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TSB

Công ty Cổ phần Ắc quy Tia Sáng

VietnamCyclicalsHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpĐiện tử & Thiết bị điệnHNXCT
16.000
VND · Close 29 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+7.0%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
16.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
17.118

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
51.5%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+2.0percentage points
Cyclicals12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−7.9+8.6
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện tử & Thiết bị điện→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Điện tử & Thiết bị điện” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→11.69B
Fair EV/EBITDA→10.6x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→16.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+7.0%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
17.118
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA11.7 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7

Analysis

TSB: Modest calibrated valuation gap amid weak profitability and forensic risk

The calibrated intrinsic value is VND 17,118 versus the current price of VND 16,000, a calibrated gap of 7.0% that is illustrative and not a forecast return.

Business Overview

Công ty Cổ phần Ắc quy Tia Sáng is a Vietnamese battery company listed on HNX in the electronics and electrical equipment sector. The available data do not break out products, customers, or segment economics, limiting assessment of its competitive position and exposure to particular end markets.

TSB is controlled by listed chemical group DGC, which owns 51.0% of the shares. Under VAS 25, ownership above 50% constitutes control. This may provide a strategic parent relationship, but the available information does not establish the extent of operational or financial support. The concentrated ownership also means minority shareholders have limited influence over corporate decisions.

Key points

Revenue increased from VND 157.5 bn in 2023 to VND 192.3 bn in 2025, but earnings have not followed that trajectory: net profit fell from VND 5.2 bn in 2024 to VND 2.1 bn in 2025. Latest ROE is 2.7%, net margin is 1.1%, and EBIT margin is 0.9%, indicating limited profitability relative to the current valuation multiples of 51.5x P/E and 17.1x EV/EBITDA.

The calibrated intrinsic value of VND 17,118 is 7.0% above the current price of VND 16,000. This is an illustrative estimate from an earlier version of the back-test, provided only for comparison with the last close; it is not a forecast, does not establish mispricing, and should not be interpreted as an investment opportunity. With earnings having weakened despite revenue growth, the key question is whether margins can recover sustainably.

The balance sheet indicators are not uniformly adverse: debt/equity is 0.46x, and three-year operating cash flow to net profit is 1.27x, around the 55.8th percentile versus Vietnamese peers. However, earnings quality is 30.5/100 and the Beneish M-Score risk assessment is moderate, warranting caution around reported earnings. The 4.4% dividend yield offers income support, but the available data do not provide a payout history or establish its sustainability.

Valuation Commentary

The supplied comparison uses an EV/EBITDA approach based on mid-cycle EBITDA. The calibrated intrinsic value is an illustrative estimate from an earlier version of the back-test, intended only for comparison with the last close.

  • Calibrated intrinsic value of VND 17,118 versus a current price of VND 16,000.
  • The supplied calibrated gap is 7.0%; it is not a forecast return or evidence of mispricing.
  • Latest EV/EBITDA is 17.1x, while P/E is 51.5x.
  • 2025 net profit was VND 2.1 bn, down from VND 5.2 bn in 2024, despite revenue growth over the three-year period.

The calibrated gap is a comparison with the last close, not a forecast return or a basis for concluding that the shares are mispriced. No validated track record exists for this estimate, and no model reliability assessment or outperformance probability is supplied; the weak latest profitability adds material uncertainty.

Points in favour

  • Revenue grew from VND 157.5 bn in 2023 to VND 192.3 bn in 2025.
  • Three-year operating cash flow to net profit was 1.27x, at the 55.8th percentile versus Vietnamese peers.
  • Debt/equity of 0.46x is below one times equity.
  • The latest dividend yield is 4.4%, although its sustainability cannot be assessed from the available data.

Points against

  • Net profit declined to VND 2.1 bn in 2025 from VND 5.2 bn in 2024, while revenue reached VND 192.3 bn.
  • Latest ROE is 2.7%, net margin 1.1%, and EBIT margin 0.9%, indicating thin returns and operating profitability.
  • Latest P/E of 51.5x and EV/EBITDA of 17.1x leave valuation sensitive to continued earnings weakness.
  • The M-Score risk level is moderate, with a Vietnamese-peer percentile of 84.7 and a year-on-year increase of 1.5719.
  • DGC controls 51.0% of TSB, concentrating voting power and limiting minority influence.

Sector Context

TSB is classified in the cyclical sector and in electronics and electrical equipment. Its revenue expanded over 2023–2025, but the 2025 decline in net profit highlights the importance of margins and earnings resilience in evaluating a cyclical manufacturer. The supplied data do not include peer margins, demand indicators, or input-cost information, so relative operating performance and cycle position cannot be established.

