Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 8.764
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 21 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.1220th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 3.0%56th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.758 (Vietnam peer percentile 89th), with a year-over-year rise of +2.07; this indicates accounting measures that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and a notable upward trajectory, though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly decisive in Vietnam. Earnings-quality indicators are weak overall (Earnings Quality 22.7/100) driven by extremely poor cash conversion and receivables quality, while solvency and basic fundamentals look resilient (Altman Z-Score 5.48 — safe zone; Piotroski F-Score 5/9).
- Beneish M-Score -0.758 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation signals); company ranks in the 89th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and the M-Score rose by +2.07 year-over-year (a material directional change).
- DSRI 2.1102 (days-sales-receivables index; >1 can indicate revenue being recognized before cash collection or growth in receivables relative to sales).
- TATA 0.1562 (total accruals to total assets; low-to-moderate accruals but contrasted with other weak quality metrics).
- Earnings Quality 22.7/100 (composite measure of how much reported earnings are supported by cash and high-quality components).
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.12 (20th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; measures ability to turn reported profit into operating cash — negative and low relative ranking).
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 3.0% of total assets (56th percentile) — indicates receivables and non-trade receivable items contribute poorly to quality scores and there are material receivables/prepayments/loans classified outside the normal trade cycle.
- Revenue quality = 26.2/100 and SGIAI 1.1367 (SGA index >1 — selling, general & administrative expenses growing faster than sales), which may flag margin or recognition pressure on revenue and expense-side classification.
- Altman Z-Score 5.48 (measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet ratios; value in the 'safe zone' indicates low bankruptcy risk under the Altman framework).
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (measures nine fundamental signals; a middle/neutral score indicates mixed but not uniformly weak fundamentals).
- AQI 0.8861 and LVGI 0.8121 (asset quality and leverage/growth indices below 1 in parts of the Beneish components, which can indicate fewer red flags in fixed-asset write-offs or leverage-growth mismatch than in some peers).
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent company did not report net loss in any of the 0 years up to FY2025 — these are positive statutory/balance-sheet facts.
Top shareholder is Liên Hiệp Hợp Tác Xã Thương Mại Tp. Hồ Chí Minh (institution) with 12.3%; the next largest listed group stake is TLG at 1.9%, and the largest individuals hold 1.0%, 0.8% and 0.6%. Ownership is relatively dispersed with one institutional block at 12.3%, and director/insider registrations show net registered buying interest (+3.50% of shares outstanding) over the last year but registrations are intentions (not executed trades).
- Compare the 2025 schedule of trade receivables and the related-party note to quantify the 3.0% of total assets classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' and identify counterparty types (prepayments, loans receivable, other long-term receivables).
- Reconcile FY2023–FY2025 consolidated operating cash flows to consolidated net profit in the cash-flow statement and notes to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio of -0.12 and the components driving negative cash conversion.
- Review the revenue recognition note and the receivables ageing to assess the drivers of DSRI = 2.1102 (days-sales-receivables index) and any changes in credit terms or write-offs.
- Inspect the exchange disclosures for director-deal registrations (the filings dated 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30) to confirm the registered volumes (1 sale registration for 8,000 shares; 6 purchase registrations totalling 250,000 shares) and whether those registrations relate to repeat registrants.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.53
- P/S
- 4.08
- ROE
- 13.5%
- ROA
- 12.6%
- EPS
- 1.420
- BVPS
- 10.579
- Gross Margin
- 31.7%
- Net Margin
- 103.4%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 9.42
- Rev Growth
- +4.6%
- Profit Growth
- +0.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.88
- Div Yield
- 10.7%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 6.9M
- Charter Capital
- 69.2B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT