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Công ty Cổ phần Địa ốc Tân Bình

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnUPCOMCT
5.800
VND · Close 29 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+34.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
5.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.821

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.110
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.97%
Ke
11.97%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.97%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→5.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+34.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.821
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)13.97%high risk: yes
Growth rate3.50%growth method: default
Base cash flow1.5 tỷone off strip ratio: 0.40

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
12.0%7.0817.0817.0817.0817.081
13.0%7.0817.0817.0817.0817.081
14.0%7.0817.0817.0817.0817.081
15.0%7.0817.0817.0817.0817.081
16.0%6.7656.7657.0817.0817.081
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·9289107111125147160172231189194201246
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1276335645408221505543
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·4062697135152500010200
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·2432021354753684516112273
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·230.20.030.040.100.0510.940.30.30.30.1
Net Inventories
·2721101322283763103152123103129
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·2721101322283763103152123103129
Other current assets
·0.10.0700.080.090.40.30.60.200.221
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000021
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·888769707077881079947595859
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·5454565656617594901.0100
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·5353535353535553530.010.0100
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·1222230.50.60.70.81.012
Tangible fixed assets
·1222230.50.60.70.81.012
Intagible fixed assets
·0.10.10.20000000000
Investment in properties
·2333444434333
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·26244444440.736515049
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·26262626262626262655515049
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·0−2−25−25−25−25−25−25−25−19−0.400
Other non-current assets
·0.20.40.30.30.710.7124444
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.10.30.20.20.40.70.10.20.10.2000
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·180176176181196223248279330237253259304
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·151091123425575141456575137
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1386610273044106434352115
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0000099990000
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·5000000.8149120.010.320
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·223513152431342232322
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0000021121300000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·165166167170172181193203189192188184167
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·165166167170172181193203189192188184167
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·81818181818181818181818181
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·66666666666666666666665454
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·19192024263547574345413924
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·180176176181196223248279330237253259304
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·2525252525353555104000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·81818181818181818181818181
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
20
Poor
Accrual Quality
45
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
41

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 1.47 · 97th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +5.18
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
3.735
GMI
0.912
AQI
0.993
SGI
1.903
DEPI
0.855
SGAI
0.194
TATA
0.157
LVGI
1.529

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−4.706th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
55.8%99th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is 1.4741 (97th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +5.18, indicating accounting signals that are unusually aggressive relative to Vietnamese peers and that moved materially this year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 20.4/100) driven by very poor cash conversion and receivables quality, while solvency and fundamentals are mixed (Altman Z-Score 3.00 in the safe zone; Piotroski F-Score 6/9).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 1.4741 measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight financial ratios; at the Vietnamese peer level this is the 97th percentile (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and the M-Score increased by +5.18 year-over-year (the change signals when accounting began to move). Note: the -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated and less directly applicable to Vietnam.
  • DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 3.7347 measures receivables growth relative to sales; a DSRI this large suggests receivables (or revenue recognition) are growing much faster than sales.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = -4.70 (6th percentile among VN non-financials) measures the ability of reported profits to convert into operating cash; a negative, very low number indicates profits have not generated cash over the three-year window.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 55.8% of total assets (99th percentile) measures non-trade receivables such as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; this level is very large by Vietnamese peer comparisons.
  • Earnings Quality Score = 20.4/100 with Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion = 0.0/100 — these component scores quantify low-quality earnings driven by accruals and non-cash items.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = 0.1566 measures accrual intensity; a positive, material TATA means earnings rely on accruals rather than cash.
  • LVGI (Leverage/Variable growth index) = 1.5287 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.9030 show rapid revenue growth coupled with higher leverage/growth pressures, which can strain accounting choices when combined with weak cash conversion.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 3.00 places the company in the ‘safe zone’ for bankruptcy distance (the Z-Score combines profitability, leverage, liquidity, solvency and activity measures).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 indicates neutral-to-favorable fundamental performance across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.9933 (near 1.0) measures the proportion of non-current, intangible and non-operating assets; a value near 1 suggests asset quality is not unusually deteriorated by itself.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.8547 and SGAI (SG&A Index) = 0.1940 — DEPI under 1 indicates recorded depreciation is faster (or that useful lives/expense recognition is higher) relative to prior period; SGAI very low suggests SG&A did not inflate relative to sales this period.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Địa ốc Sài Gòn holds 51.0% (institutional, likely a large state or group shareholder), with the next largest holders being individuals (Cao Toàn Thắng 6.5%, Lê Văn Gia 1.2%, Vũ Thị Thanh Thủy 0.8%) and another institution at 5.5%. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data set (director-deal registrations are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 schedule/note for 'Trade and other receivables' and the 'Other long-term receivables / Loans receivable' note to quantify the 55.8% of total assets classified outside the trade cycle and identify counterparties and related-party designations.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes for FY2023–FY2025 to verify the components that produced the 3-year cash conversion ratio = -4.70 (check major non-cash adjustments, changes in working capital and one-off items).
  • Examine the revenue recognition and sales breakdown notes (including aging of receivables and related-party revenue schedules) to assess the drivers of DSRI = 3.7347 and SGI = 1.9030.
  • Review the note(s) on transactions with related parties, prepayments, loans to/from affiliates, and the fixed-asset / depreciation policy disclosures to explain the TATA = 0.1566, DEPI = 0.8547 and the large non-trade receivable balance.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.00
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.22
Negative
Composite
49
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.77×Interest Burden1.07×Op. Margin0.28×Turnover0.08×Leverage1.09=ROE2.0%
Price Risk
Momentum
−9.2%
Volatility
78.4%
Max Drawdown
−34.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
14.00P/E
P/B
0.28
P/S
3.26
ROE
2.0%
ROA
1.9%
EPS
414
BVPS
20.532
Gross Margin
71.5%
Net Margin
23.3%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
7.29
EV/EBITDA
23.28
Div Yield
6.0%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
8.1M
Charter Capital
80.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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