As an HNX-listed Vietnamese company, TSB is subject to local disclosure and listing requirements. No supplied figures indicate that it meets any of the stated statutory cancellation tests: accumulated losses are 0.0 times paid-in capital, consecutive net-loss years are 0, and equity excluding minority interests is not negative. These observations do not imply any exchange decision. DGC’s 51.0% holding constitutes control under VAS 25; the data do not establish whether this relationship produces operating or financing benefits for TSB.

Risk Factors

  • Earnings deterioration: net profit fell from VND 5.2 bn in 2024 to VND 2.1 bn in 2025, despite revenue increasing to VND 192.3 bn.
  • Thin profitability: latest EBIT margin is 0.9% and net margin is 1.1%, leaving earnings exposed to modest changes in costs or sales mix.
  • Valuation sensitivity: P/E is 51.5x and EV/EBITDA is 17.1x against low latest ROE of 2.7%; the supplied calibrated gap does not establish valuation support.
  • Forensic concern: M-Score risk is moderate, its peer percentile is 84.7, and it increased by 1.5719 year on year. The score is a screening signal, not proof of manipulation.
  • Earnings-quality uncertainty: the earnings-quality score is 30.5/100, despite three-year operating cash flow to net profit of 1.27x.
  • Ownership concentration: DGC controls 51.0% of the shares, potentially limiting minority shareholders’ influence over governance and capital allocation.
  • Cyclicality: the sector classification and decline in 2025 profit make earnings durability and recovery uncertain; no segment or demand data are provided to assess the cycle.

What could change the picture

  • A recovery in net profit from the 2025 level of VND 2.1 bn could improve the earnings case, but the available data provide no forward guidance.
  • Sustained revenue growth beyond the VND 192.3 bn recorded in 2025, accompanied by margin improvement, would help demonstrate operating leverage.
  • Future disclosures clarifying the drivers of the moderate M-Score risk and the low earnings-quality score could reduce uncertainty.
  • Evidence that the 4.4% dividend yield is supported by recurring cash generation could strengthen the income case.

Forensic Assessment

The Beneish M-Score is -1.2115, assessed as moderate risk, at the 84.7th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and up 1.5719 year on year. The conventional -1.78 cutoff was developed using a 1980s US sample and is crossed by a larger share of Vietnamese companies; the score should therefore be interpreted with its peer ranking and change, not as evidence of manipulation. Earnings quality is 30.5/100. Three-year operating cash flow to net profit is 1.27x, while receivables outside the trade cycle are 0.6% of assets, at the 26.4th percentile versus Vietnamese peers.

DGC’s 51.0% stake creates concentrated ownership. No insider or related-party trade registrations were recorded in the supplied 12-month window; registrations are not executed trades. The supplied listing-test indicators show no accumulated losses, no consecutive net-loss years, and no negative equity excluding minority interests, so none of those tests is met on the figures provided.

Track Record

No validated track record or hit rate is supplied for the calibrated intrinsic value. The calibrated estimate is explicitly an illustrative comparison from an earlier version of the back-test, not a validated forecast; its 7.0% gap should therefore be treated with caution. Model reliability and the probability of outperforming sector peers are unavailable.

Written by a language model on 2026-10-30 from this page’s own model outputs and financial statements, and may quote figures from that date. Descriptive analysis, not investment advice — no buy, sell or hold recommendation is given or implied.

Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·10396867469648189109868494102··
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·5611510.9462133··
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1932190000000000··
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·15131314121431163724272728··
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.70.10.0800.020.0000.50.50.210.20··
Net Inventories
·60454958504850666558566270··
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·60455058514951676558566371··
Other current assets
·413120.2020.910.610.6··
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000000.4··
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·22202328333442504648495560··
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000.030.10000.2000.820··
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000.030.10000.2000.820··
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·20202228333441504547485257··
Tangible fixed assets
·19192124293340454046413842··
Leased assets
·000230034061314··
Intagible fixed assets
·1111111111111··
Other non-current assets
·10.60.40.2000.20.50.60.30.41.03··
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·10.60.40.2000.20.50.40.30.41.02··
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·12411710910310398123139155133134148162··
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·473630242319456578606683118··
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·473629232119456577586175111··
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·362715109614375935456173··
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·10.03320.420.110.510.60.020.02··
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.20.20.20.820.100.020.020.92588··
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000.720000.81477··
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·77807979797978747773686544··
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·77807979797978747773686544··
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·67676767676767676767676767··
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·8887665555553··
Other Reserves
·000000000.050.050.050.050.05··
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·2544555241−5−7−29··
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·12411710910310398123139155133134148162··
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·67676767676767676767676767··
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
31
Weak
Accrual Quality
55
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
52
Margin Stability
36
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.21 · 85th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.57
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.095
GMI
1.253
AQI
2.240
SGI
1.056
DEPI
0.978
SGAI
0.925
TATA
0.119
LVGI
1.215

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.2756th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.6%26th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.2115, which is above the US-based -1.78 cutoff but sits at the 85th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and has risen year-over-year by +1.57 (an early accounting trajectory signal). Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 30.5/100) driven by very low cash- and revenue-quality scores (Cash conversion 0.0/100; Revenue quality 0.0/100), while balance-sheet distress indicators look mild (Altman Z-Score 4.58 — in the safe zone) and operational fundamentals are weak (Piotroski F-Score 2/9).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.2115 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios); it is at the 85th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting relative to VN peers) and increased by +1.57 YoY (the change signals a move in accounting profile even though the absolute US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly calibrated to Vietnam).
  • Very low cash conversion signal: Earnings Quality — Cash conversion = 0.0/100 (measures how reported profit converts into operating cash flow over time).
  • Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (measures persistence and cash backing of reported revenues).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 2/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency; a low score indicates weak fundamentals).
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.2398 (one Beneish component that rises when a company shifts to higher non-current or discretionary assets; high AQI can indicate capitalising items that might obscure true performance).
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.2151 (measures rising leverage; >1 indicates leverage increased year-over-year).
  • DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.0948 (measures receivable growth relative to sales; >1 can indicate slower collections or revenue recognition timing changes).
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1191 (measures accruals magnitude; a positive and material value suggests earnings are supported by accruals rather than cash).
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 4.58 (measures distance to bankruptcy; value in the 'safe' zone indicates low short-term insolvency risk).
  • Accumulated losses: none (undistributed earnings are not negative — a statutory/statement fact).
  • Statutory loss tests: none met under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended by Decree 245/2025 (the published statements do not meet the exchange cancellation trigger in those clauses).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.6% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; at 0.6% this is low and is at the 26th percentile among VN non-financials), and three-year cash conversion ratio = 1.27 (operating cash flow / net profit over three years; at 1.27 and the 56th percentile it is not among the weakest in Vietnam).
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.9777 and SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 0.9253 (both <1 indicate no obvious aggressive slowing of depreciation or rising SG&A relative to sales).
Ownership Risk

The company is majority-controlled: DGC holds 51.0% (control, disclosed 2026-06-30), with the next largest individual holdings at 3.0%, 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.5%. This concentrated, listed-group control (DGC listed) means related-party, group transactions and VAS disclosures may materially affect the statements; director-deal registrations were not provided in the data set.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the movement in receivables and the DSRI (1.0948) to the notes: reconcile trade receivables, prepayments and long-term receivables line items in the FY2025 financial statements and the related-party disclosures.
  • Match total operating cash flow and the accruals (TATA = 0.1191) in the cash flow statement and the notes: verify components of profit before tax versus cash from operations over the last three years to confirm the Cash conversion signal (Earnings Quality cash conversion = 0.0/100; three-year cash conversion = 1.27).
  • Review the fixed-asset schedules and depreciation policy disclosures given DEPI = 0.9777 and AQI = 2.2398: compare additions, revaluations, useful lives and capitalised development or other non-current asset increases in FY2025.
  • Check related-party transactions and group disclosures (DGC 51.0% owner): inspect the holders’ lists, related-party note and any intra-group balances, loans or guarantees disclosed in FY2025 to explain low receivables-outside-trade-cycle (0.6% of assets) and to identify concentration of transactions with the parent group.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
4.58
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−1.63
Negative
Composite
31
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.01×Turnover1.55×Leverage1.60=ROE2.7%
Price Risk
Momentum
−50.0%
Volatility
59.2%
Max Drawdown
−57.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
51.45P/E
P/B
1.39
P/S
0.56
ROE
2.7%
ROA
1.7%
EPS
311
BVPS
11.485
Gross Margin
11.7%
Net Margin
1.1%
D/E
0.46
Current Ratio
2.20
Rev Growth
+4.9%
Profit Growth
−59.8%
EV/EBITDA
17.08
Div Yield
4.4%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
6.7M
Charter Capital
67.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
Sub-industry
Hàng điện & điện tử
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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