Back to Dashboard

SZG

Công ty Cổ phần Sonadezi Giang Điền

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnUPCOMCT
33.000
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+22.1%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
33.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
40.288

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.110
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.97%
Ke
11.97%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.97%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend9.95%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→33.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+22.1%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
40.288
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.97%high risk: no
Growth rate9.95%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow66.1 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth7.0%8.5%10.0%11.5%13.0%
10.0%42.97942.97942.97943.62144.497
11.0%42.97942.97942.97942.97942.979
12.0%40.52342.97942.97942.97942.979
13.0%40.42640.42640.52342.97942.979
14.0%40.28840.28840.42640.42642.979
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2,3151,7741,4471,4961,6151,658
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·7046484162188437
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·21934921925930212
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·1,2756601,0701,0861,0711,192
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·6016001,0361,0541,0371,151
Net Inventories
·116116112855317
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·116116112855317
Other current assets
·0.30.6430.30.4
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2,4792,1452,2432,1802,1801,665
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·61800000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·61800000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·211231244170163162
Tangible fixed assets
·205225237163155155
Intagible fixed assets
·677777
Investment in properties
·9721,2281,2881,2981,2971,316
Other non-current assets
·666674683680678159
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·666674683680678159
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·4,7933,9193,6903,6763,7953,323
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·3,7373,0112,9003,0053,1482,674
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·228213360303333266
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0013911013369
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·4451364
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3,5092,7982,5402,7022,8152,408
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·00110219582514
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·1,056908790670647649
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,056908790670647649
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·549549549549549549
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·1939457382721
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·314264183837178
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·4,7933,9193,6903,6763,7953,323
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·549549549549549549

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
25
Poor
Accrual Quality
60
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
52
Revenue Quality
14

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.05 · 87th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.75
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.307
GMI
1.275
AQI
0.969
SGI
1.477
DEPI
0.958
SGAI
0.532
TATA
0.100
LVGI
0.875

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.6267th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
25.4%93rd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

SZG’s Beneish M-Score is -1.055 (87th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.75, indicating the company’s accounting is more aggressive than most local peers and has moved materially year-on-year. Other forensic signals show mixed quality: a low Earnings-Quality Score (25.0/100) driven by cash-conversion and receivables concerns, an Altman Z-Score of 1.29 (distress zone), and a neutral Piotroski F-Score of 5/9.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.055, Vietnam peer percentile 87th and YoY change +2.75 — the M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation-style patterns (higher = more aggressive vs peers); the company ranks in the top ~13% for aggressiveness among Vietnamese non-financials and the M-Score rose materially year-over-year.
  • DSRI = 1.3074 — Days’ sales receivables index above 1 suggests receivables growing faster than sales, a signal that sales or collectability may be aggressive.
  • SGI = 1.4773 — Sales growth index substantially above 1 indicates rapid sales growth, which can stress controls and correlate with aggressive recognition.
  • TATA = 0.0999 — Total accruals to total assets near 0.10, indicating non-cash accruals are a non-trivial portion of the balance sheet (this measure contributes to the M-Score).
  • Earnings-Quality Score 25.0/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100 — the company’s reported profits are not translating into operating cash and receivables raise quality concerns.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 25.4% of total assets (93rd percentile) — a large portion of assets are prepayments/loans/long-term receivables rather than trade receivables, which raises collectability and classification questions.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.62 (67th percentile) — a relatively low standing; the ratio suggests profit is not being fully converted into operating cash compared with peers.
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.29 (distress zone) — this composite financial-distress measure places SZG near the financial distress/bankruptcy distance zone.
Positive Signals
  • AQI (asset quality index) = 0.9689 — asset reclassifications/write-offs are not showing a large deterioration (AQI near 1 implies limited asset-quality write-ups relative to prior year).
  • DEPI = 0.9583 — depreciation index below 1 suggests no reduction in depreciation rates or useful-life stretching that would inflate profits (it goes against an obvious depreciation-manipulation signal).
  • SGAI = 0.5324 — selling, general & administrative expenses as a share of sales declined, which can reflect operating leverage or efficiency gains rather than expense capitalization.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 — a neutral score indicating mixed fundamentals (some improving and some weakening indicators rather than uniformly poor financial health).
  • No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive and parent net loss = 0 consecutive years — the statutory headline equity/loss indicators are not in breach.
Ownership Risk

The largest shareholder is Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Khu Công nghiệp (institution) with 46.5% ownership, indicating concentrated, likely controlling interest; the largest individual holds 0.1%. A near-majority institutional owner suggests decisions and intra-group transactions could materially influence accounting and disclosures.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note(s) on receivables and prepayments: quantify loans to related parties, prepayments to suppliers and long-term receivables that together make up the 25.4% of total assets.
  • Reconcile the statement of cash flows (operating cash flow) to reported net profit for the last three years to confirm the components producing the 3-year cash-conversion ratio of 1.62.
  • Inspect the revenue recognition and trade-receivable aging notes to verify the composition of receivables that produced DSRI = 1.3074 and to identify any concentration, related-party balances or extended terms.
  • Review the fixed-asset note (useful lives, depreciation methods) and the reconciliation to prior-year carrying amounts to confirm the DEPI = 0.9583 and any changes in depreciation policy or revaluations.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.29
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.16
Negative
Composite
46
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.81×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.45×Turnover0.14×Leverage4.54=ROE22.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
+3.8%
Volatility
105.2%
Max Drawdown
−30.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.66P/E
P/B
1.72
P/S
2.79
ROE
24.1%
ROA
5.4%
EPS
4.310
BVPS
19.236
Gross Margin
46.8%
Net Margin
36.4%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
10.15
Rev Growth
+47.7%
Profit Growth
+28.0%
EV/EBITDA
2.64
Div Yield
4.5%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
54.9M
Charter Capital
549B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →