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TRV

Công ty Cổ Phần Vận tải Đường sắt

VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiUPCOMCT
10.000
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+26.5%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
10.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
12.646

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
51.8%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+1.4percentage points
Construction12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−11.7+5.7
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→526.42B
Fair EV/EBITDA→5.5x
Years of data→2
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→10.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+26.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
12.646
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA526.4 tỷebitda source: sector normalized thin historyyears of data: 2
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item202620252024
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·723692
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·260225
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·11095
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·185173
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·107
Net Inventories
·151177
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·152183
Other current assets
·1722
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,5921,633
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.060.07
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.060.07
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·1,3301,486
Tangible fixed assets
·1,3231,479
Intagible fixed assets
·77
Investment in properties
·0.50.6
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0.80.8
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·0.80.8
Other non-current assets
·258143
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·258143
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2,3142,325
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1,5671,640
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·992969
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·9696
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·65
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·576671
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·575671
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·747685
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·747685
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·1,3041,304
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·55
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−561−623
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·2,3142,325
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·1,3041,304

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
100
Good
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 2.54 · 98th pctile vs VN companies
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.137
GMI
0.710
AQI
1.788
SGI
7.805
DEPI
0.166
SGAI
1.034
TATA
−0.072
LVGI
0.960

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.4%22nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.43×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The Beneish M-Score is 2.535 and ranks at the 98th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting among VN peers), driven by a very large sales growth index (SGI 7.8050) and an asset quality index (AQI 1.7881). At the same time, the company posts a perfect Earnings-Quality score (100/100) with accruals, cash conversion and receivables quality all 100/100, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 (strong fundamentals), and an Altman Z-Score of 2.47 (in the grey zone for bankruptcy distance).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 2.535 (Beneish cutoff -1.78 is US-calibrated; note ~28% of Vietnamese companies exceed that cutoff) and Vietnam peer percentile = 98th — this places TRV among the most aggressive-scoring Vietnamese companies on Beneish metrics.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 7.8050 — measures sales growth relative to prior year; such a high value indicates very rapid reported sales growth, which can pressure margins and working-capital metrics.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.7881 — measures increases in non-current assets or reclassification of expenses into assets; a reading above 1 suggests more assets or reclassified costs relative to sales than the prior year.
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.9603 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.1656 — DEPI well below 1 (0.1656) indicates reported depreciation expense fell sharply relative to prior-period depreciation, which can boost reported profits via lower depreciation charge.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0721 — negative accruals (−7.21% of assets) indicate cash-based strength but must be seen with other indicators (e.g., extreme SGI/AQI) for context.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.4% of total assets (22nd percentile among VN non-financials) — while small in absolute terms, the presence of prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables is a line-item to monitor given the AQI signal.
  • Accumulated losses = 0.43 × paid-in capital — accumulated losses amount to 43% of paid-in capital, a balance-sheet pressure point to note even though owner's equity (without minority interest) is positive.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score = 100.0/100 with Accruals quality 100/100, Cash conversion 100/100, Receivables quality 100/100 — these components measure the transparency and cash-backed nature of reported earnings and show high internal consistency in cash and accrual metrics.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 9/9 — measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 9 indicates strong short-term fundamentals by the Piotroski criteria.
  • Altman Z-Score = 2.47 — in the grey zone for bankruptcy distance (not in the distress cut-off), indicating neither clear health nor immediate financial distress under the Altman model.
  • DSRI (Days' Sales in Receivables Index) = 0.1366 — measures changes in receivables relative to sales; a low value here aligns with the low receivables-outside-trade-cycle figure (0.4% of assets) and supports the high receivables-quality rating.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Đường sắt Việt Nam (state-related institution) holds 87.3% of shares, with the next listed individuals showing 0.0% each. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data; registrations, if any, would be filings of intent rather than executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 line items for 'Prepayments to suppliers', 'Loans receivable' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the balance sheet to the related-party disclosures and the notes on related-party transactions.
  • Reconcile depreciation expense and the property, plant & equipment note between FY2024 and FY2025 to verify the components behind DEPI = 0.1656 (note changes in useful lives, additions, disposals or reclassifications).
  • Compare cash-flow-from-operations and the movements in working-capital lines (receivables, payables, inventories) in the cash-flow statement to validate the Cash conversion and TATA = -0.0721 accruals picture.
  • Check the statement of changes in equity and the statutory notes for the calculation supporting 'Accumulated losses = 0.43 × paid-in capital' and confirm the presentation of owner's equity excluding minority interests.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
9/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.47
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.81
Negative
Composite
51
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden3.05×Op. Margin0.00×Turnover2.23×Leverage3.10=ROE8.2%
Price Risk
Momentum
−25.7%
Volatility
48.5%
Max Drawdown
−35.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
21.22P/E
P/B
1.75
P/S
0.25
ROE
8.6%
ROA
2.6%
EPS
471
BVPS
5.729
Gross Margin
8.8%
Net Margin
1.2%
D/E
0.90
Current Ratio
0.73
Rev Growth
+679.8%
Profit Growth
+4387.9%
EV/EBITDA
5.50
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
130M
Charter Capital
1,304B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Đường sắt
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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