Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 12.646
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.8%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.4%22nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.43×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The Beneish M-Score is 2.535 and ranks at the 98th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting among VN peers), driven by a very large sales growth index (SGI 7.8050) and an asset quality index (AQI 1.7881). At the same time, the company posts a perfect Earnings-Quality score (100/100) with accruals, cash conversion and receivables quality all 100/100, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 (strong fundamentals), and an Altman Z-Score of 2.47 (in the grey zone for bankruptcy distance).
- Beneish M-Score = 2.535 (Beneish cutoff -1.78 is US-calibrated; note ~28% of Vietnamese companies exceed that cutoff) and Vietnam peer percentile = 98th — this places TRV among the most aggressive-scoring Vietnamese companies on Beneish metrics.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 7.8050 — measures sales growth relative to prior year; such a high value indicates very rapid reported sales growth, which can pressure margins and working-capital metrics.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.7881 — measures increases in non-current assets or reclassification of expenses into assets; a reading above 1 suggests more assets or reclassified costs relative to sales than the prior year.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.9603 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.1656 — DEPI well below 1 (0.1656) indicates reported depreciation expense fell sharply relative to prior-period depreciation, which can boost reported profits via lower depreciation charge.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0721 — negative accruals (−7.21% of assets) indicate cash-based strength but must be seen with other indicators (e.g., extreme SGI/AQI) for context.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.4% of total assets (22nd percentile among VN non-financials) — while small in absolute terms, the presence of prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables is a line-item to monitor given the AQI signal.
- Accumulated losses = 0.43 × paid-in capital — accumulated losses amount to 43% of paid-in capital, a balance-sheet pressure point to note even though owner's equity (without minority interest) is positive.
- Earnings Quality Score = 100.0/100 with Accruals quality 100/100, Cash conversion 100/100, Receivables quality 100/100 — these components measure the transparency and cash-backed nature of reported earnings and show high internal consistency in cash and accrual metrics.
- Piotroski F-Score = 9/9 — measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 9 indicates strong short-term fundamentals by the Piotroski criteria.
- Altman Z-Score = 2.47 — in the grey zone for bankruptcy distance (not in the distress cut-off), indicating neither clear health nor immediate financial distress under the Altman model.
- DSRI (Days' Sales in Receivables Index) = 0.1366 — measures changes in receivables relative to sales; a low value here aligns with the low receivables-outside-trade-cycle figure (0.4% of assets) and supports the high receivables-quality rating.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Đường sắt Việt Nam (state-related institution) holds 87.3% of shares, with the next listed individuals showing 0.0% each. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data; registrations, if any, would be filings of intent rather than executed trades.
- Compare the 2025 line items for 'Prepayments to suppliers', 'Loans receivable' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the balance sheet to the related-party disclosures and the notes on related-party transactions.
- Reconcile depreciation expense and the property, plant & equipment note between FY2024 and FY2025 to verify the components behind DEPI = 0.1656 (note changes in useful lives, additions, disposals or reclassifications).
- Compare cash-flow-from-operations and the movements in working-capital lines (receivables, payables, inventories) in the cash-flow statement to validate the Cash conversion and TATA = -0.0721 accruals picture.
- Check the statement of changes in equity and the statutory notes for the calculation supporting 'Accumulated losses = 0.43 × paid-in capital' and confirm the presentation of owner's equity excluding minority interests.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.75
- P/S
- 0.25
- ROE
- 8.6%
- ROA
- 2.6%
- EPS
- 471
- BVPS
- 5.729
- Gross Margin
- 8.8%
- Net Margin
- 1.2%
- D/E
- 0.90
- Current Ratio
- 0.73
- Rev Growth
- +679.8%
- Profit Growth
- +4387.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.50
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 130M
- Charter Capital
- 1,304B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Đường sắt
- Company Type
- CT