SHE
Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Năng Lượng Sơn Hà
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.590
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.0222nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.6%45th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.0302 (Vietnam peer percentile 87th; year-over-year change +0.79), indicating its pattern of accruals and earnings signals is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly decisive. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall score of 35.6/100 with very weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue quality (0.0/100) alongside perfect receivables quality (100.0/100). Other risk indicators: Altman Z-Score 2.40 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score 3/9 (weak fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.0302 (measures 8-variable composite intended to flag earnings manipulation patterns); Vietnam peer percentile = 87th (company scores more aggressive than 87% of VN peers) and YoY change = +0.79 (the M-Score moved materially this year).
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.9269 (measures deterioration in gross margins year-over-year; >1 suggests margins worsening), and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.8979 (measures sales growth; high growth can be associated with increased accounting risk).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = 0.1121 (measures accrual intensity; elevated accruals can reduce earnings quality).
- Earnings Quality composite = 35.6/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 (operating cash flow failing to convert reported profit over three years; Vietnamese cash-conversion metric = -0.02, 22nd percentile), and Margin quality = 9.5/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (all indicate weak earnings sustainability).
- Altman Z-Score = 2.40 (grey zone for bankruptcy distance; not clearly safe nor distressed).
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures nine fundamental signals; score of 3 denotes weak operating/financial improvements).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.6% of total assets (45th percentile); this suggests reported receivables and non-trade receivable items are not large relative to the balance sheet.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.4112 (measures the proportion of non-current assets; lower values can indicate fewer potentially opaque capitalized items), and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0356 (close to 1, indicating no large shift in depreciation policies).
- No accumulated losses and Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; net loss (parent profit) = 0 years in the last periods (the statements do not show statutory loss triggers).
- Listed-group control is clear (SHI holds 88.6%), which typically means consolidated disclosures and related-party lines should be present and consistent in filings.
Control is highly concentrated: SHI (Công ty Cổ phần Quốc tế Sơn Hà) holds 88.6% (disclosed 2026-04-03), with a second-listed group company NLS at 20.1% under the same parent. Individual and institutional public free float is small (largest public individuals/institutions: Hoàng Mạnh Tân 2.6%, ICBCAM-related fund 1.7%). This concentration implies significant parent influence over operations and disclosures; director-deal registrations were not provided in the data set.
- Compare the company’s consolidated operating cash flow for FY2023–FY2025 with consolidated net profit in the cash-flow note and the statement of cash flows to verify the three-year cash-conversion ratio (reported -0.02).
- Inspect the receivables/other receivables schedule and related-party disclosures to reconcile the 1.6% of total assets labelled 'receivables outside the trade cycle' and confirm their counterparty, maturity and interest terms.
- Review the related-party transactions and parent/group consolidation notes for transactions, balances or guarantees with SHI (88.6% owner) and other group companies (for example NLS) to assess the extent of intra-group flows and any large prepayments or loans.
- Examine the auditor’s report and the statutory-loss lines in the audited annual statements to confirm that none of the Decree 155/2020 (Art.120(1)(e) as amended) statutory loss tests are met for FY2025.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.47
- P/S
- 1.08
- ROE
- 8.0%
- ROA
- 4.5%
- EPS
- 193
- BVPS
- 2.505
- Gross Margin
- 7.7%
- Net Margin
- 3.4%
- D/E
- 0.55
- Current Ratio
- 2.04
- Rev Growth
- +90.7%
- Profit Growth
- +2.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 28.64
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 65.0M
- Charter Capital
- 650B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng gia dụng
- Sub-industry
- Đồ gia dụng lâu bền
- Company Type
- CT