Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 72.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 77.245
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.5%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.2556th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.1%11th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The M‑Score is -1.6364 (above the US −1.78 cutoff), with a Vietnam peer percentile of 76 and a year‑over‑year increase of +1.95; these indicate accounting signals that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have moved noticeably this year. Earnings‑quality submetrics show excellent accruals (100/100) and margins (100/100) but two clear weaknesses: receivables quality 0/100 and revenue quality 0/100. Credit/solvency metrics are benign: Altman Z‑Score 3.95 (in the ‘safe’ zone) and Piotroski F‑Score 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M‑Score −1.6364 (Beneish measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation; more positive values indicate more aggressive accounting): this is above the US −1.78 cutoff and at the 76th percentile among Vietnamese peers, and the M‑Score rose by +1.95 year‑over‑year (the YoY change signals a recent movement in the accounting profile).
- DSRI = 2.3222 (Days Sales Receivables Index; a high DSRI can indicate sales being recorded earlier than cash collection or rising receivables relative to sales): this value is materially elevated and supports the M‑Score movement.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 (this metric measures the likelihood receivables are collectible and reflect normal trade receivables): a score of 0 flags very poor receivables quality and aligns with the high DSRI and the 0/100 revenue quality.
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (measures the sustainability/quality of reported revenue): a 0 score indicates that revenue recognition patterns or supporting cash/receivable evidence are weak relative to peers.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 (measures the extent that earnings are supported by cash flows; high score indicates low abnormal accruals): strong signal that reported profit aligns with accounting accruals.
- Margin quality = 100.0/100 (assesses whether profit margins are stable/robust rather than driven by one‑off items): indicates healthy reported margins.
- TATA = −0.0191 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; small negative value indicates little reliance on positive accruals to boost profit): consistent with the high accruals quality score.
- Altman Z‑Score = 3.95 (a distance‑to‑distress bankruptcy score; values >3 typically indicate low bankruptcy risk): suggests comfortable solvency at the consolidated level.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.1% of total assets (this check measures prepayments, loans receivable and other non‑trade receivables): at the 11th percentile versus Vietnamese peers this is low, meaning minimal material long‑term receivables outside normal trade in the balance sheet.
Ownership is concentrated: Công ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Hóa chất Đức Giang Lào Cai holds 51.0% (a controlling institutional shareholder), and two individuals hold 9.0% and 7.7%. No director‑deal registrations were provided in the data (registrations are intentions recorded with the exchange, not executed trades). This concentration implies group/majority control which can influence related‑party transactions and accounting choices.
- Compare the year‑end trade receivables and the receivables ageing schedule in the FY2025 notes to revenue recognised in FY2025 to reconcile the high DSRI (2.3222) with cash collections.
- Inspect the note on receivables, loans to/from related parties and prepayments in the FY2025 financial statements to confirm the low ‘receivables outside the trade cycle’ (0.1% of assets) and to identify any related‑party terms.
- Match operating cash flow and profit components in the cash flow statement and notes to test the cash conversion ratio (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit = 1.25) and confirm the timing of cash receipts versus recognised revenue.
- Review the fixed‑asset and depreciation policy note and the movement table to contextualise DEPI = 0.9283 (Depreciation Index) and AQI = 0.4913 (Asset Quality Index) for any reclassification or capitalisation policy changes.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 3.09
- P/S
- 0.94
- ROE
- 59.4%
- ROA
- 28.9%
- EPS
- 13.729
- BVPS
- 23.438
- Gross Margin
- 22.8%
- Net Margin
- 17.8%
- D/E
- 0.30
- Current Ratio
- 1.37
- Rev Growth
- +11.7%
- Profit Growth
- +31.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.99
- Div Yield
- 17.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 25.0M
- Charter Capital
- 250B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT