Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 8.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 12.001
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −2.0010th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 6.3%72nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M‑Score is 3.1454 (Vietnam peer percentile: 98th) with a year‑over‑year increase of +5.72, indicating its accounting behaviour is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially versus last year. Earnings quality is low at 18.7/100 with especially weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables quality (0.0/100), while the Altman Z‑Score of 6.13 shows distance from bankruptcy and the Piotroski F‑Score of 5/9 is neutral on fundamentals.
- Beneish M‑Score = 3.1454 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation-related patterns); Vietnam peer percentile = 98th (company ranks more aggressive than 98% of VN peers) and YoY change = +5.72 (the accounting profile shifted sharply year over year).
- DSRI = 6.5497 (days' sales receivables index; such a high value suggests sales are growing much faster than receivables or there are changes in receivables recognition or timing inconsistent with prior periods).
- Cash conversion (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit) = -2.00, 10th percentile among Vietnamese peers (measures profit-to-cash conversion; a low/negative value indicates reported profits are not converting to operating cash).
- Earnings Quality Score = 18.7/100 with component zeros: cash conversion 0.0/100, receivables quality 0.0/100, margin quality 0.0/100 (these measure respectively profit-to-cash conversion, the nature/timing of receivables, and persistence/quality of margins).
- TATA = 0.1209 (total accruals to assets; elevated accruals suggest earnings include non‑cash items that may be driving reported profit).
- Altman Z‑Score = 6.13 (measures distance to bankruptcy; this is in the 'safe' zone, indicating solvency metrics are comfortable).
- Piotroski F‑Score = 5/9 (measures nine binary signals of improving fundamentals; a mid score indicates neither clear deterioration nor strong improvement).
- DEPI = 0.8440 (depreciation index; <1 can indicate higher depreciation expense relative to prior period, which can be conservative rather than aggressive),
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (parent) is positive; Net loss in parent = 0 consecutive years up to FY2025 (these are statutory balance-sheet facts showing no persistent statutory losses).
Shareholding is highly concentrated: Liên Hiệp Hợp Tác Xã Thương Mại Tp. Hồ Chí Minh holds 96.1% (institutional), with the next listed individual owner shown as 0.0%. Such concentration implies control by a single dominant shareholder/group and exposure to group or state/cooperative objectives; director‑deal registrations were not provided in the supplied data.
- Compare FY2025 cash flow from operating activities (cash flow statement) with parent net profit on the income statement and the notes on reconciliation of profit to cash (verify the components driving the 3‑year cash conversion = -2.00).
- Inspect the receivables and prepayments schedules and related‑party disclosures to locate the items comprising 6.3% of total assets reported as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (verify classification as prepayments, loans receivable or long‑term receivables).
- Review the notes on revenue recognition and the trade‑receivables aging to reconcile the drivers of DSRI = 6.5497 (check for unusually rapid sales growth, changes in credit terms, or one‑off large receivable items).
- Examine the fixed‑asset and depreciation policy notes to understand the DEPI = 0.8440 movement and the composition of accruals that contribute to TATA = 0.1209.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.38
- P/S
- 9.24
- ROE
- 3.1%
- ROA
- 2.9%
- EPS
- 749
- BVPS
- 24.443
- Gross Margin
- 64.7%
- Net Margin
- 74.4%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 10.19
- Rev Growth
- +1.6%
- Profit Growth
- +71.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- 3.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 100M
- Charter Capital
- 1,000B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT