cash conversion (19.8/100) and zero scores on margin and revenue quality, while accruals and receivables quality are strong (95.8/100 and 100.0/100 respectively).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.5895 (77th percentile among Vietnamese peers; the YoY change of +1.42 shows movement in the score compared with the prior year). The M-Score is a model that aggregates eight ratios to detect earnings manipulation risk.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 2.1156, which measures deterioration in gross margins (values >1 indicate worsening gross margins year-over-year).
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.5068, which measures an increase in leverage relative to peers (values >1 indicate leverage rising).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.6893, indicating rapid sales growth (SGI >1 measures growth that can pressure earnings quality).
- Cash conversion component of the Earnings Quality Score = 19.8/100, signaling weak ability to convert accrual earnings into operating cash flow.
- Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100, indicating reported margins and revenue patterns score poorly on the applied metrics.
- Accruals quality = 95.8/100, which measures the extent to which earnings are driven by accruals rather than cash (high score suggests conservative accrual recognition).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100, and DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 0.7273 (DSRI <1 indicates receivables are not growing faster than sales), both suggesting receivables are not an obvious source of revenue inflation.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0105, a low value that measures the level of accruals relative to assets and is consistent with low accrual-driven earnings.
- Altman Z-Score = 2.78 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score = 5/9; together they indicate moderate financial health and neutral operating fundamentals rather than clear distress.
Shareholding is moderately concentrated: two individuals hold 9.6% and 9.3% respectively (combined ~18.9%), with two institutional holders at 5.5% each. Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and there are no accumulated losses in the published statements.
- Compare the FY2025 line(s) for prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables to the total assets to verify the 6.0% figure and the composition of the 6.0% flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and reported net income in the cash flow statement and notes to verify the cash-conversion weakness implied by the 19.8/100 cash conversion score.
- Inspect the revenue recognition note and the trade receivables aging/schedule to confirm the DSRI = 0.7273 interpretation and that receivables growth is not outpacing sales.
- Review the statement of changes in equity and the retained earnings/accumulated losses note to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025) are not met in FY2025.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.22
- P/S
- 0.55
- ROE
- 1.6%
- ROA
- 1.4%
- EPS
- 168
- BVPS
- 10.874
- Gross Margin
- 6.5%
- Net Margin
- 3.9%
- D/E
- 0.09
- Current Ratio
- 7.01
- Rev Growth
- +68.9%
- Profit Growth
- −26.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 8.96
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 120M
- Charter Capital
- 1,202B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT