Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.821
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 28 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −4.706th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 55.8%99th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 1.4741 (97th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +5.18, indicating accounting signals that are unusually aggressive relative to Vietnamese peers and that moved materially this year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 20.4/100) driven by very poor cash conversion and receivables quality, while solvency and fundamentals are mixed (Altman Z-Score 3.00 in the safe zone; Piotroski F-Score 6/9).
- Beneish M-Score = 1.4741 measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight financial ratios; at the Vietnamese peer level this is the 97th percentile (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and the M-Score increased by +5.18 year-over-year (the change signals when accounting began to move). Note: the -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated and less directly applicable to Vietnam.
- DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 3.7347 measures receivables growth relative to sales; a DSRI this large suggests receivables (or revenue recognition) are growing much faster than sales.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = -4.70 (6th percentile among VN non-financials) measures the ability of reported profits to convert into operating cash; a negative, very low number indicates profits have not generated cash over the three-year window.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 55.8% of total assets (99th percentile) measures non-trade receivables such as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; this level is very large by Vietnamese peer comparisons.
- Earnings Quality Score = 20.4/100 with Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion = 0.0/100 — these component scores quantify low-quality earnings driven by accruals and non-cash items.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = 0.1566 measures accrual intensity; a positive, material TATA means earnings rely on accruals rather than cash.
- LVGI (Leverage/Variable growth index) = 1.5287 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.9030 show rapid revenue growth coupled with higher leverage/growth pressures, which can strain accounting choices when combined with weak cash conversion.
- Altman Z-Score = 3.00 places the company in the ‘safe zone’ for bankruptcy distance (the Z-Score combines profitability, leverage, liquidity, solvency and activity measures).
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 indicates neutral-to-favorable fundamental performance across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.9933 (near 1.0) measures the proportion of non-current, intangible and non-operating assets; a value near 1 suggests asset quality is not unusually deteriorated by itself.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.8547 and SGAI (SG&A Index) = 0.1940 — DEPI under 1 indicates recorded depreciation is faster (or that useful lives/expense recognition is higher) relative to prior period; SGAI very low suggests SG&A did not inflate relative to sales this period.
Ownership is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Địa ốc Sài Gòn holds 51.0% (institutional, likely a large state or group shareholder), with the next largest holders being individuals (Cao Toàn Thắng 6.5%, Lê Văn Gia 1.2%, Vũ Thị Thanh Thủy 0.8%) and another institution at 5.5%. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data set (director-deal registrations are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades).
- Compare the 2025 schedule/note for 'Trade and other receivables' and the 'Other long-term receivables / Loans receivable' note to quantify the 55.8% of total assets classified outside the trade cycle and identify counterparties and related-party designations.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes for FY2023–FY2025 to verify the components that produced the 3-year cash conversion ratio = -4.70 (check major non-cash adjustments, changes in working capital and one-off items).
- Examine the revenue recognition and sales breakdown notes (including aging of receivables and related-party revenue schedules) to assess the drivers of DSRI = 3.7347 and SGI = 1.9030.
- Review the note(s) on transactions with related parties, prepayments, loans to/from affiliates, and the fixed-asset / depreciation policy disclosures to explain the TATA = 0.1566, DEPI = 0.8547 and the large non-trade receivable balance.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.28
- P/S
- 3.26
- ROE
- 2.0%
- ROA
- 1.9%
- EPS
- 414
- BVPS
- 20.532
- Gross Margin
- 71.5%
- Net Margin
- 23.3%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 7.29
- EV/EBITDA
- 23.28
- Div Yield
- 6.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 8.1M
- Charter Capital
- 80.6B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT