Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 33.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 40.288
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.6267th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 25.4%93rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
SZG’s Beneish M-Score is -1.055 (87th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.75, indicating the company’s accounting is more aggressive than most local peers and has moved materially year-on-year. Other forensic signals show mixed quality: a low Earnings-Quality Score (25.0/100) driven by cash-conversion and receivables concerns, an Altman Z-Score of 1.29 (distress zone), and a neutral Piotroski F-Score of 5/9.
- Beneish M-Score -1.055, Vietnam peer percentile 87th and YoY change +2.75 — the M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation-style patterns (higher = more aggressive vs peers); the company ranks in the top ~13% for aggressiveness among Vietnamese non-financials and the M-Score rose materially year-over-year.
- DSRI = 1.3074 — Days’ sales receivables index above 1 suggests receivables growing faster than sales, a signal that sales or collectability may be aggressive.
- SGI = 1.4773 — Sales growth index substantially above 1 indicates rapid sales growth, which can stress controls and correlate with aggressive recognition.
- TATA = 0.0999 — Total accruals to total assets near 0.10, indicating non-cash accruals are a non-trivial portion of the balance sheet (this measure contributes to the M-Score).
- Earnings-Quality Score 25.0/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100 — the company’s reported profits are not translating into operating cash and receivables raise quality concerns.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 25.4% of total assets (93rd percentile) — a large portion of assets are prepayments/loans/long-term receivables rather than trade receivables, which raises collectability and classification questions.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.62 (67th percentile) — a relatively low standing; the ratio suggests profit is not being fully converted into operating cash compared with peers.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.29 (distress zone) — this composite financial-distress measure places SZG near the financial distress/bankruptcy distance zone.
- AQI (asset quality index) = 0.9689 — asset reclassifications/write-offs are not showing a large deterioration (AQI near 1 implies limited asset-quality write-ups relative to prior year).
- DEPI = 0.9583 — depreciation index below 1 suggests no reduction in depreciation rates or useful-life stretching that would inflate profits (it goes against an obvious depreciation-manipulation signal).
- SGAI = 0.5324 — selling, general & administrative expenses as a share of sales declined, which can reflect operating leverage or efficiency gains rather than expense capitalization.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 — a neutral score indicating mixed fundamentals (some improving and some weakening indicators rather than uniformly poor financial health).
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive and parent net loss = 0 consecutive years — the statutory headline equity/loss indicators are not in breach.
The largest shareholder is Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Khu Công nghiệp (institution) with 46.5% ownership, indicating concentrated, likely controlling interest; the largest individual holds 0.1%. A near-majority institutional owner suggests decisions and intra-group transactions could materially influence accounting and disclosures.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) on receivables and prepayments: quantify loans to related parties, prepayments to suppliers and long-term receivables that together make up the 25.4% of total assets.
- Reconcile the statement of cash flows (operating cash flow) to reported net profit for the last three years to confirm the components producing the 3-year cash-conversion ratio of 1.62.
- Inspect the revenue recognition and trade-receivable aging notes to verify the composition of receivables that produced DSRI = 1.3074 and to identify any concentration, related-party balances or extended terms.
- Review the fixed-asset note (useful lives, depreciation methods) and the reconciliation to prior-year carrying amounts to confirm the DEPI = 0.9583 and any changes in depreciation policy or revaluations.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.72
- P/S
- 2.79
- ROE
- 24.1%
- ROA
- 5.4%
- EPS
- 4.310
- BVPS
- 19.236
- Gross Margin
- 46.8%
- Net Margin
- 36.4%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 10.15
- Rev Growth
- +47.7%
- Profit Growth
- +28.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.64
- Div Yield
- 4.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 54.9M
- Charter Capital
- 549B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT