Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.906
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −3.837th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 8.8%78th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting signals consistent with aggressive expansion of reported earnings: a Beneish M-Score of 2.4294 (98th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.19, and extreme component readings such as DEPI = 10.0000 and SGI = 3.0363. At the same time, solvency and some operating-quality metrics are mixed: Altman Z-Score is 3.16 (in the ‘safe’ zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, while statutory loss tests are not met and there are no accumulated losses on the balance sheet.
- Beneish M-Score = 2.4294 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using 8 accounting and performance ratios); this score places the company at the 98th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher score = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and rose by +2.19 year-over-year (the trajectory moved sharply).
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 10.0000 (component of the M-Score measuring change in depreciation rate; an elevated DEPI suggests unusually large shifts in depreciation policies or estimates).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 3.0363 (measures sales growth; a high SGI shows very rapid revenue growth which can correlate with aggressive recognition or stretched working-capital items).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.5238 (measures accrual-based earnings; a large positive TATA indicates significant accruals relative to assets, consistent with low accruals quality).
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -3.83 (7th percentile vs VN peers; this measures the extent profits convert into operating cash — a strongly negative value indicates profits are not translating into cash).
- Earnings Quality Score: 25.7/100 with accruals quality 0.0/100, cash conversion 0.0/100 and margin quality 0.0/100 (these individual metrics measure, respectively, accrual reliability, profit-to-cash conversion, and stability of margins; the zero scores indicate weaknesses).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures the collectibility and composition of receivables; a perfect score suggests receivables present less immediate concern).
- Revenue quality = 56.6/100 (measures persistence and reliability of reported revenue; a mid-range score indicates some support for reported sales).
- Altman Z-Score = 3.16 (measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and earnings inputs; a value above ~2.6 is typically classed as the ‘safe’ zone).
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; parent profit shows 0 consecutive years of net loss up to FY2025 (these are balance-sheet and statutory outcomes indicating the company has not breached loss-based thresholds).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 8.8% of total assets (78th percentile vs VN peers) — measurable and disclosed off-trade-cycle exposures are present but not extraordinarily large relative to peers.
Shareholding is concentrated among a small set of insiders and related entities: five top holders together account for 63.9% (Bùi Mạnh Hùng 14.3%, Tập Đoàn Bách Việt 14.0%, Trần Quang Vũ 13.5%, Nguyễn Thanh Hương 11.1%, Nguyễn Thị Hà Giang 10.0%). Director-deal registrations over 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 6 purchase registrations (5 traders; total 1,621,430 shares; 2 registrations without a volume) and 0 sale registrations — these are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades.
- Compare the 2025 depreciation policy note with the prior-year note and the fixed-asset rollforward to reconcile the driver of DEPI = 10.0000 (look for changes in useful lives, residual values or retrospective adjustments).
- Reconcile the components of operating cash flow and the related-party cash flow disclosures for FY2023–FY2025 to verify the drivers of the 3-year cash conversion ratio = -3.83 (inspect collections, non-cash adjustments and one-off working-capital flows).
- Inspect the receivables and other long-term receivables schedules (including prepayments to suppliers and loans receivable) and the related-party disclosures to detail the 8.8% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the audited statement and notes that support statutory-loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025) to confirm which, if any, thresholds are met — current figures indicate none were met in the published FY2025 statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.50
- P/S
- 0.46
- ROE
- 26.8%
- ROA
- 16.4%
- EPS
- 2.612
- BVPS
- 13.516
- Gross Margin
- 25.8%
- Net Margin
- 17.6%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 6.01
- Rev Growth
- +203.6%
- Profit Growth
- +780.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.92
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 12.0M
- Charter Capital
- 120B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Công nghiệp nặng
- Sub-industry
- Máy công nghiệp
- Company Type
- CT