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SJE

Công ty Cổ phần Sông Đà 11

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuHNXCT
9.900
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+26.5%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
9.900
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
12.520

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→218.66B
Fair EV/EBITDA→7.2x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→9.900
Calibrated value vs last close→+26.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
12.520
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA218.7 tỷyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,8261,225623549695674732851758778748755725···
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·74115736679478520716324020911076···
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2120.08220.7610.616141819···
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·1,450876417310414453444434455358386425398···
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·149674519423617732814322525···
Net Inventories
·264218128165196170192165132159129174200···
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·264218128165196170192165132159129174200···
Other current assets
·161455536448492832···
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000002428···
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2,3081,4461,2951,3701,4331,4931,536908708678617163167···
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·2934384834293223242622910···
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.90.90.40.010.010.010.30.60.91300···
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·1,7631,1881,2341,2921,3571,4181,462770644618446150147···
Tangible fixed assets
·1,7541,1811,2271,2851,3501,4111,455764638612438112120···
Intagible fixed assets
·9777777777875···
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·47120720210000005···
Investments in associate companies
·37720600000000000···
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·95220210000005···
Goodwill
·0000000000000.6···
Other non-current assets
·441721283536413422242743···
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·1998101167554443···
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·4,1332,6711,9181,9192,1292,1672,2691,7591,4661,4561,364918892···
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·2,6911,7651,1671,2371,4691,5381,6311,2569701,032947628643···
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1,5511,275576547660657681669548696653563594···
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·960689259314356399351296232332241172162···
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·177159101708976961206854588063···
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1,1404915916908098819505874233362936549···
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1,0884495406307458519165674002742384423···
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·1,442906751682660628637503496424418279248···
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,442906751682660628637503496424418279248···
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·400242242220220220183116116116116116116···
Other Reserves
·202020202020202020202000···
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·329203203203203203201193161128676160···
Other Reserves
·20000000000000···
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·228259110604312603667381045122···
Minority Interest
·00000000000121···
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·4,1332,6711,9181,9192,1292,1672,2691,7591,4661,4561,364918892···
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·8000000.60.80.80.80.800···
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·400242242220220220183116116116116116116···
Good will (Bn. VND)
·24356810111317162100···
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·32711010510710210210210295857300···

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
12
Poor
Accrual Quality
21
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
43
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
90th–97th
M −0.36 · 92nd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −1.37
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
2.337
GMI
0.690
AQI
1.363
SGI
0.709
DEPI
1.438
SGAI
1.225
TATA
0.246
LVGI
0.989

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−1.8110th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
3.8%61st pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The accounting signals for SJE show elevated indicators of accrual-driven revenue recognition and receivables growth: a Beneish M‑Score of -0.3624 (92nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) driven by a high DSRI (2.3371) and DEPI (1.4376), with a year‑over‑year M‑Score change of -1.37 indicating a recent shift in the score. Earnings quality metrics are weak (11.7/100) with particularly poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables quality (0.0/100); the Altman Z‑Score of 0.87 places the company in the distress zone while the Piotroski F‑Score is 3/9, indicating weak operating and financial fundamentals.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score -0.3624 (92nd percentile vs VN peers): measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns; the peer percentile shows SJE scores more aggressively than most Vietnamese listed peers.
  • Year‑over‑year M‑Score change -1.37: this large move signals accounting metrics began to change materially this year (consecutive‑year M‑Scores have low correlation, so the trajectory is a secondary cue).
  • DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 2.3371: measures receivables growth relative to sales; a value >1 indicates receivables growing faster than sales and can signal premature revenue recognition.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.4376: measures changes in depreciation policy or useful lives; >1 suggests slower depreciation (or asset revaluation) that can inflate margins.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.3629 and SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 1.2254: both >1 indicate increases in non‑current and operating expenses relative to assets and sales, which can reflect capitalization or cost recognition shifts.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.2457 and Accruals quality 21.1/100: high accruals relative to assets and low accrual quality point to earnings driven by accruals rather than cash.
  • Cash conversion three‑year ratio = -1.81 (10th percentile): operating cash flow is not converting reported profits into cash, a low percentile among Vietnamese firms.
  • Altman Z‑Score = 0.87 (distress zone): measures bankruptcy distance; a low score is a sign of financial distress risk under the Altman model.
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 3/9: indicates weak recent improvements in profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 3.8% of total assets (61st percentile): the level of prepayments/loans/long‑term receivables is modest relative to Vietnamese peers.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.7085 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.6898: SGI <1 shows sales declined year‑over‑year (less pressure to inflate revenue), and GMI <1 indicates gross margins improved rather than deteriorated.
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.9894 (~1): leverage change is close to stable year‑over‑year rather than sharply increasing.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (ex minority interest) positive; and statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) not met: the published statements do not, on their face, meet Vietnam's statutory loss criteria for automatic cancellation.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Energy Việt Nam holds 56.0% and Tổng Công ty Sông Đà holds 10.2%, so institutional/group control is dominant. Director‑deal registrations in the last 12 months show one sale registration (25,000 shares, net registered -0.06% of shares outstanding); these are intentions registered with the exchange, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year‑over‑year change in trade receivables and revenue in the consolidated notes to accounts to reconcile the DSRI (2.3371) with line items for 'trade receivables' and 'revenue'.
  • Inspect the fixed‑asset note for changes in useful lives, depreciation methods or revaluations that explain DEPI = 1.4376 and the asset‑quality movements (AQI = 1.3629).
  • Reconcile cash flow from operating activities to reported net profit across the last three annual consolidated cash flow statements to verify the three‑year cash conversion ratio of -1.81.
  • Review the related‑party schedules and the 'receivables and prepayments' notes to confirm the composition of the 3.8% 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long‑term receivables).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
0.87
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−1.70
Negative
Composite
79
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.90×Interest Burden0.98×Op. Margin0.11×Turnover0.40×Leverage2.87=ROE11.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
−35.5%
Volatility
33.7%
Max Drawdown
−50.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
2.85P/E
P/B
0.36
P/S
0.24
ROE
14.7%
ROA
4.1%
EPS
3.513
BVPS
27.882
Gross Margin
22.0%
Net Margin
9.6%
D/E
1.42
Current Ratio
1.18
Rev Growth
−29.1%
Profit Growth
−9.2%
EV/EBITDA
7.38
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
40.0M
Charter Capital
400B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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